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Figure Heloc 
FUNDAMENTAL
OVERVIEWWe saw a classic “sell the
fact” reaction last week after the G7 economies and the IEA agreed to release a
record 400 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves. Despite that, oil
prices climbed back into triple-digit territory as hopes for a quick end to the
war faded and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continued.Trump is now pushing for
military escorts in the Strait and urging other nations to join the effort. So
far, no country has signed on that as nobody wants to get directly involved in
the conflict. Even if they did, it’s unlikely that oil prices would drop much.Trump reiterated yesterday
that oil prices would “drop like a rock” once the war ends, and he’s absolutely
right. The key issue, though, is the timing. When pressed on that, he remained
vague, as usual, but admitted it’s not happening this week.Until we see real
de-escalation, the path of least resistance for oil prices is still to the
upside, with limited room for a meaningful correction.CRUDE OIL
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can
see that crude oil is consolidating between the 93.00 support and the 100.00
handle. There’s not much we can glean from this timeframe, so we need to zoom
in to see some more details. CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL
ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the consolidation between the 93.00 support and the 100.00
handle. The buyers will likely continue to step in around the support with a
defined risk below it to keep pushing into new highs, while the sellers will
look for a break lower to pile in for a drop back into the 80.00 handle next.CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL
ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we
have a minor downward trendline defining the recent pullback into the support. The
sellers will likely continue to lean on the trendline with a defined risk above
it to keep pushing into new lows, while the buyers will look for a break higher
to increase the bullish bets into new highs. The red lines define the average daily range for today.UPCOMING CATALYSTSTomorrow we have the US PPI report and the FOMC policy decision. On Thursday, we
get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. The focus remains on the US-Iran war,
so keep an eye on the headlines, especially those regarding the Strait of
Hormuz.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.
💡 DMK Insight
Oil prices bouncing back into triple digits after a strategic reserve release is a big deal for traders. The G7’s decision to release 400 million barrels was expected to ease supply concerns, but the market’s reaction shows deeper issues at play. With geopolitical tensions still high, particularly regarding the ongoing war, traders are realizing that short-term fixes might not address long-term supply constraints. This ‘sell the fact’ behavior indicates that market participants are skeptical about the effectiveness of such measures. For day traders and swing traders, this volatility could present opportunities, especially if oil prices break key resistance levels. Watch for the $100 mark as a psychological barrier; a sustained move above could trigger further buying momentum. Conversely, if prices falter, it could signal a return to bearish sentiment. Keep an eye on related markets like energy stocks and ETFs, as they often move in tandem with oil prices. The real story is how these geopolitical factors will continue to influence supply and demand dynamics in the coming weeks. Traders should monitor inventory reports and OPEC’s next moves for additional signals.
📮 Takeaway
Watch for oil prices around the $100 mark; a break above could lead to significant buying, while failure to hold may signal bearish sentiment returning.
