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Logan is backing up Schmid.The KC Fed President Schmid loses his vote next year but he’s replaced by Logan, who is equally hawkish. She says she have voted to leave rates unchanged this week and would prefer to leave them unchanged in December.The market is still pricing in a 68% chance of a December rate cut but it’s going to be a fight.More from Logan:Labor market risks are to the downside but the labor market is roughly balanced and cooling slowlyFed could address labor quickly if neededInflation too highly and likely to exceed 2% ‘for too much longer’Alternative data provides visibilityBreakeven payroll growth has likely fallen to 30k per month
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.
💡 DMK Insight
The Fed’s hawkish stance is solidified with Logan’s support for Schmid, and here’s why that matters: With the market pricing in a 68% chance of a rate hike in December, traders need to pay close attention to upcoming economic data. Logan’s preference to keep rates unchanged signals a cautious approach, which could lead to volatility in both the forex and equity markets. If inflation data comes in stronger than expected, we might see a shift in sentiment, pushing that probability higher. This could impact the USD significantly, especially against major pairs like EUR/USD and GBP/USD. Watch for key levels around 1.05 for EUR/USD and 1.25 for GBP/USD; breaks below these could indicate further dollar strength. But don’t overlook the flip side: if economic indicators show weakness, the Fed might reconsider its hawkish tone, leading to a potential reversal in market expectations. Keep an eye on the next CPI report and the Fed’s commentary for clues on future rate decisions. The immediate focus should be on how traders react to these developments in the coming weeks.
📮 Takeaway
Monitor the December rate hike probability closely; key levels to watch are 1.05 for EUR/USD and 1.25 for GBP/USD as potential breakout points.
