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Fed's Daly says she leans towards more cuts in 2026

Leans towards more cuts in 2026, hard to say if it’s one or twoSays she keeps an open mind on ratesTo cut, you’d need to be more confident on inflation or see labor market as more challenged that currentlyWorkers feel they are on the knife’s edgeIf job market goes from ‘no firing’ to ‘some firing’ Fed may need to cutShe sees more vulnerability on jobs market than inflationWould be comfortable holding for longer if inflation picks upThe market is pricing in an 18% chance of a cut in March and one cut is fully priced in (barely) for the June 17 meeting, which will be Chaired by Kevin Warsh if he’s confirmed in time. For the year, pricing is up to 57 bps from 48 bps at the start of the week in light of soft employment data. Next week we get non-farm payrolls.
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

🔗 Source

💡 DMK Insight

The Fed’s hints at potential rate cuts in 2026 are stirring the pot for traders, especially those in the forex and bond markets. If inflation stabilizes or the labor market weakens, we could see a shift in monetary policy that impacts everything from USD strength to bond yields. Right now, traders should keep an eye on inflation metrics and employment reports, as these will be pivotal in determining if the Fed follows through on its rate cut plans. But here’s the kicker: while the prospect of lower rates might seem bullish for equities, it could also signal underlying economic weakness. If workers feel they’re on a ‘knife’s edge’, it suggests a fragile job market that could lead to volatility. Traders should be cautious about jumping into long positions without considering the broader economic context. Watch for key inflation data releases and labor market reports in the coming months, as these will likely dictate market sentiment and trading strategies.

📮 Takeaway

Keep an eye on inflation and labor market reports; they could dictate the Fed’s rate cut timeline and impact USD and bond markets significantly.

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