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The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meet this week, Wednesday 26 November. Their decision is due at 2pm local time:0100 GMT2000 US Eastern time on Tuesday, November 25A press conference will follow an hour later. A 25bp rate cut is widely expectedto 2.25% (currently 2.5%)NAB and BNZ expect the decision will weigh on AUD/NZD as the cut from the RBNZ could well be its last. BNZ sees some scope for the yield gap between Australia and New Zealand to narrow going forward. should be supportive for NZD vs. AUDwon’t be a sharp rise for the kiwi as the yield gap is still not in its favourNAB expect the RBNZ rate cut to be the final in the cycle.NAB and BNZ analysis via Bloomberg.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
💡 DMK Insight
A potential 25bp rate cut from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand could shake up the NZD markets significantly. With the current rate at 2.5%, a reduction to 2.25% is expected, which could lead to increased volatility in the NZD/USD pair. Traders should keep an eye on how the market reacts post-announcement, especially during the press conference. If the cut is accompanied by dovish commentary, we might see the NZD weaken further, potentially testing support levels around 0.6000. Conversely, if the RBNZ surprises with a more hawkish stance or hints at future tightening, we could see a short squeeze in the NZD. This decision is crucial not just for the NZD but could also ripple through the AUD and other commodity currencies, given New Zealand’s economic ties. Watch for trading volume spikes around the announcement time, as market participants adjust their positions based on the RBNZ’s forward guidance.
📮 Takeaway
Monitor the NZD/USD closely around the RBNZ’s rate decision on November 26; a cut could push it towards 0.6000 support.
