What is priced in for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand policy meeting?

💡 DMK Insight

The RBNZ’s decision to likely hold the OCR at 2.25% is crucial for traders focused on the NZD/USD pair. With a 99% probability priced in, any deviation from this expectation could trigger significant volatility. If the RBNZ surprises the market with a rate hike or cut, expect a sharp reaction in the NZD, potentially breaking key technical levels. Traders should monitor the NZD/USD closely, especially around the announcement time, as it could lead to a breakout or breakdown depending on the sentiment shift. Additionally, this decision could have ripple effects on other currencies, particularly AUD/NZD, as traders reassess their positions based on relative interest rate expectations. Keep an eye on the 0.6000 level for NZD/USD, as a break above or below could signal the next move. Here’s the thing: while the market’s leaning heavily towards no change, the real story is how traders react to any hints of future policy shifts. Watch for any forward guidance from the RBNZ that could influence market sentiment beyond this meeting.