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NZD: RBNZ guidance to support richer NZD – BNY

BNY’s EMEA Macro Strategist Geoff Yu expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to hold rates at 2.25% (February 18) but acknowledges markets are increasingly pricing in tightening as inflation stays stubborn.

🔗 Source

💡 DMK Insight

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s potential rate hold at 2.25% is significant for traders navigating inflationary pressures. With inflation remaining stubborn, the market’s anticipation of future tightening could lead to volatility in the NZD and related currency pairs. Traders should keep an eye on economic indicators leading up to February 18, especially any shifts in inflation data or employment figures that could sway the RBNZ’s stance. If inflation continues to rise, we might see a more aggressive approach from the RBNZ, which could strengthen the NZD against its peers. Conversely, if inflation shows signs of easing, the NZD could weaken as market expectations adjust. Watch for key resistance levels around recent highs in NZD/USD, as a break could signal a bullish trend if the RBNZ takes a hawkish turn. The real story here is how traders react to these inflation signals in the lead-up to the RBNZ meeting.

📮 Takeaway

Monitor inflation data closely ahead of the RBNZ’s February 18 meeting, as it could dictate NZD volatility and trading strategies.

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