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Figure Heloc 
Rate cuts by year-endFed: 35 bps (99% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)BoE: 13 bps (87% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)SNB: 8 bps (93% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)Rate hikes by year-endRBA: 55 bps (58% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)BoJ: 48 bps (92% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)RBNZ: 43 bps (95% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)ECB: 23 bps (92% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)BoC: 18 bps (94% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)You can find last week’s market pricing here.This week was all about the US-Iran war and the surging energy prices amid the basically blocked Strait of Hormuz. This has led to a hawkish repricing across the board as traders focused on the inflation risk and the central banks’ inability to cut rates. In fact, central banks are now in a tough spot. If they cut rates to support the economy, it could lead to more serious problems with inflation in the future. On the other hand, if the economy weakens and they wait hoping for the event to be “transitory”, they could end up with a recession.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.
đź’ˇ DMK Insight
With the Fed, BoE, and SNB signaling stability, traders need to recalibrate their strategies accordingly. The current probabilities suggest a strong likelihood of no rate changes in the near term, which could lead to a period of consolidation in forex pairs, particularly those involving USD, GBP, and CHF. Traders should be aware that the RBA’s potential hike could create volatility in AUD pairs, especially if it diverges from the broader trend of stability. This environment may favor range trading strategies as markets digest these signals. Keep an eye on key levels: for USD pairs, watch the 1.10 level against the EUR, as a break could indicate a shift in sentiment. The real story is how these central bank decisions will ripple through related assets—equities may react positively to the stability, while commodities could see mixed results depending on demand forecasts. As we approach the next Fed meeting, monitor the economic indicators closely; any surprises could lead to rapid shifts in market sentiment.
đź“® Takeaway
Watch the 1.10 level on EUR/USD as a potential breakout point, especially with central banks signaling stability ahead of their meetings.
