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Nasdaq rebounds as oil prices ease and Trump suggests the war could end soon. What’s next?US February NFIB small business optimism index 98.8 vs 99.6 expectedECB policymakers stress patience, assess if energy price shock is temporary or notFrench finance minister says “not there yet” with regards to release of oil reservesThe risk mood continues to perk up as we get into European tradingGold remains stuck in a tight range as traders await new catalysts to trigger a breakoutAUD/USD already looking to eye the highs for the year as the market mood picks upWhat are the main events for today?There is 180 million barrels of disruption so far, says Saudi Aramco CEORBA policymaker Hauser says oil price and Middle East volatility is a “genuine challenge”FX option expiries for 10 March 10am New York cutThe wild ride continues in the oil marketIt’s been a pretty calm session with no major news or data releases. The sentiment in the markets is cautiously optimistic after Trump told CBS yesterday that “the war could be over soon”. We got a taste of what is likely to come when we get the real de-escalation as Trump’s words triggered a quick relief rally with stocks surging, oil selling off and the US dollar weakening. Traders are now looking forward to the de-escalation, so the upside in the war premium should be limited.The French finance minister said that they are not there yet with regards to release of oil reserves. It looks like they are just trying to “jawbone” oil prices by keeping this option on the table and being ready to use it.We’ve got a couple of ECB policymakers stressing patience on monetary policy as they continue to assess the impact of higher energy prices. All policymakers are of course hoping this war ends soon, so it doesn’t require making a hard decision between focusing on inflation and risking a recession or prioritise growth and risk another inflationary spiral.In the American session, we get the weekly US ADP jobs data which hasn’t been a market moving report for a long time, and it’s unlikely to be so today. The focus is solely on the war because that’s going to influence the data in the future. The data we are getting now is all pre-war, and therefore old news.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.
💡 DMK Insight
The Nasdaq’s rebound signals a potential shift in market sentiment, but traders should stay cautious. With oil prices easing, there’s a ripple effect on inflation expectations, which could influence the Fed’s next moves. The NFIB small business optimism index coming in lower than expected at 98.8 suggests that small businesses are feeling the pinch, which could dampen consumer spending and growth. This is crucial as it may lead to a more dovish stance from the Fed if economic indicators continue to weaken. Keep an eye on the ECB’s assessment of energy prices; their patience could signal a longer-term strategy that impacts the euro and related assets. If oil prices stabilize or drop further, sectors like transportation and consumer discretionary could see a boost, but volatility remains a concern. Watch for key levels in the Nasdaq; a break above recent highs could indicate further bullish momentum, while a drop back below support levels would signal caution. Traders should monitor the upcoming economic data releases closely, particularly any shifts in sentiment from small businesses and energy prices, as these could dictate market direction in the near term.
📮 Takeaway
Watch for Nasdaq levels; a break above recent highs could signal bullish momentum, while a drop below support may indicate caution.
