The risk-on wave across broader markets is helping to see a strong bounce in precious metals today. That as hope springs eternal after the US and Iran agrees to a two-week ceasefire in trying to work out a more lasting peace in the region.Typically, fading geopolitical tensions tend to be a negative for the likes of gold and silver. However, this whole episode has been a bit of a reverse. As explained before, gold and silver positioning consisted largely of leveraged trades before the US-Iran conflict started. It was the risky of all risky bets.So the negative drag from the conflict led to leveraged selling as both equities and bonds were heavily liquidated. Think from the perspective of big funds needing to meet margin calls, while trying to ride out the storm until it passes.Hence, the rebound here ties to the fact that market sentiment is picking up and the positive news also means that perhaps major central banks may not need be overly aggressive in pivoting to interest rate hikes. That is also one helpful factor benefiting precious metals in the rebound.The technical chart is getting quite interesting as well for silver at the moment. The precious metal is seeing a solid bounce today and is now creeping above its 100-day moving average (red line). The key level is seen at $76.11 currently. So, hold above that and buyers will be able to establish a platform in chasing a renewed upside leg. But keep below that, and sellers will still have a spot to lean on in trying to keep the pressure up.So, that’s the key line in the sand to watch as market sentiment also looks to turn around. If the positive mood keeps up, the push above the key technical line above will be a good tailwind for silver prices to jump further in coming up for air. So, just watch out for that.But for the time being, it all hinges on US-Iran developments and further headline risks. And as mentioned earlier here, this ceasefire interpretation might not be that straightforward. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The recent ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran is fueling a risk-on sentiment, boosting precious metals prices. Traders should note that this bounce in gold and silver often signals a shift in market dynamics, especially as geopolitical tensions ease. Historically, such developments can lead to a short-term rally in safe-haven assets as investors reassess risk. However, it’s crucial to watch for any potential reversals; if tensions flare up again, we could see a quick sell-off. Keep an eye on key resistance levels in gold around recent highs, as a break above could trigger further bullish momentum. On the flip side, if the ceasefire fails, expect a swift reaction in both precious metals and broader markets, potentially leading to increased volatility. For now, monitor the daily charts for gold and silver closely, as any significant moves could set the tone for the coming weeks. 📮 Takeaway Watch gold’s resistance levels closely; a break above recent highs could signal further upside, while renewed tensions could trigger volatility.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWOil prices dived today after Trump announced on Truth Social a two-sided ceasefire agreement for two weeks while the US and Iran negotiate a lasting peace deal. The ceasefire included the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz as condition. The discussions will begin on Friday in Islamabad and may be extended if both parties agree. There’s still a risk that the war could restart any time as the US and Iran haven’t officially ended the hostilities. Nonetheless, the bias has now turned bearish for crude oil given Iran’s acceptance of the ceasefire despite being against it for a long time. This will likely keep expectations positive for the negotiations.It goes without saying that if the negotiations fail and the conflict resumes, oil prices will quickly rise back to pre-ceasefire levels and might even extend into new highs. CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that crude oil plummeted into the 93.00 support zone before pulling back a bit. That’s where the buyers stepped back in with a defined risk below the support to position for a rally into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break to increase the bearish bets into new lows.CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see the price rejected several times the upper bound of the channel and eventually dropped quickly to the bottom trendline following the ceasefire announcement. Again, we can expect the buyers to step in around the support and the lower bound of the channel to position for a rally back into the top trendline, while the sellers will look for a break lower to extend the drop into new lows.CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we can see the price is trading at the lower bound of the average daily range for today. In such instances, we can generally see some consolidation or a pullback before the next move.UPCOMING CATALYSTSTomorrow we get the US PCE price index and the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US CPI report and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey. As a reminder, we have also the US-Iran negotiations in Islamabad on Friday. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source

