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Prior was 56.4Conditions 58.3 vs 54.9 expectedExpectations 56.6 vs 56.7 expectedInflation numbers1-year inflation 3.5% vs 4.0% prior5 year inflation 3.4% vs 3.3% priorI don’t know if this survey tells us anything about consumer spending anymore. It’s got a long tradition but everything’s been so deeply politicized that people just want an outlet to gripe.In November 2025, consumer sentiment registered 51.0, the second-lowest reading on record, as consumers grappled with high prices and weakening labor conditions. December saw a modest improvement to 52.9, marking the first increase in five months, though sentiment remained nearly 30 percent below year-ago levels. January 2026 brought further gains as the final reading reached 56.4, up from a preliminary 54.0 and the highest level since August 2025. The improvement was broad-based across income levels, education, age groups, and political affiliations. Year-ahead inflation expectations fell to 4.0 percent in January, the lowest since January 2025, while long-run expectations edged up to 3.3%.The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey, conducted monthly by the university’s Surveys of Consumers program, measures American households’ attitudes toward the economy, personal finances, business conditions, and purchasing decisions. Published twice monthly—a preliminary reading released mid-month and a final reading at month’s end—the survey polls a minimum of 500 consumers nationwide via telephone and web interviews. The headline Consumer Sentiment Index consists of two subindexes: the Current Economic Conditions Index, which reflects views of present financial situations, and the Index of Consumer Expectations, which gauges future outlook. The survey also tracks inflation expectations for both the year ahead and the longer-term five-year horizon, providing insights into consumer price expectations that the Federal Reserve monitors closely when setting monetary policy.
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.
💡 DMK Insight
Inflation expectations are shifting, and here’s why that matters for traders right now: The latest inflation numbers show a 1-year inflation rate at 3.5%, down from 4.0%, which could influence the Fed’s next moves. With expectations for inflation slightly lower than previous forecasts, traders might want to reassess their positions in interest rate-sensitive assets. If inflation continues to decline, we could see a more dovish stance from the Fed, impacting everything from equities to forex pairs. The market’s reaction to these figures will be crucial, especially as we approach key economic indicators in the coming weeks. But here’s the flip side: the politicization of consumer sentiment surveys raises questions about their reliability. If traders start doubting the validity of these reports, it could lead to increased volatility as market participants react to perceived uncertainty. Watch for any significant shifts in consumer spending patterns, as they could provide clearer signals about the economy’s health. Keep an eye on the 58.3 level for inflation expectations; a break above could signal renewed pressure on the Fed to act.
📮 Takeaway
Monitor the 58.3 level for inflation expectations; a breakout could signal a shift in Fed policy and impact interest-sensitive assets.
