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Figure Heloc 
Data released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) for the official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs in December 2025. -The screenshot adds in the priors, not mentioned in the text.The screenshot does not show the ‘Composite’ which has come in at 50.7, up from 49.7 in November. -China publishes two main PMI surveys, each capturing different parts of the industrial landscape. The official PMI is compiled by the National Bureau of Statistics and focuses primarily on large, state-owned and government-linked enterprises. Alongside this, the private-sector PMI, produced by S&P Global / RatingDog, places greater emphasis on small and medium-sized enterprises, making it a closely watched gauge of conditions in China’s private economy. The RatingDog PMI is due at 0145 GMT. The distinction matters. While the official PMI tends to reflect conditions among larger firms with better access to credit and policy support, the private-sector survey is often seen as more sensitive to shifts in domestic demand, pricing power and employment conditions. Methodological differences also play a role, with the Caixin/RatingDog survey drawing from a broader and more diverse sample of companies. Despite these contrasts, the two PMIs often move in the same direction, offering complementary signals on the health of China’s manufacturing sector.This release includes the official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs, alongside the private-sector manufacturing PMI.Taken together, today’s PMI readings are likely to reinforce expectations for further policy support in 2026, as Chinese authorities seek to stabilise growth, shore up confidence and arrest the slide in industrial activity heading into the new year.Markets are likely to view the PMI prints as encouraging, but as still reinforcing the narrative of persistent slack in China’s industrial cycle, with limited immediate upside for risk assets. Chinese equities and broader Asia-Pacific markets may struggle to find traction, while base metals could remain capped on concerns around weak end-demand. In FX, the data should keep the yuan biased to the downside at the margin, particularly if the private-sector PMI confirms ongoing stress among smaller firms. From a policy perspective, soft PMIs strengthen expectations for additional targeted stimulus in early 2026, including fiscal support and incremental monetary easing, which may limit downside risk over the medium term. For global markets, weak China data is likely to reinforce disinflationary impulses, supporting bonds and keeping a lid on global yields, while offering modest support to the US dollar against cyclical and commodity-linked currencies.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
💡 DMK Insight
China’s December PMI data shows a rebound, with the Composite PMI rising to 50.7 from 49.7, signaling a potential recovery in economic activity. This uptick is crucial as it suggests that manufacturing and services are gaining momentum, which could influence global market sentiment, especially in commodities and currencies linked to China. Traders should note that a Composite PMI above 50 indicates expansion, which might lead to increased demand for raw materials and could boost commodity prices. However, it’s worth considering that while this data is positive, it might not reflect the entire economic picture. Other factors like ongoing geopolitical tensions and domestic policy shifts could dampen this optimism. Additionally, if the market overreacts to this news, we could see a pullback in related assets, particularly if the anticipated growth doesn’t materialize. Keep an eye on the 50.0 level as a psychological barrier for the Composite PMI, and monitor how this data influences the Chinese yuan and commodities like copper and oil in the coming weeks.
📮 Takeaway
Watch for how the Composite PMI’s rise impacts commodity prices and the yuan; a sustained move above 50 could signal stronger demand.
