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Credit Agricole notes that a lot of the negatives surrounding the US dollar are now priced into the currency already. And given the circumstances in play, that provides a scope for the greenback to rebound in perhaps the coming three to six months period.The firm argues that despite upgrading their forecast for gold this year, they believe that dollar bulls should not “throw in the towel just yet”. For some context, Credit Agricole was out last week with this note on gold:”We mark to market our XAU forecasts and expect gold to remain above USD5,000/oz in H126. We doubt that the current pace of gains would be sustained, however, and think further that the gold rally could start running out of steam in H226.””In particular: We expect that, like 2025, global geopolitical and US political risks could start to fade while the ‘sell America trade’ could ultimately fail to materialise as the year progresses. In turn, this could help the USD stabilise vs XAU in H226.”Adding that they see gold at $5,100 in Q4 2026 and then $5,500 in Q4 2027.Circling back to the dollar, the firm says that:”The “Sell America” trade has recently grown into a full-blown USD crisis that poses some risks to our above-consensus outlook for the currency. We have upgraded our gold forecasts as a result but believe that it is too early for the USD bulls to throw in the towel just yet. This is because, like in 2025: (1) the “sell America” trade has already gone into reverse; (2) US government shutdown risks need not last; and (3) growing geopolitical risks centred around Iran could boost the safe-haven appeal of the USD.””Our historic analysis further suggests that the USD’s path since the 2024 election has been similar to its evolution after President Donald Trump’s 2016 election win. Using Trump 1.0 as a template would also signal that many negatives are in the USD price and that a rebound could be on the cards in the next three to six months.”
This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.
💡 DMK Insight
Credit Agricole’s take on the US dollar suggests a potential rebound, and here’s why that matters: With many negatives already baked into the dollar’s current valuation, traders might want to position for a reversal. The three to six-month timeframe they mention aligns with key economic indicators like inflation data and Federal Reserve policy shifts, which could catalyze a stronger dollar. If the Fed signals a more hawkish stance or if inflation shows signs of stabilizing, we could see the dollar gain traction against major currencies. But don’t overlook the flip side—if geopolitical tensions or economic data disappoint, the dollar could falter. Traders should keep an eye on the DXY index, particularly the 100 level, as a significant breakout point. A sustained move above this level could confirm a bullish trend. Watch for upcoming economic releases that could sway sentiment, especially any Fed commentary or inflation reports in the next month.
📮 Takeaway
Monitor the DXY index around the 100 level; a breakout could signal a dollar rebound in the next three to six months.
