Prior 53.6Manufacturing PMI 49.2 vs 49.9 expectedPrior 49.6Composite PMI 51.9 vs 52.7 expectedPrior 52.8After the downcast from the German numbers, this was well expected. Both the services and manufacturing prints are softer than estimated, pushing down overall activity in the euro area for December. That said, it still marks another expansion in activity at least to wrap up the year. That won’t change much for the ECB outlook as such. EUR/USD continues to trade near unchanged on the day at 1.1752 with large option expiries seen at 1.1750. HCOB notes that:โEconomic growth slowed at the end of the year due to a slight contraction in the manufacturing sector and weaker
momentum in the service sector. The weaker performance is primarily attributable to German industry, where the downturn
intensified. In France, on the other hand, there are signs of a cautious recovery in industry, although a single monthly figure
should not be overrated. However, the service sector, which had expanded last month, is stagnating there, while Germany’s
service companies saw another solid rise in activity. All in all, the runway into the new year seems pretty unstable.
โDespite a softening of growth, the service sector continues to look relatively robust. Companies have no reason to complain
about new business and are therefore hiring additional staff. Looking ahead, however, companies have become somewhat
more cautious, which is likely due in part to the decline in order backlogs. We expect the service sector to continue to play a
stabilising role for the economy as a whole in the coming year. However, a real upturn will only succeed if the manufacturing
sector regains its footing.
โCost inflation in the service sector reached its highest rate in nine months in December. The European Central Bank, which
is meeting on December 18 and is monitoring service inflation particularly closely, is likely to see its publicly stated policy of
leaving interest rates unchanged confirmed. It is clear that price pressure, driven in part by wage increases, is still
noticeable.โ
This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.
๐ก DMK Insight
The latest PMI data shows a concerning trend in eurozone activity, and here’s why that matters: With the Manufacturing PMI at 49.2, below the expected 49.9, and the Composite PMI at 51.9 versus a forecast of 52.7, traders should brace for potential volatility. These figures indicate a contraction in manufacturing and a slowdown in services, which could signal broader economic weakness. This is particularly relevant as we head into a new trading year, where expectations for growth are already tempered. If this trend continues, it could lead to a bearish sentiment in the euro, impacting related assets like EUR/USD and European equities. Look for key support levels in the euro around 1.05 against the dollar; a breach could trigger further selling. Additionally, keep an eye on the European Central Bank’s responseโif they hint at a more dovish stance in upcoming meetings, it could exacerbate the euro’s decline. The real story is how these numbers might affect market psychology; traders should monitor sentiment indicators closely as we approach year-end.
๐ฎ Takeaway
Watch for EUR/USD support at 1.05; a break could signal deeper euro weakness amid declining PMI data.