Situation in the Middle East is still severely disrupting shipping and supply chainsHopefully the Strait of Hormuz will reopenAbout 1,000 ships are still stuck in the region, six of which are from Hapag-LlyodNone of our ships have passed through the Strait of HormuzThe extra costs per week due to the crisis are around $50 million to $60 millionWe have no choice but to pass on some of that to customersMiddle East situation remains very fluid at the momentEven though news of ceasefire is good, we won’t have a normal network for at least another 6-8 weeksWe will open up for bookings into the Upper Gulf area hopefully fairly soonWhile markets are busy cheering on the ceasefire news, the reality of the situation on the ground is still filled with much uncertainty. And it definitely seems like a lot of commercial vessels will still be guarded in wanting to try their luck in passing through the Strait of Hormuz at this point in time.As mentioned before, any reopening is going to be a slow trickle rather than the floodgates being opened and a rush comes in. We might juts see an uptick from 6-7 vessels per day to maybe something between 10-20 vessels. And if so, that is a far cry from the usual roughly 120-130 vessels that passes through the strait on a daily basis before the conflict began.For now, the ceasefire news is the best markets can hope for in terms of buying time for added relief. However, that seems to be exactly what it is. Just to buy time so that hopefully more positive news can come in eventually.But until then, the risk is always going to be there as the strait remains in de facto or partial closure. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The ongoing situation in the Middle East is creating significant disruptions in global shipping, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, which is critical for oil and trade routes. With around 1,000 ships currently stuck, including those from major shipping lines like Hapag-Lloyd, the ripple effects on supply chains could lead to increased costs and delays across various sectors. Traders should be aware that these disruptions can lead to volatility in oil prices, impacting related assets like energy stocks and commodities. As the situation evolves, keep an eye on the price of crude oil, which could see upward pressure if shipping remains hampered. Additionally, monitor any news regarding the reopening of the Strait, as this will be a key indicator of when normal shipping operations might resume. If the situation escalates, we could see a spike in shipping rates, which would further affect inflation and economic indicators globally. This is a time to reassess positions in energy and shipping stocks, as well as commodities that rely heavily on these trade routes. 📮 Takeaway Watch for updates on the Strait of Hormuz; disruptions could drive oil prices higher and impact related markets significantly.

Prior 44.5The downturn in the UK construction sector continues in March, even if at a less marked pace than in February. Of note, residential work remained by far the weakest-performing category.However, the standout in the report was a rapid acceleration in input cost inflation. That is leading to companies seeing their operating margins come under considerable pressure. Of note, firms reported that the war in the Middle East had pushed up fuel, transportation and raw material prices.S&P Global notes that:”UK construction companies indicated a sustained downturn in business activity during March, led by another steep reduction in residential work. A degree of resilience continued in the commercial and civil engineering segments. There were some reports of a turnaround in infrastructure work, especially in the energy sector. “March data suggested a challenging near-term outlook for construction activity as total new orders decreased at one of the sharpest rates seen over the past six years. Survey respondents commented on fragile consumer confidence and delayed investment decisions in response to the outbreak of war in the Middle East. “Construction firms also signalled a recalibration of their output growth forecasts for the year ahead. The drop in confidence during March wiped out the steady improvements in business optimism reported since the Autumn Budget. Escalating inflationary pressures, gloomy domestic economic prospects and higher borrowing costs were widely cited concerns in March. “International shipping delays meant that supply chain performance deteriorated for the first time since last summer. Moreover, fuel surcharges and rising transport costs contributed to a surge in input cost inflation to its highest for more than three years. The month-onmonth acceleration in cost inflation since February was the largest recorded in nearly three decades of data collection.” This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The UK construction sector’s downturn is easing, but rising input costs are a red flag for traders. While the pace of decline has slowed, the persistent weakness in residential work signals ongoing challenges. For traders, this could mean a cautious approach to related assets, particularly those tied to construction and real estate. Rising input costs may squeeze margins, impacting profitability for construction firms and potentially leading to reduced investment in the sector. This is crucial for traders to monitor, especially if they hold positions in construction-related stocks or ETFs. Keep an eye on the broader economic indicators as well; if inflation continues to rise, it could lead to tighter monetary policy, affecting interest rates and overall market sentiment. Watch for any updates on input costs and how they might influence construction activity in the coming months. Key levels to monitor include the performance of construction stocks and any shifts in the housing market that could signal broader economic implications. 📮 Takeaway Traders should watch for updates on input costs and construction activity, as rising inflation could impact related stocks and overall market sentiment.

