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We discussed holding and outlook for policy, being cautiousThere are mixed signals on the tightness of financial conditionsWe still got a little bit of tightness that will take a little bit of heat out of the economy to bring inflation back downIt’s possible that there’s no more rate cuts but also possible that there will be some moreBut as said before, we didn’t go up as high (on rates) so we don’t have to come down as farA rate hike was not discussedWe have judged that things are restrictive but the closer we get to neutral, the less we knowThe board is definitely targeting 2.5% mark for inflation, “just below 3%” is not good enoughIt’s an open question about whether there are many more rate cuts to comeWe do not give forward guidanceThere is still much uncertainty on inflationWe are watching things very carefullyWe think we are close to neutral and will be going meeting by meeting to see if whether outlook is still reasonableThe board does not have a bias on monetary policyHer remarks certainly don’t sound like they’re in a rush to be cutting again next. Barring any major surprises in the data, we shouldn’t see much of a change to the RBA outlook going into the turn of the year. The next key quarterly inflation report will only fall on 28 January 2026, so don’t expect the RBA to feel compelled to cut in December. As things stand, markets are pricing in ~92% odds of no change for that.
This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.
đź’ˇ DMK Insight
Mixed signals on financial conditions are raising eyebrows, and here’s why that matters: Traders should be paying attention to the potential implications of tight financial conditions on market liquidity and economic growth. The current environment suggests that while inflation is still a concern, the possibility of further rate cuts may be off the table. This could lead to a more cautious approach from investors, particularly in equities and risk assets. If the economy feels the pinch from tighter conditions, we might see a shift in sentiment that could impact asset classes like crypto and forex, especially if traders start to hedge against potential downturns. On the flip side, if inflation shows signs of cooling, it could create a window for opportunistic buying in undervalued sectors. Keep an eye on key economic indicators like CPI and PPI in the coming weeks, as these will provide clearer signals on inflation trends. Watch for any significant moves in the dollar index, as a stronger dollar could put pressure on commodities and emerging markets. The next few weeks will be crucial for setting up trading strategies based on these evolving conditions.
đź“® Takeaway
Monitor key economic indicators like CPI and PPI closely; they could dictate market sentiment and trading strategies in the coming weeks.
