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Japan’s Nikkei seen surging to 60,750, extending historic record-breaking run

Strategists see near-term consolidation for the Nikkei before earnings growth and foreign inflows drive a break above 60,000 by 2027.Summary:Nikkei seen at 57,500 by mid-2026Forecast lifted from November poll60,750 projected by mid-2027Foreign inflows acceleratingAI theme supportive but selectiveCorrection risk viewed as limitedJapan’s Nikkei 225 is expected to trade largely sideways in the near term before resuming its upward trajectory and breaking through the 60,000 milestone by mid-2027, according to a Reuters poll of equity strategists.The benchmark, which has risen more than 13% year-to-date, recently touched a record intraday high above 58,000 following Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s landslide snap election victory. Strong corporate earnings and expectations of supportive fiscal policy have underpinned sentiment, helping lift the median mid-2026 forecast to 57,500, up modestly from current levels but significantly higher than projections made late last year.While analysts see limited upside through June, they broadly anticipate a period of consolidation rather than a meaningful pullback. The rapid advance in recent months has heightened valuation concerns, but strategists expect time, rather than price weakness, to ease stretched conditions. By end-2026, the index is seen approaching 58,500, before climbing toward 60,750 by mid-2027.Foreign inflows remain a key pillar of the bullish medium-term view. Government data show overseas investors were net buyers of ¥1.42 trillion in Japanese equities in the week to February 14, the largest weekly inflow since October, reinforcing momentum as global allocators increase exposure. A solid domestic earnings backdrop is expected to keep attracting capital.Artificial intelligence continues to support selected sectors, particularly semiconductors, chip equipment and data-centre infrastructure, as long as US hyperscalers maintain spending. However, some technology segments, including software, have seen heavier selling amid concerns about AI-driven disruption.Looking ahead, most analysts view the risk of a 10% correction over the next three months as low. Even if US equities experience volatility, any spillover into Japan is expected to be contained.Overall, the consensus points to consolidation near record highs before a renewed earnings-driven push toward fresh milestones.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

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💡 DMK Insight

The Nikkei 225’s forecast suggests a sideways trend until 2026, but here’s why that matters now: With the index currently around 57,500 and projected to hit 60,000 by 2027, traders should be cautious of consolidation phases. This could mean limited volatility in the near term, which often leads to lower trading volumes. However, foreign inflows are picking up, indicating institutional interest that could support a breakout. The AI theme is also a double-edged sword; while it can drive growth, it’s selective and may not benefit all sectors equally. Watch for earnings reports that could provide catalysts for movement. On the flip side, if the Nikkei fails to maintain momentum, we could see a correction that might catch traders off guard. Key levels to monitor are the 57,500 support and the psychological 60,000 resistance. Keeping an eye on foreign investment trends and sector performance will be crucial for positioning ahead of potential shifts. The immediate focus should be on earnings announcements in the coming months, as they could set the tone for the index’s trajectory.

📮 Takeaway

Watch the Nikkei 225 closely around the 57,500 level; earnings reports in the coming months could trigger significant movement.

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