Prior -0.1%; revised to 0.0%Euro area retail sales dropped slightly in February but is still seen up 1.7% relative to the same month a year ago. The details show a 0.5% drop in sales for food, drinks, tobacco while retail sales for non-food products were stable on the month. Meanwhile, sales for automotive fuel in specialised stores saw a 0.7% increase in February.The detailed breakdown and monthly comparisons:With the US-Iran conflict set to have an impact on price pressures in March, expect that to also drag down consumption activity. That alongside the relative economic uncertainty will make for more cautious behaviour among households in terms of their spending decisions.So, there will be that to look forward to in the month(s) ahead. And if gas prices continue to keep higher in the weeks ahead, expect that to take a bigger toll on consumer behaviour. That as well as needing to consider ECB interest rate hikes down the road too. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Euro area retail sales are down slightly, but here’s why that matters for traders: The 0.1% drop in February, revised to 0.0%, signals a potential slowdown in consumer spending, which could impact economic growth forecasts. While a year-over-year increase of 1.7% seems positive, the drop in food, drinks, and tobacco sales by 0.5% raises concerns about inflationary pressures affecting consumer behavior. Traders should keep an eye on how this affects the Euro against the USD, especially if the ECB decides to adjust interest rates in response. If retail sales continue to decline, we might see a shift in market sentiment, leading to a weaker Euro. Watch for key support levels around recent lows, as a break could trigger further selling pressure. On the flip side, stable sales in non-food products suggest that some sectors are resilient. This could mean opportunities in specific retail stocks or ETFs that focus on non-food categories. Keep an eye on upcoming economic indicators, as they could provide more clarity on the trajectory of consumer spending and overall economic health. 📮 Takeaway Watch for Euro weakness if retail sales continue to decline; key support levels to monitor are around recent lows in the Euro/USD pair.

Prior +0.7%; revised to +0.8%This is very much lagging data as the whole picture will change once we get to the March report. That as we will see a surge in energy inflation especially, which will translate to higher price pressures here and eventually make its way into consumer prices too. The picture before the war is quite a different one, hence there is not much to extrapolate from this report.The breakdown shows that energy prices were down 2.4% on the month and if you exclude that, overall producer prices actually increased by 0.1%.The added details show an increase in prices for intermediate goods (+0.3%), capital goods (+0.3%), and durable consumer goods (+0.2%). Meanwhile, there was a drop in prices for non-durable consumer goods (-0.2%). This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Energy inflation is set to spike, and here’s why that matters for traders right now: The revision from +0.7% to +0.8% in prior data may seem minor, but it signals a trend that traders need to pay attention to. With the March report on the horizon, expectations of rising energy costs could lead to increased price pressures across the board. This isn’t just about energy stocks; it could affect consumer goods and services, leading to broader inflation concerns. If energy prices surge, we might see a ripple effect impacting sectors like transportation and manufacturing, which are heavily reliant on energy costs. Traders should watch for key levels in energy commodities and related equities. If crude oil or natural gas prices break above recent resistance levels, it could trigger a wave of buying in those sectors. Additionally, keep an eye on inflation-linked assets like TIPS or commodities that often react to these shifts. The immediate focus should be on how the market reacts to the upcoming March report, as it could set the tone for trading strategies in the weeks ahead. 