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Prior +1.8%HICP +2.1% vs +2.1% y/y prelimPrior +2.0%Core CPI 2.5% y/yNo changes to the preliminary estimates here. The reaction to the data was muted as expected given no surprises and no influence on ECB’s policy outlook.The agency notes: “The rise in overall consumer prices intensified at the start of the year. In particular, the price of food increased more in January than in the previous months. In the months from September to December 2025, the price increase observed for food was still lower than overall inflation. Furthermore, the increase in service prices continues to drive up inflation in January.”The market doesn’t expect the ECB to adjust interest rates this year although we’ve been seeing a slow dovish repricing since the start of the year due to some easing in inflation and policymakers’ attention to the exchange rate after the euro broke above the 1.20 handle versus the US dollar.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.
💡 DMK Insight
Inflation data showed a slight uptick, but traders shouldn’t panic just yet. With HICP at +1.8% and Core CPI steady at +2.5% y/y, the ECB’s policy remains unchanged, which means no immediate shifts in interest rates. This stability is crucial for traders, especially those in forex and bond markets, as it indicates that the ECB isn’t under pressure to tighten monetary policy. However, keep an eye on how this data influences the euro against major pairs, particularly if we see any unexpected shifts in economic sentiment. The muted market reaction suggests that traders are already pricing in these figures, but a sudden change in inflation expectations could lead to volatility. Watch for any comments from ECB officials in the coming days that might hint at future policy adjustments. The flip side here is that if inflation continues to rise unexpectedly, it could force the ECB’s hand sooner than anticipated. So, monitor the upcoming economic indicators closely, especially any shifts in consumer spending or wage growth, as these could be early signals of inflationary pressures building up. For now, keep your positions flexible and be ready to react to any surprises.
📮 Takeaway
Watch for ECB comments and upcoming economic indicators; any unexpected inflation shifts could trigger market volatility.
