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The USD made new highs vs the EUR, JPY and GBP for the year today, but is seeing some corrective action ahead of the dump of data today. At 8:30 AM ET:PCE is expected to rise by 0.3% MoM and 2.9% YoY. The core is expected at 0.4% MoM and 3.1% YoY (vs 3.0% last month). Durable goods orders for January are expected at 1.2% versus -1.4% last month. Ex transportation is expected at 0.5% versus 1.0% last month. NonDef Cap goods are expected at 0.5% versus 0.8%.GDP 2nd revision is expected 1.4% change from the previous estimate.In the video above, I take a look at the 3 major currency pairs from a technical perspective. With the dollar moving to ahigh, and backing off, there is risk of a failure and disappointment. What would increase the disappointment for the 3 major currency pairs is the important take away from the morning video today.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
💡 DMK Insight
The USD’s recent highs against the EUR, JPY, and GBP signal a strong dollar trend, but today’s data dump could shift momentum. With the PCE data set to release at 8:30 AM ET, traders should be on high alert. A 0.3% MoM increase in PCE and 2.9% YoY could reinforce the Fed’s hawkish stance, potentially pushing the USD even higher. Conversely, if the data disappoints, we might see a quick pullback. Watch how the USD reacts around key levels—if it holds above recent highs, it could indicate further strength. But if it slips, particularly below support levels against these currencies, it might trigger a broader risk-off sentiment. Here’s the thing: while the dollar’s strength is impressive, it’s crucial to consider the broader implications on commodities and equities. A stronger dollar often pressures gold and oil prices, so keep an eye on those correlations as well. Also, monitor how institutional players react to the PCE numbers; their positioning could dictate market direction in the short term.
📮 Takeaway
Watch the PCE data closely; a strong reading could push the USD higher, while a miss might trigger a pullback, especially if it falls below recent support levels.