📮 Takeaway Watch for energy prices to break key resistance levels ahead of the March report, as rising inflation could impact multiple sectors.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWUSD:The US dollar sold off across the board today after Trump announced on Truth Social a two-sided ceasefire agreement for two weeks while the US and Iran negotiate a lasting peace deal. The discussions will begin on Friday in Islamabad and may be extended if both parties agree. Given the de-escalation, the risk sentiment in the markets turned around quickly and risk assets got heavily bid. As you would expect, traders went back to price in rate cuts for the Fed with now 14 bps of easing expected by year-end compared to basically zero before the ceasefire announcement. There’s still a risk that the war could restart any time as the US and Iran haven’t officially ended the hostilities. Nonetheless, the bias has now turned bearish for the dollar as traders look forward to a lasting peace deal.INR:The Indian rupee opened higher today mainly because of the US Dollar weakness and the better risk sentiment. The RBI held interest rates steady today at 5.25% and downgraded growth forecasts due to the US-Iran war. In fact, the central bank expects inflation to increase in the short-term and growth to slow down. In the big picture, the Indian Rupee remains on a bearish structural trend against the US dollar, so the dip-buyers will likely look for opportunities around strong technical levels to keep pushing into new highs, but for now the Rupee could remain supported and extend the relief rally. USDINR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that USDINR fell below the upper bound of the channel opening the door for a bigger correction. The sellers will likely pile in around the top trendline to extend the drop into the lower bound of the channel. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price rising back above the top trendline to increase the bullish bets into new highs.USDINR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we have a minor resistance zone around the 93.50 level and the upper bound of the channel. We can expect the sellers to step in around the resistance with a defined risk above the top trendline to keep pushing into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break above the top trendline to pile in for a rally into new highs.USDINR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, there’s not much we can add here but we have a downward trendline adding confluence to the resistance which could give the sellers more conviction to target new lows. UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we have the FOMC meeting minutes. Tomorrow, we get the US PCE price index and the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US CPI report and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey. As a reminder, we have also the US-Iran negotiations in Islamabad on Friday. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The US dollar’s sell-off could trigger a bullish sentiment in crypto markets, particularly for assets like SOL. With SOL currently at $84.59, traders should note that geopolitical events often lead to increased volatility. The ceasefire announcement may lead to a temporary risk-on environment, pushing investors towards cryptocurrencies as alternative assets. If SOL can maintain momentum above key support levels, it could attract more buying interest. Watch for SOL to break above recent resistance levels, which could signal a continuation of this upward trend. However, keep an eye on the broader market reactions to the peace talks; any unexpected developments could quickly reverse sentiment, impacting SOL and other altcoins. The next few days will be crucial for gauging market direction, especially as discussions unfold in Islamabad. 📮 Takeaway Monitor SOL closely; a sustained move above $85 could signal bullish momentum, but geopolitical developments may introduce volatility.

