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Prior 5.2%Employment change 84k vs -4k expectedPrior 52kAverage weekly earnings +3.9% vs +3.9% 3m/y expectedPrior +4.2%Average weekly earnings (ex bonus) +3.8% vs +4.0% 3m/y expectedPrior +4.2%; revised to +4.1%February payrolls change 20kPrior -11k; revised to 6kThere are quite a few positives to note, one that the BOE can be a little happier with at the balance. For one, the jobless rate is seen keeping steady in January and payrolls in February recorded a positive estimate (alongside a positive revision for January too). Besides that, wage pressures are also seen moderating further with real earnings ex bonus now dropping to +0.5% – matching the three months from April to June last year (which was the softest in two years).All that being said, this would’ve been a decent report for the BOE to work with in teeing off another rate cut. That had it not been for the US-Iran conflict and now having to consider higher oil prices and a more stubborn inflation outlook.As such, the report here is very much dated as market players and policymakers will need a better snapshot. And that means one that includes capturing the impact of the latest developments on price pressures.Besides that, ONS continues to warn of data quality issues with the report again. But hey, what else is new.
This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.
💡 DMK Insight
The latest employment data shows a surprising 84k job increase against an expected decline, which could shift market sentiment significantly. With average weekly earnings holding steady at 3.9%, the Bank of England (BOE) might feel more pressure to adjust interest rates. This could lead to increased volatility in the GBP, especially if traders start pricing in a more hawkish stance from the BOE. The upward revision of February’s payrolls to 20k also suggests a stronger labor market than previously thought, which could bolster consumer spending and economic growth. However, the mixed signals in wage growth—where earnings excluding bonuses fell short of expectations—might temper enthusiasm. Traders should keep an eye on the GBP/USD pair, particularly if it approaches key resistance levels. A break above these could signal a bullish trend, while failure to maintain upward momentum might lead to a pullback. Watch for reactions from institutional players, as they often set the tone in response to such economic indicators.
📮 Takeaway
Monitor the GBP/USD closely; a breakout above recent resistance could indicate a bullish trend, especially with the BOE’s potential policy shifts.
