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Eurozone December retail sales -0.5% vs -0.2% m/m expected

Prior +0.2%; revised to +0.1%Retail sales +1.3% vs +1.6% y/y expectedPrior +2.3%; revised to +2.4%That’s a slightly more disappointing end to the year for euro area retail sales activity. But overall in 2025, the annual average level of retail trade volume is seen increasing by 2.3% compared with 2024. As for the monthly breakdown in December, it can be seen below:Despite a poor finish to the year, there is some added resilience seen throughout 2025 for euro area retail sales activity. So, that speaks to household expenditure holding up despite worries about inflation especially in the likes of Germany and Spain.In any case, this isn’t a data point that will move the needle on the ECB. At this stage, the central bank remains solely focused on the inflation battle. And while core prices are slowly nudging back towards the 2% level, it likely won’t be enough to warrant a shift from the central bank today and for the first half of this year.
This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

🔗 Source

💡 DMK Insight

Euro area retail sales just missed expectations, and here’s why that matters: The latest figures show retail sales growth at 1.3% year-over-year, falling short of the anticipated 1.6%. This slight downturn could signal a cooling consumer sentiment as we head into 2025, despite forecasts predicting a 2.3% annual increase in retail trade volume. Traders should be cautious; weaker retail performance often translates to lower consumer spending, which can impact broader economic indicators and potentially lead to a slowdown in GDP growth. If you’re trading euro-denominated assets, keep an eye on how this data influences the ECB’s monetary policy stance, especially if inflation remains stubbornly high. On the flip side, if the market overreacts to this data, it could create buying opportunities in undervalued sectors. Watch for key technical levels in related assets, particularly EUR/USD, where a break below recent support could trigger further selling pressure. The immediate focus should be on the upcoming economic reports and how they might adjust market expectations for interest rates.

📮 Takeaway

Monitor EUR/USD closely; a break below key support levels could signal further downside, especially if consumer sentiment continues to weaken.

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