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Prior was 51.8Manufacturing 51.9 vs 52.20 expectedPrior manufacturing 51.8Composite 52.8 vs 52.7 priorConfidence in the year ahead outlook meanwhile remained
positive but dipped slightly lowerManufacturing price pressures intensified in
January, tariffs citedNew order
growth improved from December’s 20-month lowExport markets were a key source of order book weakness
for both manufacturing and servicesThis numbers are below-consensus but note that both manufacturing and services saw a slight uptick in the month.Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P
Global Market Intelligence:
“The flash PMI brought news of sustained economic
growth at the start of the year, but there are further signs
that the rate of expansion has cooled over the turn of the
new year compared to the hotter pace indicated back in
the fall.
“The survey is signalling annualised GDP growth of
1.5% for both December and January, and a worryingly
subdued rate of new business growth across both
manufacturing and services adds further to signs that
first quarter growth could disappoint.
“Jobs growth is meanwhile already disappointing, with
near stagnant payroll numbers reported again in January,
as businesses worry about taking on more staff in an
environment of uncertainty, weak demand and high costs.
“Increased costs, widely blamed on tariffs, are again cited
as a key driver of higher prices for both goods and services
in January, meaning inflation and affordability remains a
widespread concern among businesses.”There is some real optimism about the US economy at the start of the year but it’s not showing up in the survey data, which is often a leading indicator. Businesses are struggling with tariffs and business uncertainty, there is also a drag from anyone on the wrong side of the K-shaped economy, something we’ve seen from airlines.The consumer side of the economy is also very tough to get a read on with the UMich sentiment index at compared 56.4 to 54.0 in the prelim reading and 52.9 in December. That’s a nice bump but let’s put it into perspective.The inflation index changes might be more meaningful with it at 4.0% compared to 4.2% a month earlier. Longer term inflation expectations ticked up to 3.3% from 3.2%.
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.
💡 DMK Insight
Manufacturing data just came in mixed, and here’s why that matters: the slight dip in confidence could signal caution among traders. The manufacturing index at 51.9, while above the prior 51.8, still fell short of expectations, indicating that growth is slowing. This could lead to volatility in related markets, especially if traders start to question the strength of the economic recovery. New order growth improving from December’s low is a silver lining, but the mention of intensified price pressures and tariffs could weigh on margins, making it crucial for traders to monitor sectors sensitive to these changes. Look for potential ripple effects in commodities and export-driven stocks, as they might react to these signals. Keep an eye on the 52.0 level for the manufacturing index; a break below that could trigger further bearish sentiment. Also, watch how the market reacts to upcoming economic indicators, as they could provide more clarity on the overall trend.
📮 Takeaway
Watch the manufacturing index closely; a drop below 52.0 could signal deeper economic concerns and affect related asset classes.
