Traders have quickly re-priced the macro backdrop as the probability of a 25 bps cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting has surged from 39% to almost 87% in a matter of days.
💡 DMK Insight
The rapid shift in FOMC rate cut expectations is a game changer for traders right now. With the probability of a 25 bps cut jumping from 39% to nearly 87%, market sentiment is clearly leaning towards easing monetary policy. This could lead to a significant impact on both equities and forex markets, particularly for USD pairs. Traders should be on the lookout for how this sentiment plays out in the coming days, especially as we approach the FOMC meeting. If the Fed does cut rates, expect a potential rally in risk assets, while the dollar might weaken against major currencies. Keep an eye on key levels in the S&P 500 and major forex pairs like EUR/USD and GBP/USD, as they could react sharply to any announcements. However, there’s a flip side: if the Fed surprises the market by holding rates steady, we could see a swift reversal in sentiment, leading to volatility. So, watch for any last-minute economic data releases that could sway the Fed’s decision. The next few days are crucial, and positioning ahead of the meeting could yield significant opportunities.
📮 Takeaway
Watch for the FOMC meeting outcome; a rate cut could boost risk assets while weakening the dollar, so position accordingly.





