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Australian business investment edges higher as renewables drive capex upgrade.Summary:Q4 private capex +0.4% q/q (0% exp), prior +6.4 (data post here)Annual growth accelerated to +7.8% y/y.Buildings & structures +2.3%; equipment -1.7%.Non-mining investment at record high in real terms.2025/26 capex estimate lifted to A$199.3bn (+4.3% revision).First 2026/27 estimate A$158.4bn (~A$160bn pipeline).Strength concentrated in renewables and data centres.Australian private capital expenditure edged higher in the December quarter, delivering a modest upside surprise and reinforcing the resilience of business investment heading into 2026.Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed capex rose 0.4% q/q in Q4 2025, beating expectations for a flat outcome following a sharp 6.4% surge in Q3. Annual growth lifted to 7.8%, with total quarterly spending reaching A$49.3bn, the strongest level since early 2015.The composition of spending was constructive. Investment in buildings and structures rose 2.3%, supported by strength in renewable energy projects, including battery, wind and solar developments. In contrast, plant and machinery investment fell 1.7%, retracing part of the prior quarter’s data-centre-driven surge. Despite the pullback, equipment spending remains up 9.2% across the second half of 2025.Importantly, non-mining investment has now reached a record high in real terms, a positive signal not only for Q4 GDP but also for Australia’s medium-term productivity outlook.Forward indicators were encouraging. Firms upgraded their expected spending for 2025/26 to A$199.3bn, a 4.3% increase on the previous estimate of A$191.3bn. The first estimate for 2026/27 came in at A$158.4bn, suggesting roughly A$160bn in the pipeline.The combination of renewable infrastructure expansion and ongoing digital investment underscores a structural shift in capital allocation across the economy. While quarterly volatility remains evident, the broader trend in private investment appears firm.For policymakers, the data point to sustained domestic demand momentum even as broader economic growth moderates.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
💡 DMK Insight
Australian business investment is showing resilience, and here’s why that matters for traders: The latest data reveals a 0.4% quarter-on-quarter increase in private capex, despite expectations of stagnation. This uptick, alongside a robust annual growth rate of 7.8%, indicates a strong underlying economic momentum, particularly in the renewables sector. Non-mining investment hitting record highs suggests a shift in capital allocation that could influence various sectors, including construction and technology. Traders should keep an eye on the implications for the Australian dollar and related commodities, as increased investment typically signals confidence in economic stability. However, the decline in equipment investment by 1.7% raises questions about potential weaknesses in operational capacity. This could lead to volatility in sectors reliant on heavy machinery and technology. As we look ahead, the revised capex estimates for 2025/26 at A$199.3 billion and 2026/27 at A$158.4 billion should be monitored closely, as they may impact market sentiment and investment flows. Watch for how these figures influence the Australian dollar against major currencies, particularly if the trend continues into the next quarter.
📮 Takeaway
Keep an eye on the Australian dollar’s performance as business investment trends could signal shifts in market sentiment, especially with capex estimates rising.
