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Figure Heloc 
Prior +0.3%HICP +1.1% vs +1.1% y/y prelimPrior +0.4%The HICP is the more important measure as that’s what the ECB targets. The final figure matches the preliminary estimate, so there’s nothing to see here.The data hasn’t been much of importance for the market anyway as the focus remains on the US-Iran war and the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz which is keeping oil prices elevated.The market is pricing in two rate hikes for the ECB by year-end. In my opinion, these expectations are overblown as that would just increase the pressure on stock markets, tighten financial conditions further and exacerbate the negative impact on the broader economy.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.
💡 DMK Insight
The HICP data came in as expected, but here’s why that doesn’t matter right now: With the focus shifting to geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Iran, traders should be wary of how these external factors could overshadow economic indicators. While the HICP figures are stable, they aren’t driving market sentiment at the moment. Instead, the volatility stemming from geopolitical developments could create significant price swings across various assets, including forex pairs and commodities. Keep an eye on how the EUR/USD reacts; if tensions escalate, we might see a flight to safety that could push the dollar higher against the euro. Moreover, the market’s indifference to the HICP suggests that traders are prioritizing risk management over economic data. This could lead to unexpected movements as positions are adjusted in response to news. Watch for any sudden shifts in sentiment, especially if the US-Iran situation escalates. The key levels to monitor are the recent highs and lows in the EUR/USD pair, as they could signal the next move based on geopolitical developments.
📮 Takeaway
Focus on the EUR/USD reaction to US-Iran tensions; key levels to watch are recent highs and lows for potential volatility.
