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We are going to get a bounce in Asian stock markets today but the question is: How high.Nikkei futures are trading at 56,310 versus the close yesterday of 54,245 in the cash market. That’s a healthy 3.8% rally following a 3.6% decline yesterday. I should warn that cash prices don’t always follow futures and with volatility this high, there will be two-way trading.The chart tells something of the story. Yes, the decline yesterday was a blow but the index remains up 7.7% year-to-date and a whopping 45% in the past year. The market likes the low multiples in Japanese stock markets and some of the technology.The Bank of Japan leader reiterated plans to continue with rate hikes and that’s not a surprise given rising energy prices. The Japanese PMI yesterday also hit a two-year high in a sign of a cyclical uplift.Eyes will also remain on Korea after the 11% decline yesterday. The drop was blamed on retail as a frenzy into domestic stocks from Korean investors unwound. That’s some real Bill Hwang stuff in what’s turned into a crazy market.The Japanese move has been more measured and that’s why I think it’s a better barometer on whether the selling will stabilize.Ultimately, the economy and interest rates — not the war — will determine what comes next for markets. The complication is that that the war is pushing up oil and natural gas prices, which could force central banks to hike rates or be more hawkish incrementally. But when I look out the crude curve, the market is pricing in a short-term disruption. December WTI is only up to $65 from $62 before the bombs and $58 in the pre-war build up. Even if we double or tripled the anticipated length of the war to 8 or 12 weeks, the year-end outlook for energy could revert.
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.
💡 DMK Insight
Asian markets are poised for a bounce, but traders need to gauge the sustainability of this rally. Nikkei futures are up 3.8%, rebounding from a significant 3.6% drop yesterday. This volatility signals a potential short-term trading opportunity, but the real question is whether this bounce can hold. Look for resistance around the previous highs to determine if this rally has legs. If the Nikkei can break above the recent highs, it could trigger further buying, but a failure to hold these gains might lead to another sell-off. Keep an eye on global sentiment and any economic data releases that could impact market direction. The broader context shows that while a bounce is expected, it’s essential to monitor for signs of weakness or reversal. Traders should watch the 56,500 level closely; a break above could indicate a stronger bullish trend, while a drop back below 56,000 might suggest a return to bearish sentiment. Also, consider how this bounce might affect correlated markets like the Hang Seng or S&P 500, as they often move in tandem with the Nikkei.
📮 Takeaway
Watch the 56,500 resistance level on the Nikkei; a break could signal further upside, while a drop below 56,000 may indicate renewed bearish pressure.
