Mon: Holiday: Easter Monday, Canadian Services/Composite PMI (Mar), US ISM Services (Mar), Australian Services/Composite PMI Final (Mar), Japanese Household Spending (Feb)Tue: EIA STEO (Apr), EZ/UK Services/Composite PMI Final (Mar), US ADP Employment Change Weekly, US Durable Goods Orders (Feb), US RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (Apr), US Consumer Inflation Expectations (Mar)Wed: FOMC Minutes (Mar), RBNZ Policy Announcement (Apr), RBI Policy Announcement (Apr), Australian NAB Business Confidence (Mar), Japanese Economy Watchers Survey (Mar), German Factory Orders (Feb), UK Halifax House Price Index (Mar), French Balance Of Trade (Feb), EZ/UK Construction PMI (Mar), EZ Retail Sales (Feb), EZ PPI (Feb)Thu: Japanese Consumer Confidence (Mar), German Balance Of Trade (Feb), Mexican Inflation (Mar), US PCE (Feb/Q4), US GDP (Q4), US Jobless Claims (Mar/28), US Wholesale Inventories (Feb), Japanese PPI (Mar)Fri: Australian Consumer Inflation Expectations (Apr), BoK Policy Announcement (Apr), Chinese Inflation (Mar), German HICP Final (Mar), Italian Industrial Production (Feb), Canadian Jobs Report (Mar), US Inflation (Mar), US Factory Orders (Feb), US UoM Prelim Survey (Apr)Week AheadOPEC+ (Sun):The OPEC+ JMMC and “Voluntary Eight” are due to meet on 5 April under severe conditions after the escalation of the Middle East conflict and the near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has sharply disrupted Gulf exports and forced output cuts as storage fills. Tanker traffic through Hormuz has collapsed, while infrastructure damage and logistical constraints continue to hamper flows, despite Saudi Arabia diverting exports via the East-West pipeline to Yanbu, although shipments through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait remain exposed to Houthi attacks from Yemen. The OPEC+ “Voluntary Eight” must decide whether to proceed with a planned 206k BPD output increase or maintain or extend cuts to stabilise markets amid heightened volatility. Meanwhile, Reuters sources reported that OPEC+ is likely to consider a further oil output quota hike at its Sunday meeting to prepare for any easing of Hormuz export constraints. Brent has already surged about 60% in March, peaking near USD 120/bbl, while global supply losses are estimated at roughly 8mln BPD, and coordinated SPR releases, around 426mln barrels, are nearing exhaustion, expected by mid to late April. Focus will also be on any shift towards coordinated emergency measures or signalling on spare capacity use, while headline risk remains elevated ahead of the Iranian deadline on 6 April.Trump’s Iran Deadline (Mon):US President Trump’s April 6 deadline at 20:00 EDT (01:00 BST on Tuesday, April 7) for Iran to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz remains in force, with failure to comply risking US strikes on Iran’s power grid and energy infrastructure. The deadline has been extended several times, with an initial 48-hour ultimatum lengthened to a five-day delay on March 23 and a further 10-day extension on March 26. Trump has said “talks are going very well” while reiterating that military action remains the main leverage. Rhetoric has been mixed, with early optimism tempered by Trump’s April 1 televised address, in which he warned US forces would continue hitting Iran “extremely hard” in the coming weeks. He said a day earlier that the broader mission could conclude within 2-3 weeks. For markets, this creates a binary near-term catalyst: a resolution, ceasefire or reopening of Hormuz would likely trigger a sharp unwind in the geopolitical risk premium, particularly in crude, while failure to meet the deadline would materially raise the probability of escalation targeting energy infrastructure, worsening supply disruptions. Focus remains on any communication ahead of the deadline, with Trump able either to extend it again or proceed with escalation.US ISM Services PMI (Mon):As a basis for comparison, S&P Global’s flash US Services PMI Business Activity Index fell to 51.1 in March from 51.7 in February, an 11-month low. Services growth slowed for a second straight month as new business growth weakened and export sales fell more sharply. Firms cited softer consumer and business confidence, heightened geopolitical uncertainty, financial market volatility, higher interest rates and the cost-of-living impact of higher energy prices. Service providers also reported a weaker outlook for the year ahead, the softest since October, in contrast to improved sentiment in manufacturing. On prices, service sector cost pressures intensified and prices charged rose at the fastest pace since August 2022. Employment in services fell, contributing to the first overall decline in private sector employment in more than a year.FOMC Minutes (Wed):The FOMC left rates unchanged at 3.50-3.75%, with no change to forward guidance, balance sheet plans or implementation guidance. Miran was the sole dissenter, favouring a 25bps rate cut. The statement was little changed, though it now says unemployment has been “little changed in recent months” and adds that developments in the Middle East pose uncertain implications for the US economy. The updated projections were modestly hawkish: growth forecasts were raised across 2026-2028, inflation projections were also revised higher, most notably for 2026, while the unemployment forecast for 2026 was unchanged at 4.4%, with only a slight upward revision for 2027. The median rates path was unchanged through 2028, though the longer-run Fed funds estimate edged up to 3.1%. Powell’s press conference came across as hawkish despite the unchanged median dots. He stressed that persistent inflation, not weak growth, remained the main concern, highlighting sticky non-housing services, the need for more goods disinflation and upside risks from tariffs, oil and the Middle East. He said rate cuts would require renewed progress on inflation, while also noting that a rate rise was discussed, although most officials did not see it as the base case. Since the meeting, policymakers have generally endorsed the hawkish hold, with most favouring keeping rates steady until inflation shows clearer progress. Cuts remain possible only if the labour market weakens, but the bar is higher after the oil and war shock. Hikes are not the base case, though several officials say they cannot be ruled out if inflation worsens. Policymakers generally see a baseline of resilient growth, moderating inflation and only gradual labour market softening, but uncertainty has risen sharply. Officials have repeatedly stressed the “fog” around the outlook and a more difficult growth-inflation trade-off, though they have said policy

