Kalshi, Polymarket traders bet Supreme Court will curb Trump’s tariff powers

💡 DMK Insight

Traders are losing faith in Trump’s tariff authority, and here’s why that matters: The prediction markets on Kalshi and Polymarket indicate a shift in sentiment, suggesting that traders are anticipating constraints on executive power regarding tariffs. This could have significant implications for sectors heavily reliant on trade policies, such as agriculture and manufacturing. If traders believe tariffs will be limited, we might see a rebound in stocks tied to these industries, as uncertainty diminishes. Conversely, if these predictions materialize, it could lead to volatility in commodities like soybeans or steel, which have been sensitive to tariff changes. But don’t overlook the flip side: if confidence in executive authority rebounds, we could see a sharp reversal in market sentiment, leading to increased volatility. Traders should keep an eye on key economic indicators and political developments that could influence this narrative. Watch for any announcements or legislative actions that could signal a change in tariff policy, as these will be crucial in shaping market reactions in the coming weeks.