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Deutsche Bank says gold’s role as a portfolio diversifier remains intact, even as its traditional negative correlation with risk assets has become less reliable in recent years. In a new note, the bank argues that official-sector buying, not financial-market positioning, continues to be the dominant force supporting bullion prices.Analysts expect central banks and reserve managers to keep stepping in on bouts of weakness, reinforcing a structural floor under the market. By contrast, ETF investors appear less inclined to buy dips while realised volatility stays elevated, limiting the responsiveness of retail and institutional flow-driven demand.Deutsche Bank maintains that sustained official-sector accumulation is the key driver behind gold’s persistent outperformance relative to fair-value models. With central-bank buying expected to remain strong, the bank keeps a strategically bullish stance and sees upside risks to its 2026 average price forecast of US$4,000/oz.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
💡 DMK Insight
Gold’s status as a safe haven is still relevant, but here’s the catch: it’s not behaving like it used to. Deutsche Bank’s latest note highlights that while gold has historically moved inversely to risk assets, that correlation is weakening. This shift is crucial for traders who rely on gold as a hedge against market volatility. The emphasis on official-sector buying suggests that institutional demand is propping up prices, which could lead to a more stable gold market in the short term. However, if financial-market positioning becomes more dominant, we could see increased volatility in gold prices. Traders should keep an eye on key levels—if gold can hold above its recent support, it might signal a buying opportunity. Watch for any shifts in central bank policies or economic indicators that could impact risk sentiment. The real story is whether gold can reclaim its traditional role as a hedge or if it will continue to be influenced by institutional buying patterns.
📮 Takeaway
Monitor gold’s support levels closely; if it holds, it could present a buying opportunity amid shifting market dynamics.
