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Two weeks ago the world was abuzz with precious metals bullish talk. Gold had rallied that week to $4982 from $4629 in the third straight week of gains. It was a near-euphoric time for the gold bulls, nearly hitting the once-dreamlike level of $5000.If you were to ask the bulls then, if they would be happy if in two weeks time gold would close essentially flat, they’d say yes. A consolidation after a long uptrend is good for the market and stability close to $5000 is a win for the bulls.Skip ahead two weeks and it doesn’t feel that way. Precious metals already feels like yesterday’s news, in large part because of the volatility. Gold shot to $5600 last week before reversing lower. This week it fell as low as $4400 before bouncing to $4951. That’s a nice bounce but it’s been caught up in so much volatility that gold suddenly feels much more dangerous that it did before.So what next?This week gold failed to hold above $5000 and that’s something of a disappointment, though certainly not in the context of bitcoin or silver. It’s still been relatively stable. But you can’t ignore the volatility. It’s not great and the sense of unease is real. In the week ahead, the best thing that could happen to go would be a drop in volatility, even if it means slightly lower prices. The huge +$150 daily swings are not conductive to accumulation and they are a turnoff for investors. Miners may also hedge more aggressively as everyone gets the sense that ‘something changed’ in markets.I think that’s a real factor and a real concern. Unfortunately, I don’t think the volatility will go away that quickly. It tends to cluster and persist for a time, before slowly settling. Eyes will be on Iran and Ukraine in the coming days for any impetus there and Wednesday we get the latest non-farm payrolls report. Somewhat encouragingly for the bulls, the US dollar slipped back lower today and that could be a catalyst as well.Notably, gold has survived a series of margin hikes and that does speak to some underlying buying. Ultimately, if it can consolidate in the $4500-$5000 range for a few weeks (or months), that’s a good sign.On the negatives, the period of positive gold seasonals is now at (or near) an end.
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.
💡 DMK Insight
Gold’s recent rally to $4982 has traders on edge, but here’s why caution is key right now: After three weeks of gains, the market sentiment has shifted from euphoria to uncertainty. The psychological barrier of $5000 looms large, and while bulls are hopeful, the price action suggests potential profit-taking could be on the horizon. Traders should keep an eye on volume trends and resistance levels around $5000. If gold fails to break through this level decisively, we might see a pullback that could affect correlated assets like silver and mining stocks. Additionally, macroeconomic factors such as inflation data and interest rate decisions will play a crucial role in shaping gold’s trajectory in the coming weeks. Watch for any signs of weakness in the daily charts, as a close below $4900 could trigger a wave of selling pressure. The flip side? If gold breaks above $5000 with strong volume, it could ignite a new bullish trend, attracting both retail and institutional buyers. But until then, it’s wise to remain cautious and consider hedging strategies to protect against volatility.
📮 Takeaway
Watch for gold’s reaction at the $5000 level; a failure to break could signal a pullback, while a strong breakout may lead to new highs.
