Sat: Chinese TradeMon: Chinese Inflation (Apr), Norwegian Inflation (Apr)Tue: BoJ SOO (Apr), IEA STEO (May), EU Informal Meeting of Energy Ministers (May 12-13), Japanese Household Spending (Mar), German HICP Final (Apr), Italian Industrial Production (Mar), German ZEW (May), US Inflation (Apr)Wed: BoC Minutes (Apr), EIA OMR (May), OPEC MOMR (May), Riksbank Minutes (May), French Unemployment Rate (Q1), Swedish Inflation Final (Apr), French Inflation Final (Apr), EZ Employment Change (Q1), EZ Industrial Production (Mar), EZ GDP 2nd Estimate (Q1), US PPI (Apr)Thu: Holiday: Europe’s Ascension Day, UK GDP (Mar/Q1), Industrial Production (Mar), Indian WPI (Apr), Spanish HICP Final (Apr), Chinese M2 Money Supply (Apr), US Retail Sales (Apr), US Export/Import Prices (Apr), US Jobless Claims (May 9), South Korean Export/Import Prices (Apr)Fri: Japanese PPI (Apr), German Wholesale Prices (Apr), Norwegian GDP (Q1), Italian HICP Final (Apr), Canadian Wholesale Sales (Mar), US Industrial Production (Apr)Week AheadChinese Trade Data (Sat):China will release April trade data on Saturday, with the surplus expected to widen to about CNY 570bln from CNY 354.75bln and to about USD 82.4bln from USD 51.13bln. ING expects exports to rise about 6.5% Y/Y and imports to jump about 20.4%, reflecting strong domestic restocking and higher commodity and energy costs. The key focus will be whether elevated energy prices are inflating import values and compressing underlying trade surplus dynamics.Chinese Inflation (Mon):China’s April CPI and PPI data are expected to show easing headline inflation, with CPI forecast at about 0.8-1.0% Y/Y versus 1.0% previously as post-Lunar New Year demand fades. Core CPI is expected to remain subdued at about 1.1-1.2%, underscoring weak domestic demand. In contrast, PPI is expected to strengthen further into positive territory at about 1.5-1.9% Y/Y on rising energy and commodity costs, extending the recent rebound from deflation.BoJ SOO (Tue):The BoJ Summary of Opinions will be key to confirming how deep the hawkish shift really is after the 6–3 split. Focus is on whether dissent was forceful and if support for a hike is broadening beyond the three hawks, especially given the upgraded inflation outlook and persistent JPY weakness. Markets will also watch for any divergence from Ueda’s cautious presser—i.e. signs the board is more urgent than the messaging.US CPI (Tue), PPI (Wed):CPI is expected to rise by 0.6% M/M in April (prev. 0.9%), while the core rate is seen rising 0.4% M/M (prev. 0.2%). PPI is expected to rise by 0.4% M/M (cooling from the prev. 0.5%). The Cleveland Fed’s inflation nowcast gauge is tracking April CPI at 0.45% M/M, versus 0.42% M/M in March, and the core rate at 0.21%, unchanged from March. Annual rates are tracking at 3.56% Y/Y in April and the core rate at 2.56% Y/Y (the BLS reported annual core inflation of 2.6% in March, for reference). The data follows a hot March CPI report, which showed a pickup in consumer prices, with the annual rate rising to its highest since May 2024 at 3.3% Y/Y. The rise was driven by energy prices, which increased 10.9% M/M in March, led by a 21.2% jump in gasoline. Traders will continue to focus on whether the war-driven energy shock is feeding into inflation and consumer demand. Fed officials are now firmly focused on inflation amid a stable labour market. At the April FOMC meeting, three dissenters (Hammack, Kashkari and Logan) voted against including any easing bias in the statement, arguing that inflation risks had risen enough for the Fed to keep all options open, including holding rates for longer or even hiking, rather than signalling an easing bias. Some analysts suggested this might be a message to incoming Chair Kevin Warsh, who has previously endorsed lower rates and tighter balance sheet policy. Another key shift in the April statement was on inflation, with the line that inflation “remains somewhat elevated” replaced with “elevated”, and the Fed attributing this to the recent surge in global energy prices, a tweak judged to be a hawkish tilt. Elsewhere, the April data will include one-off rent and OER CPI index adjustments after last Autumn’s government shutdown shortfall; Barclays says this would likely give core inflation a one-off boost of around 10bps.BoC Minutes (Wed):The BoC left rates on hold at 2.25%, the lower end of its estimated neutral range, as expected. The bank reiterated that it is looking through the war’s immediate impact on inflation, but will not allow higher energy prices to become persistent inflation. On trade, the BoC said it may need to cut the policy rate further to support growth if the US imposes significant new trade restrictions on Canada. Conversely, Macklem said a series of hikes may be needed if higher energy prices after the conflict prove long-lasting. The minutes will be watched for how committee members view the two-sided risks, how they plan to navigate the uncertainty and whether any members favour action in either direction, or whether there is broad support for the wait-and-see approach.US Retail Sales (Thu):The previous retail sales report for March showed a 1.7% M/M rise, driven by gasoline, while core sales printed at 1.9% M/M. The Chicago Fed’s CARTS advance retail trade update suggests ex-autos retail sales will rise 1.1% M/M in April (vs prior 0.6%), and 0.3% M/M when adjusted for inflation. Analysts say this could point to consumer resilience in the face of the energy shock, which is expected to weigh on disposable income ahead. Note, the CARTS data will be updated a day before the April retail sales release. Continuum Economics expects headline retail sales to rise 0.7% M/M, with ex-autos up 0.9% M/M and ex-autos/gas up 0.5%. It notes gasoline prices increased further in April, but at an easier pace than in March, while auto sales appear to have seen a modest recent decline, though they still appear healthy. “Higher gasoline prices pose risk to real disposable incomes, which has underperformed consumer spending in the last four quarters, though only marginally in Q1,” Continuum writes, adding that “tax cuts and higher tax refunds are providing some support to consumers.”Trump-Xi Meeting (Thu-Fri):US President Trump will fly