Bitcoin 
Ethereum 
Tether 
XRP 
BNB 
USDC 
Solana 
TRON 
Lido Staked Ether 
Dogecoin 
Japan’s 30-year bond yields eased ahead of an auction, but fiscal uncertainty linked to Sunday’s snap election continues to cap any sustained rally.Summary:Japan’s 30-year JGB yield edged lower ahead of Thursday’s auctionSuper-long bonds remain sensitive to fiscal election riskSnap election keeps focus on potential tax cuts and stimulusElevated yields may improve auction demand despite uncertaintyMarket calm returns after January’s sharp bond routJapan’s super-long government bonds steadied on Thursday, with 30-year yields easing slightly ahead of a key auction later in the session, even as political uncertainty remains elevated ahead of Sunday’s snap election.The 30-year JGB yield fell 1.5 basis points to around 3.62%, remaining within a relatively narrow trading range seen over the past two weeks. The move comes after sharp volatility in mid-January, when yields surged to record highs following election-related fiscal concerns.That sell-off was triggered after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi called a snap election while pledging to waive Japan’s sales tax on food for two years — a proposal that reignited fears of looser fiscal discipline. At the peak of the rout on January 19–20, the 30-year yield touched an all-time high of 3.88%.Super-long JGBs have been particularly sensitive to perceived fiscal slippage, reflecting investor caution toward expanded stimulus in a country that already carries the highest public debt burden in the developed world. Takaichi, a long-time advocate of policies associated with former prime minister Shinzo Abe’s Abenomics framework, has kept those concerns firmly in play.Polling suggests Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party could secure as many as 300 seats in the 465-member lower house, a result that would give the government a strong mandate but leave bond investors waiting for clarity on fiscal details.Analysts at Mizuho Securities said uncertainty around fiscal policy is likely to persist well beyond the election, limiting the scope for a sharp rally in long-dated bonds in the near term. However, they noted that the significantly higher yield levels compared with the previous 30-year auction earlier this month should help attract buyers.Elsewhere on the curve, moves were modest. The 20-year yield was unchanged, while 10-year, five-year and two-year yields all edged slightly lower, signalling a degree of stabilisation after January’s turbulence. Polls are showing a solid win for Takaichi this weekend. Election February 8.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
💡 DMK Insight
Japan’s 30-year bond yields are easing, but don’t get too comfortable—fiscal uncertainty looms large. With the snap election on Sunday, traders are on edge about potential tax cuts and stimulus measures that could impact yields. The recent dip in yields ahead of Thursday’s auction suggests some short-term relief, but the underlying fiscal risks could quickly reverse this trend. If the election results hint at aggressive fiscal policies, we might see yields spike again, especially in the super-long bond segment. Keep an eye on the auction results; a weak demand could signal a shift in sentiment, pushing yields higher. Here’s the kicker: while many are focused on the immediate yield movements, the broader implications for the forex market could be significant. If yields rise due to fiscal expansion, the yen might weaken against major currencies, affecting forex positions. Watch for the 30-year yield to break above recent highs—if it does, it could trigger a wave of selling in bonds and a flight to safety in equities.
📮 Takeaway
Monitor the 30-year JGB yield closely; a break above recent highs could signal rising yields and impact forex positions significantly.
