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Prior +0.3%HICP +1.1% vs +0.7% y/y expectedPrior +0.4%The bigger jump in the annual estimates is largely tied to base effects, as electricity prices had fallen more sharply in February 2025. That being said, the monthly estimates also show a rebound in prices with headline inflation up 0.8% in February. That follows the 0.3% decline in January. The bump this month is the biggest monthly gain in prices since February 2024.Looking at the bigger picture, food price inflation picked up a little and is seen up to 2.1% from 1.9% last month. That compares with 0.3% in the same month one year ago. As for services inflation, that is seen up marginally as well to 1.8% from 1.7% last month. Compared to February last year, the estimate was 2.2%.
This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.
💡 DMK Insight
Inflation data just came in hotter than expected, and here’s why that matters: The HICP rising 1.1% year-over-year against a 0.7% forecast signals potential tightening from central banks. This could lead to increased volatility in both forex and crypto markets as traders adjust their positions based on interest rate expectations. A monthly increase of 0.8% in February suggests that inflationary pressures are not just a base effect; they could be indicative of a broader trend. Keep an eye on the euro against the dollar, especially if the ECB reacts more aggressively than anticipated. If inflation continues to rise, we might see a stronger euro, impacting USD pairs and possibly pushing crypto prices down as risk appetite wanes. But don’t overlook the flip side: if the market overreacts, we could see a short-term pullback in the euro, creating a buying opportunity for savvy traders. Watch for key levels around the recent highs and lows in EUR/USD, as well as any comments from ECB officials that could signal their next moves. Timing is crucial—this data could shift sentiment quickly, so stay alert.
📮 Takeaway
Monitor the EUR/USD pair closely; a stronger euro could emerge if inflation pressures lead to aggressive ECB action.
