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India’s inflation rate increases to 3.2% in February, slightly above consensusIndia reportedly sees first oil vessel reach its port since the US-Iran conflict startedUS futures step with caution as Middle East conflict drags onThe S&P 500 bias turns bearish again as traders don’t buy Trump’s jawboning anymoreGBPUSD rejects a major trendline as US dollar bids return amid renewed risk aversionIEA chief confirms release of 400 million barrels in strategic in oil reservesGold fails to sustain the breakout as prospects for a quick end to the war fadeWhat are the main events for today?Middle East energy disruption shifts EUR/USD risks to the downside – DanskeFX option expiries for 12 March 10am New York cutOil prices continue to be the tail that is wagging the dogChina has reportedly called for immediate ban on fuel exports for MarchIt’s been an unusually calm session with very limited news releases and no economic data. The IEA chief confirmed the release of 400 million barrels in strategic oil reserves, which is the largest ever. The hope is that oil prices stabilise until the US reaches all its goals, but if if doesn’t work, the only option will be to stop the conflict.The markets are currently in a defensive mood as Trump’s jawboning strategy isn’t working anymore. In fact, the markets largely ignored Trump yesterday when he told Axios that there’s practically nothing left to target in Iran and that the war will end soon. On Monday, those same words triggered a strong relief rally.In the American session, the main highlight will be the US Jobless Claims data. Initial Claims are expected at 215K vs 213K prior, while Continuing Claims are seen at 1850K vs 1868K prior.As I’ve been repeating since the start of the war, the data doesn’t matter now because it’s old news at this point. With Jobless Claims it might be different because they are the timeliest data on the labour market but unless we get big deviations like Initial Claims above 260K or Continuing Claims above 1900K, it’s unlikely to be market-moving.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.
💡 DMK Insight
India’s inflation uptick to 3.2% is a signal for traders to watch closely. With inflation slightly above consensus, it raises questions about the Reserve Bank of India’s next moves on interest rates. A sustained rise could lead to tighter monetary policy, impacting the Indian rupee and related assets. The recent geopolitical tensions, particularly the oil vessel reaching India amid US-Iran conflicts, could further complicate the economic landscape. Traders should monitor how these factors influence crude oil prices, as fluctuations could ripple through the forex market, especially affecting USD/INR. The S&P 500’s bearish bias indicates that broader market sentiment is shaky, which could lead to increased volatility across asset classes. If the GBP/USD is rejecting key levels, it might signal a shift in sentiment that could affect other currency pairs as well. Keep an eye on the upcoming economic data releases and geopolitical developments, as they could provide critical insights into market direction and trading strategies moving forward.
📮 Takeaway
Watch for how India’s inflation impacts the rupee and related forex pairs, especially if it leads to shifts in monetary policy.
