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Canada October employment change +66.6K vs -2.5K expectedUMich consumer sentiment 50.3 vs 53.2 prelimNY Fed survey finds less worry about inflation and more about jobsTrump: Talking with Hungary about meetings with Russian Pres. PutinBOE’s Pill says not to overinterpret removal of the word ‘careful’Uranium-enriching company jumps after Trump’s sons investThune: I’m willing to give Democrats all they want after reopeningFed’s Jefferson says that the Fed makes decisions based on data, outlookFed’s Jefferson says that difference in opinion among policymakers is a healthy thingMarkets:Gold up $26 to $4003WTI crude oil up 35-cents to $59.78US 10-year yields flat at 4.09%S&P 500 up 0.1%Bitcoin up 2.4% to $103,557CAD leads, JPY lagsA second consecutive non-farm payrolls report was cancelled on Friday as the government shutdown continues but there is some hope for progress on the weekend as lawmakers meeting in Washington and float some proposals. There is still plenty of digging in and bluster but at least there seems to be movement with food stamps and some flights being cancelled.The mood early in the day was poor and stock markets sold off hard, with the bottom coming at noon ET as Europe went home. Tech led the slump with the Nasdaq falling as much as 2%. From there, the dip buyers started to weigh in but it wasn’t until late in the day that strong buying kicked in and brought the S&P 500 into slight positive territory and left the Nasdaq with just at 0.2% loss. It was still a tough week for the NQ, down 3% but not nearly as bad as it as a few hours ago.In FX, the US dollar hit the lows of the day after a soft UMich survey and some dovish inflation numbers in the NY Fed survey. That saw December cut odds tick up and lifted the euro as high as 1.1591.The big winner on the day was the loonie on a second consecutive very strong jobs report. The kneejerk took USD/CAD down to 1.4060 from 1.4110 and then the turn in risk appetite dragged the pair down to 1.4030.Gold briefly jumped on what almost looked like a fat finger as it climbed $35 quickly. It promptly gave it all back though and is winding down the week right at the $4000 level, which is right where it started.
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.
đź’ˇ DMK Insight
Canada’s job growth blew past expectations, and here’s why it matters: a strong labor market could shift the Bank of Canada’s stance on interest rates. With employment rising by 66.6K, significantly above the -2.5K forecast, traders should keep an eye on CAD pairs, especially USD/CAD, as this could lead to a bullish sentiment for the loonie. If the Bank of Canada perceives this as a sign of economic strength, we might see a tightening of monetary policy sooner than anticipated, which could influence forex markets. Additionally, the slight dip in consumer sentiment suggests that while jobs are plentiful, consumer confidence isn’t keeping pace, which could temper any aggressive rate hikes. Watch for USD/CAD to test key support levels around 1.35, as a break below could signal further CAD strength. On the flip side, if inflation concerns resurface, it could lead to volatility across markets, particularly in commodities like gold and oil, which are sensitive to interest rate changes. Keep an eye on the upcoming inflation data releases for potential market reactions.
đź“® Takeaway
Watch USD/CAD around the 1.35 level; a break below could indicate CAD strength as the market reacts to Canada’s strong job growth.
