Bitcoin 
Ethereum 
Tether 
BNB 
XRP 
USDC 
Solana 
TRON 
Lido Staked Ether 
Figure Heloc 
The market is sensing that energy prices will stay higher for longer as the US and Israel struggle to define a plan for peace and reopening the Strait of Hormuz.Trump today in a Truth Social post said it would be easy to re-open the strait and that the US was prepared to do it alone. The market doesn’t believe it as Brent crude oil is now up $4 to $112.68. There is also a crunch in natural gas, fertilizer, sulpher and other goods that normally flow from the area.With that, US 12-month inflation breakevens are now up to 5.3%. That’s a potentially crushing number of the US economy as it would almost certainly force the Fed to hike rates.That’s the highest level since March 2023 and comes in stark contrast to the disinflationary impulses we saw in December.It truly looked like the Fed was on its way to conquering inflation and now that’s all come undone. Earlier today, we got comments from Fed Governors Waller and Bowman that sounded like they were throwing in the towel on rate cuts, at least if the current energy regime continues. A year of +5% inflation would be badly damaging to the Fed’s credibility as they haven’t achieved their target at any point this decade.In terms of the Fed curve, there are now 7 bps of hikes priced in through December. That’s a dramatic reversal from in February when pricing was for 60 bps of easing in that time frame.
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.
š” DMK Insight
Energy prices are set to remain elevated, and here’s why that matters for traders: geopolitical tensions are driving volatility. With the US and Israel at an impasse over peace talks, the uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz could lead to supply disruptions. Traders should keep an eye on crude oil futures, especially if prices breach key resistance levels. If we see a sustained move above recent highs, it could trigger further buying interest, particularly from institutional players looking to hedge against inflation. On the flip side, if peace talks gain traction unexpectedly, we might see a sharp pullback in energy prices, so it’s crucial to monitor news closely. Watch for any developments in diplomatic efforts or military actions that could impact supply chains. In the short term, focus on the daily charts for crude oil; a break above $80 could signal a bullish trend, while a drop below $75 might indicate a reversal. Keep your risk management tight as volatility is likely to spike with any new developments.
š® Takeaway
Watch for crude oil to break above $80 for bullish momentum or below $75 for potential reversal; geopolitical developments will be key.
