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Prior +0.4%Retail sales +4.5% vs +2.8% y/y expectedPrior +2.5%; revised to +1.9%Retail sales ex autos, fuel +2.0% vs +0.2% m/m expectedPrior +0.3%Retail sales ex autos, fuel +5.5% vs +3.6% y/y expectedPrior +3.1%; revised to +2.5%That’s an impressive beat in terms of the monthly figure, with the headline being the largest monthly rise since May 2024. The most notable thing about the jump is that UK retail sales volumes are now flat when compared to the pre-pandemic level in February 2020.Looking at the details, there were impressive jumps in food store sales (+1.2%), other non-food store sales (+5.3%), household goods store sales (+3.2%), and non-store retailing (+3.4%) on the month. That is offset slightly by a fall in department store sales (-1.3%).Overall though, the less volatile three-month growth rate in UK retail sales only reflects a 0.1% increase. And when you exclude autos and fuel, it actually shows a 0.1% drop in retail sales. As such, the report isn’t as impressive as it might indicate at first glance.Still, it is an impressive report nonetheless with ONS attributing the big jump in non-food store sales to strong sales volumes in commercial art galleries during January 2026. That is despite poorer weather conditions with UK seeing above average rainfall in the first month of the year, resulting in lower footfall in January 2026.
This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.
💡 DMK Insight
Retail sales just jumped 4.5%, and here’s why that matters: stronger consumer spending could shift market sentiment. This significant beat against expectations signals robust economic activity, which might prompt traders to reassess their positions in related markets. For instance, if consumer confidence continues to rise, we could see upward pressure on equities, particularly in consumer discretionary sectors. Additionally, a strong retail sales report often correlates with increased inflation expectations, which could impact forex markets, especially USD pairs. Traders should keep an eye on the upcoming Federal Reserve meetings, as this data could influence interest rate decisions. Watch for key resistance levels in related assets, particularly if the S&P 500 starts breaking above recent highs. But don’t overlook potential risks; if inflation spikes too quickly, it could lead to aggressive rate hikes, which might spook the markets. So, while the current sentiment is bullish, be prepared for volatility as the implications of this data unfold.
📮 Takeaway
Watch for how this retail sales data influences the S&P 500 and USD pairs, especially if consumer confidence continues to rise.
