RBNZ’s Breman flags possible year-end hike, but says policy stays accommodative

Governor Breman reinforced the RBNZ’s “accommodative for some time” stance while acknowledging a possible year-end hike, stressing any move depends on stronger growth and inflation pressure and that normalisation would be gradual. Summary Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Anna Breman reinforced the post-decision message: policy stays accommodative, with only gradual normalisation ahead.Breman said there is a possibility of a rate hike by year-end, but the OCR track is conditional on the economy evolving as expected.She stressed the Bank is not planning to hike until it sees a stronger economy and clearer inflation pressure.Breman noted a Q4 hike is not fully priced into the Bank’s projected path.Housing: the RBNZ does not expect a fast rise in house prices.New Zealand’s central bank used its post-decision press conference to reinforce a carefully balanced message: policy remains accommodative for now, but the door is slightly more open to a first rate hike later this year if the recovery and inflation pressures firm.Following the decision to hold the Official Cash Rate at 2.25%, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Anna Breman said the projected OCR track should be read as conditional rather than a pre-commitment. The profile is “based on how we see the economy evolving,” she noted, echoing the Monetary Policy Committee’s statement that settings are likely to remain supportive “for some time” and will only normalise gradually as the recovery strengthens and inflation moves sustainably toward the 2% midpoint.Breman acknowledged there is a “possibility” of a rate hike by the end of the year, a nuance that aligns with the Bank’s updated projections and the earlier shift in emphasis versus November. But she also pushed back against any interpretation that the RBNZ is gearing up for a rapid tightening cycle. The central bank is “not planning to hike until we see a stronger economy” and “more inflationary pressure,” she said, underscoring that the near-term baseline remains one of patience.In a detail likely to draw attention in markets, Breman said a fourth-quarter move is not fully priced into the Bank’s projected OCR path. In other words, while the track allows for the possibility of a year-end hike, it does not assume an aggressive or mechanical step-up — consistent with the statement’s guidance that accommodation will be withdrawn only gradually.On the housing market, Breman said the RBNZ does not expect to see a fast rise in house prices. That framing fits with the broader assessment that households remain cautious and the recovery is still at an early stage — factors that would normally argue for a measured approach to normalisation.For investors, the takeaway is continuity with a subtle shift: the RBNZ is inching the timing conversation forward, but it is still setting a high bar for action and signalling that any hiking phase, if it begins, is likely to be slow.Pretty dovish from the RBNZ Governor.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

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