TRY: Inflation forecasts revised up despite assurances – Commerzbank

💡 DMK Insight

Turkey’s central bank just raised its inflation forecast, and here’s why that matters: An upward revision to 31%-33% for 2025 inflation signals persistent economic challenges. For traders, this could mean heightened volatility in the Turkish lira (TRY) as market participants react to the implications of sustained inflation. If inflation expectations remain elevated, the CBT might be pressured to adjust interest rates, which could further impact currency pairs involving the TRY. Keep an eye on the USD/TRY and EUR/TRY pairs, as they could see increased trading activity. But here’s the flip side: if the market starts to price in aggressive rate hikes, it could lead to a short-term strengthening of the lira as investors seek higher yields. Watch for key technical levels around recent highs and lows in these pairs, as they could provide entry or exit points. The next few weeks will be crucial as traders digest this news and its potential ripple effects across emerging markets.