There are good developments about IranThey have agreed to open the Strait of HormuzUS and allies have agreed to stop attacking IranThat’s the basis of the “fragile truce” currentlySome people within Iran have responded very favourably to the truceUS negotiating team to work in good faith to get to an agreement with IranIf Iran doesn’t engage in good faith, “they will find out that Trump is not one to mess around”No surprises there as he sticks with a similar tone as US president Trump, in trying to sell a very positive story and that they have been “victorious”. However, I would like to emphasise again that actions speak louder than words.For now, the murmurs are that Iran isn’t exactly going to proceed with a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. As mentioned before, it is likely going to be a slow trickle in passage flow rather than a flood of vessels moving through the strait.That as we are still in a phase where both sides are needing to talk things out and having to hold their cards close to their chest. The first round of negotiations will take place later this week on 10 April in Islamabad.So, the US can claim whatever they want about the strait being open and what not. But at the end of the day, ship tracking data doesn’t lie and that will be the one telling the truth about the story come what may.As mentioned earlier today, markets may be feeling more optimistic at the moment but it is a sense of relief in buying more time for more hopeful developments. This latest ceasefire isn’t going to cut it unless activity in the Strait of Hormuz really picks up more meaningfully, allowing for Gulf nations to also ramp back up production facilities. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The recent agreement regarding the Strait of Hormuz could significantly impact oil prices and geopolitical stability. With the U.S. and allies halting attacks on Iran, traders should be aware of the potential for increased oil supply and a more stable Middle East, which historically correlates with lower crude prices. This fragile truce might lead to a decrease in risk premium associated with oil, especially if Iran resumes full production. However, it’s worth noting that such agreements can be tenuous. Any misstep could reignite tensions, leading to volatility in oil markets. Traders should keep an eye on Brent crude prices, particularly if they approach key support levels. Additionally, monitor the sentiment in the broader commodities market, as a stable Middle East could also affect gold prices, which often react inversely to geopolitical stability. Watch for updates on the U.S. negotiating team’s progress, as any signs of backtracking could lead to sharp price movements in oil and related assets. 📮 Takeaway Keep an eye on Brent crude prices around key support levels; any signs of renewed tensions could trigger volatility.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWThe S&P 500 surged into new highs today and basically erased all the March losses after Trump announced on Truth Social a two-sided ceasefire agreement for two weeks while the US and Iran negotiate a lasting peace deal. The discussions will begin on Friday in Islamabad and may be extended if both parties agree. Given the de-escalation, the risk sentiment in the markets turned around quickly and risk assets got heavily bid. As you would expect, traders went back to price in rate cuts for the Fed with now 14 bps of easing expected by year-end compared to basically zero before the ceasefire announcement. There’s still a risk that the war could restart any time as the US and Iran haven’t officially ended the hostilities. Nonetheless, the bias has now turned bullish for the S&P 500 given Iran’s acceptance of the ceasefire despite being against it for a long time. This will likely keep expectations positive for the negotiations.It goes without saying that if the negotiations fail and the conflict resumes, the S&P 500 will quickly erase all the gains and likely extend the losses into new lows.S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that the S&P 500 broke above the downward trendline and surged into new highs after Trump announced the ceasefire. If we get a pullback, we can expect the buyers to step in around the 6,765 support with a defined risk below it to keep pushing into a new all-time high. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price falling back below the support to pile back in and target a drop into the broken trendline.S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we have an upward trendline now defining the bullish momentum. If we get a pullback into the trendline, we can expect the buyers to lean on it with a defined risk below it to keep pushing into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to increase the bearish bets into new lows.S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we can see the price is currently trading above the upper bound of the average daily range for today. In such instances, we can generally see some consolidation or a pullback before the next move.UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we have the FOMC meeting minutes. Tomorrow, we get the US PCE price index and the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US CPI report and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey. As a reminder, we have also the US-Iran negotiations in Islamabad on Friday. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The S&P 500’s new highs signal a bullish sentiment, but here’s why traders should tread carefully. While the ceasefire announcement between the US and Iran is a positive catalyst, it’s essential to consider the broader implications. Markets often react optimistically to geopolitical news, but the reality of negotiations can lead to volatility. Traders should watch for potential pullbacks, especially if the talks falter or if economic indicators show weakness. Key resistance levels to monitor are around the recent highs, and a failure to hold these could trigger profit-taking. Additionally, keep an eye on related sectors, like energy, which might react to any shifts in oil prices stemming from geopolitical developments. On the flip side, if the negotiations progress smoothly, we could see further bullish momentum. However, it’s worth noting that such optimism can sometimes lead to overextensions, making it crucial to have stop-loss orders in place. Watch for the outcome of the discussions starting Friday, as this could set the tone for the market in the coming weeks. 📮 Takeaway Watch the S&P 500’s recent highs closely; a failure to maintain these levels could signal a pullback, especially if negotiations stall.