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Prior was 39Current single-family home sales 41 vs 42 priorProspective buyers 23 vs 26 priorHome sales expectations over the next six months 49 vs 52 priorIn the past month, US 30-year yields have ticked 5-7 basis points higher but there have been signs of buyers wading in via the latest existing home sales report.The latest survey also revealed that 40% of builders reported
cutting prices in December, marking the second consecutive month the
share has been at 40% or higher since May 2020. It was 41% in November. Meanwhile, the average price reduction was 5% in December, down from the
6% rate in November. The use of sales incentives was 67% in December,
the highest percentage in the post-Covid period.The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) is a monthly economic indicator that gauges builder confidence in the U.S. single-family housing market. Based on a survey of National Association of Home Builders members, it operates on a scale of 0 to 100. A reading above 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as “good” rather than “poor.”The index is a weighted average of three specific components:Current Sales Conditions (59%): Builders rate current sales volume.Future Sales Expectations (14%): Outlook for sales over the next six months.Prospective Buyer Traffic (27%): The volume of potential buyers visiting model homes.Currently, the index is low because builders are caught in a “dual squeeze.” On the demand side, high mortgage rates and prices have hurt affordability, forcing builders to offer costly incentives. On the supply side, they are dealing with rising construction costs, labor shortages, and regulatory hurdles, all of which keep confidence below the neutral 50 mark and near the pandemic lows.
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.
💡 DMK Insight
Home sales are cooling, and here’s why that matters for traders: declining buyer sentiment can impact broader economic indicators. Current single-family home sales dropped to 41 from 42, while prospective buyers fell to 23 from 26. This trend signals a potential slowdown in the housing market, which could ripple through sectors tied to consumer spending and mortgage rates. With US 30-year yields rising 5-7 basis points recently, higher borrowing costs could further deter buyers. Traders should keep an eye on how these housing metrics affect related markets, especially real estate investment trusts (REITs) and financial stocks. The flip side? If yields stabilize or reverse, we might see a rebound in buyer sentiment. Watch for any shifts in the next monthly report, particularly if home sales expectations, currently at 49, begin to trend upward again. This could indicate a market correction or renewed interest from buyers, impacting asset prices across the board.
📮 Takeaway
Monitor home sales expectations and US 30-year yields closely; a rebound could signal renewed buyer interest and impact related markets.
