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The CHF weakened initially (USDCHF moved higher) after the SNB signaled a willingness to intervene following its decision to keep rates unchanged on Thursday. The pair extended to a high of 0.7957, stalling just ahead of a downward-sloping trendline on the 4-hour chart.However, the upside momentum could not be sustained. Broad-based USD selling during the North American session triggered a rotation lower, pushing the price back below the 100-hour MA. A rebound during the Asian session lifted the pair back above that level (currently near 0.7885), but once again, buyers failed to maintain control.The pair has since rotated lower, dipping just below yesterday’s low before finding support near the rising 200-hour MA at 0.7869.With price now trading between the 100- and 200-hour moving averages, the short-term bias is neutral, and those MAs are the key directional barometers:Below the 200-hour MA (0.7869): Opens the door for a move toward a key swing area near 0.7837 (a level that held as support on Wednesday and has prior price memory). A break below that targets the 38.2% retracement at 0.7822.Above the 100-hour MA (0.7885): Shifts the bias back to the upside, with a retest of the 0.7900 natural resistance level. A break above that would increase bullish momentum and expose higher levels.In short, the market is in consolidation mode, with the battle between the 100- and 200-hour MAs setting up the next directional move.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
💡 DMK Insight
The SNB’s rate decision and intervention signals are shaking up USDCHF dynamics right now. With the pair hitting 0.7957 but failing to break through a key downward-sloping trendline on the 4-hour chart, traders should be cautious. This indicates a potential reversal or consolidation phase. The initial weakness of the CHF suggests that the market is reacting to the SNB’s stance, but the inability to maintain upward momentum raises questions about the sustainability of this rally. If USDCHF can break above that trendline, we might see a stronger bullish push, but if it retreats, it could signal a deeper correction. Keep an eye on the 0.7900 support level; a breach could lead to further downside. On the flip side, if the SNB follows through with intervention, it could create volatility not just in USDCHF but also in related pairs like EURCHF. Watch for any comments from SNB officials that might hint at future monetary policy shifts, as these could provide critical insight into market direction.
📮 Takeaway
Monitor USDCHF closely; a break above 0.7957 could trigger bullish momentum, while a drop below 0.7900 may signal a bearish reversal.
