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The consensus is for a softer reading in the headline non-farm payrolls figure, following the strong showing in January. The first month of the year typically has seasonal factors imbued and this time, we are expected to see job gains of 59k.One known downside factor is the United Nurses Associations of California/Union of Health Care
Professionals (UNAC/UHCP) strikes, which will reflect around 31k striking workers over the payrolls
reference period. The health physicians on strike will be absent from the payrolls figure having not worked through 26 January to 23 February. Of note, this will be the largest strike activity impact on the labour market report since October 2024 (the Boeing worker strike).As such, just keep in mind to factor in that number as that will eventually return in the March payrolls figure.Besides that, poorer weather conditions could have also been a drag on the reporting figures for February. Bad weather due to winter storms in late January could have adversely impacted the collection of the household survey. So, that’s something to take note of amid concerns of data quality issues. Although, I would argue markets will still take the numbers at face value for the most part.As for the unemployment rate, that is expected to keep steady at 4.3% again. The January figure was 4.28% unrounded, which surprised to the positive side. That being said, analysts are flagging potential risks of a slight uptick to 4.4% on the month.Of note, the likes of BofA, Wells Fargo, and TD Securities all estimate the jobless rate at 4.3% but highlight risks of it coming in at 4.4%. Meanwhile, JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs both anticipate the unemployment rate to tick a little higher to 4.4% as their baseline estimate.You can find the major analyst estimates as per Bloomberg’s survey below (h/t @ MNI). I’ll be back with more detailed previews tomorrow.
This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.
💡 DMK Insight
A softer non-farm payrolls figure could shake up market sentiment, especially if the actual number deviates from the expected 59k. Traders should be on high alert for how this data influences the USD and broader equity markets. A lower-than-expected payroll number might lead to a weaker dollar, which could boost commodities like gold and oil. Conversely, if the figure surprises to the upside, expect a stronger dollar and potential pressure on risk assets. Given the seasonal adjustments typically seen in January, this reading could be more volatile than usual. Watch for reactions in the forex market, particularly with USD pairs, as well as in indices like the S&P 500, which often correlate with employment data. The real story here is how traders position themselves ahead of this release—are they leaning bullish or bearish? Keep an eye on the 59k mark; a miss could trigger a sell-off, while a beat might lead to a rally in risk assets.
📮 Takeaway
Watch the non-farm payrolls closely; a figure below 59k could weaken the dollar and boost commodities, while a surprise could shift market dynamics significantly.
