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Prior 54.0Manufacturing PMI 52.0 vs 51.5 expectedPrior 51.8Composite PMI 53.9 vs 53.2 expectedPrior 53.7Key Findings:Rebound in UK private sector business activity
continues in February, but job losses persistComment:Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P
Global Market Intelligence:
“The early PMI data for February bring further signs of an
encouraging start to the year for the UK economy. A solid
rise in output across manufacturing and services has been
reported in both January and February, with the rate of
expansion gaining pace. The survey data so far this year
are consistent with GDP rising by just over 0.3% in the first
quarter if this performance is sustained into March.
“The upturn continues to be led by the service sector but
there are signs that manufacturing is regaining momentum
to join in the recovery, reporting a surge in export orders of a
magnitude not seen since the pandemic.
“Despite enjoying higher demand for goods and services,
companies remain focused on boosting productivity to cut
costs, resulting in yet another month of steep job losses to
prolong the continual jobs downturn that was initiated by
the 2024 autumn Budget.
“Higher staffing costs, often attributed to Budget policy
changes, meant service sector inflation remained
elevated. However, increased competition, especially in the
manufacturing sector, is helping keep a lid on inflationary
pressures.
“Bank of England policymakers will be encouraged by the
indications of stronger economic growth, but the relatively
modest price pressures being signalled and ongoing
worrying labour market weakness will likely result in a
growing call for further rate cuts.”
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.
💡 DMK Insight
The UK PMI data shows a rebound in private sector activity, and here’s why that matters: With the Manufacturing PMI at 52.0, beating expectations of 51.5, and the Composite PMI at 53.9, above the forecast of 53.2, traders should note that this indicates a strengthening economy. However, persistent job losses signal underlying weaknesses that could affect consumer spending and overall growth. This mixed picture could lead to volatility in GBP pairs, especially if the Bank of England reacts to these indicators in upcoming meetings. Watch for key resistance levels around 1.2500 in GBP/USD, as a break above could signal further bullish momentum. Conversely, if job losses continue to rise, it might trigger a bearish sentiment, pushing the pair back towards 1.2300. Here’s the flip side: while the positive PMI readings are encouraging, they might not be enough to offset concerns about the labor market. If traders focus solely on the positive numbers, they could overlook the potential risks ahead. Keep an eye on the upcoming employment data for more clarity on the job market’s health, as this will be crucial for gauging the sustainability of the current economic rebound.
📮 Takeaway
Monitor GBP/USD closely; a break above 1.2500 could signal bullish momentum, while job data will be key for assessing risks.
