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investingLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Russia gets some oil sanctions relief from Trump

Japan warns on oil price impact, signals FX action as USD/JPY nears 160ICYMI – Tesla wins UK licence to supply electricity to householdsUS, EU and Japan advance critical minerals trade deal with price floor planPoor US decision-making process underestimated Iran’s willingness to disrupt HormuzPBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.9007 (vs. estimate at 6.8888)FX option expiries 13 March 2026 New York cut (10:00 ET)Australia to release 762 million litres of fuel after easing stockpile rulesReuters poll: RBA seen raising cash rate to 4.10% on March 17, then 4.35% by end-2026US grants temporary license allowing sale of Russian oil cargoes already loaded (oil TACO)Five pipelines that can bypass the Strait of Hormuz. But not replace it.Asia’s refineries built for Gulf crude, making Hormuz disruption hard to replaceIran says it will not close Strait of Hormuz but asserts right to secure waterwayNew Zealand manufacturing PMI holds at 55 in February, strongest run since 2021More from Bessent, says we know Iran has not mined the Strait of HormuzIsraeli officials say Iran’s regime unlikely to fall soon despite war pressureStocks tumble as oil surges 8%, pressure spreads across sectorsIran says its not going close Strait of HormuzinvestingLive Americas market news wrap: Risk rout intensifies with oil near $100At a glance:Oil gains were contained after the U.S. issued a temporary licence allowing sales of Russian oil already at sea.The Trump administration framed the move as a short-term measure to stabilise global energy markets amid the Iran conflict.Japan and other Asia-Pacific nations are preparing around $30bn in energy and critical minerals deals with U.S. companies.Australia plans to release around 20% of fuel reserves to address supply shortages.FX markets were subdued with USD/JPY drifting toward 159.50, while Asia-Pacific equities were mixed.It was a subdued session across Asia-Pacific markets, with price action largely contained as traders digested developments in energy markets and geopolitics.Oil prices remained elevated but upside momentum was somewhat capped after the United States issued a Russia-related general licence allowing the sale of Russian crude oil and petroleum products that were already loaded onto vessels.Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Trump administration would allow countries to purchase Russian oil currently stranded at sea as a temporary measure aimed at increasing global supply and stabilising energy markets. The licence effectively provides a 30-day sanctions waiver for cargoes already in transit, giving traders and refiners time to complete transactions while avoiding further disruption to supply.The move comes as Washington attempts to contain energy market volatility triggered by the conflict involving Iran and disruptions around key shipping routes.In broader energy news, Japan and several Asia-Pacific partners are expected to unveil at least $30 billion in agreements with U.S. companies during a visit by Trump administration officials to Tokyo this weekend. The deals are expected to include purchase commitments and investment across sectors such as coal, oil, liquefied natural gas and nuclear power, as Washington promotes deeper regional cooperation on energy security and critical minerals supply chains.Meanwhile, Australia announced it will release roughly 20% of its fuel reserves, a measure aimed primarily at addressing supply shortages that have already emerged in rural and regional areas.In currency markets, activity was relatively muted. The U.S. dollar traded in narrow ranges across major pairs, with USD/JPY edging back toward the 159.50 level as traders remained alert to the risk of potential intervention should the pair approach 160 and above.Equity markets across the region were mixed. Japan’s Nikkei underperformed, while broader regional indices saw modest movement. U.S. equity index futures were slightly firmer, pointing to a steadier tone heading into the next global trading session.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

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💡 DMK Insight

Japan’s warning on oil prices is a big deal for traders right now. With USD/JPY nearing 160, the Bank of Japan might have to step in to stabilize the yen. This could lead to increased volatility in the forex market, especially for pairs involving the yen. Traders should keep an eye on oil prices, as rising costs can impact Japan’s trade balance and economic outlook. If oil continues to climb, we might see a shift in monetary policy, which could trigger sharp moves in USD/JPY. Additionally, the ongoing discussions around critical minerals and the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could create ripple effects across commodities and related currencies. Watch for key resistance levels in USD/JPY around 160, as a break could signal a more aggressive intervention from the BoJ. On the flip side, if oil prices stabilize or decline, it could ease pressure on the yen and provide a short-term relief rally. Traders should monitor the upcoming economic data releases and geopolitical developments closely, as these could influence market sentiment significantly.

📮 Takeaway

Keep an eye on USD/JPY near 160; any intervention from the BoJ could lead to significant volatility in the forex market.

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