Trump extends Hormuz deadline to Tuesday while escalating threats to destroy Iran’s core infrastructure, keeping pressure high but leaving a narrow diplomatic window.Summary:Trump sets Tuesday 8pm USET deadline for Iran to reopen Hormuz (WSJ reporting, gated)) Deadline effectively extended from Monday Threat escalates to full power grid + bridge destruction Tone extremely aggressive, despite ongoing talk signals Iran pursuing attritional strategy, domestic mobilisation rising Market focus: oil supply risk vs. short-term diplomatic window U.S. President Donald Trump has escalated pressure on Iran, warning that the country’s power infrastructure will be systematically destroyed if Tehran does not reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday evening U.S. time, a de facto extension of an earlier Monday deadline.In remarks to The Wall Street Journal, Trump said the U.S. is prepared to target “every power plant and every other plant” across Iran if the strait remains closed, adding that key infrastructure including bridges would also be hit. The comments signal a sharp intensification in rhetoric, with Trump framing the U.S. as holding a dominant strategic position and suggesting Iran could take decades to recover from sustained strikes.The Tuesday 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time deadline, reinforced via a social media post replete with foul language, effectively pushes back the prior timeline by around 24 hours, giving a narrow window for potential de-escalation while maintaining a highly coercive stance.The escalation comes amid ongoing military operations and a fluid diplomatic backdrop. Trump indicated negotiations may still be underway, but offered no clarity on timing for an end to the conflict, stating only that developments would become clearer “pretty soon.”On the ground, the conflict continues to broaden. U.S. forces conducted a high-risk mission to rescue a downed American aviator inside Iran, underscoring the operational intensity. Meanwhile, Tehran appears committed to a prolonged conflict strategy, seeking to demonstrate control over regional oil flows and maintain pressure through disruption risks in the Persian Gulf.Iran has also mobilised domestically, invoking wartime narratives and recruitment drives, suggesting preparation for an extended confrontation.Markets are likely to interpret the deadline extension as a modest sign of diplomatic runway, but the increasingly explicit threat to civilian infrastructure, particularly energy and transport, reinforces the risk of a major escalation that could severely disrupt global oil supply chains.****WARNING! The screenshot of Trump’s tweet has foul language, so if you may be offended please avoid it. Its unlike Trump to use such language, perhaps the pressure is impacting. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Trump’s deadline extension for Iran is a double-edged sword for traders: it keeps tensions high while offering a slim chance for diplomacy. The geopolitical landscape surrounding the Strait of Hormuz is crucial for oil markets, as any disruption could lead to significant price spikes. With the deadline now set for Tuesday at 8 PM USET, traders should monitor crude oil futures closely, especially if threats escalate further. The potential for military action could send WTI crude above key resistance levels, particularly if prices breach recent highs. On the flip side, if diplomatic talks show any signs of progress, we might see a pullback in oil prices, presenting a shorting opportunity. Keep an eye on the broader market reaction, as energy stocks and related ETFs could also be impacted. The real story here is how traders react to the news—are they pricing in a worst-case scenario, or is there a sense of cautious optimism? Watch for volatility spikes in the next few days as the deadline approaches. 📮 Takeaway Monitor WTI crude prices closely as the Tuesday deadline approaches; a breach above recent highs could signal a bullish trend amid rising tensions.

Bitcoin futures price prediction today: BTC reclaims post-roll value area, but bullish repair still needs acceptance above $69,320Prediction Score: +4.0 (The prediction score ranges from -10 (extreme bearish control) through 0 (neutral or indecisive conditions) to +10 (extreme bullish control), combining both direction and confidence into a single scale.Short-term bias: moderately bullishConfidence: mediumWhat may come next is $72,475 on bitcoin futures.First, some crypto backdrop… Geopolitical tensions reached a fever pitch as Trump extends the Iran deadline to Tuesday while aggressively threatening power grid destruction, a move that has sent ripples of uncertainty across global markets. This escalation comes at a volatile time for digital assets; although Ethereum showed a flashing early bullish signal as order flows pointed toward a strong weekly opening, that optimism has largely evaporated. At the end of the week, Ethereum was cooling off but since the crypto futures market opened approximately seven hours ago, the initial bullish momentum from late last week has turned, leaving traders to navigate a landscape shaped by both technical overhead and intensifying international conflict.Bitcoin futures have made a meaningful technical improvement. On the 4h chart, price has now pushed back above the value area anchored from the March 25, 2026 contract roll-over date, which is an important signal that the market is no longer trading as weakly as it was during the late-March damage phase. At the same time, the broader order-flow read still argues for some restraint. The latest rally has reopened fair value and reclaimed a key pivot, but it has not yet fully proven that Bitcoin can hold above that area and build sustained acceptance higher.That distinction matters. A market can stage a strong repair without yet entering full bullish control. Right now, Bitcoin futures look closer to that middle ground.Why this Bitcoin futures rebound mattersThe 4h structure has improved in a way that traders should respect. Price has climbed back above the earlier value-area ceiling from the anchored profile and also above the newer developing ceiling that had formed during the repair process. That tells us buyers are not just bouncing randomly from oversold conditions. They are pushing the market back into a higher-value zone.This is the first real state improvement in the chart since the late-March decline dragged price away from the upper part of the profile and forced value lower. In practical terms, the market is trying to move from a damaged structure back into a healthier auction.That is constructive.Why the stance is bullish, but not aggressively bullishThe more cautious read comes from the internal sequence.Earlier in the selloff, Bitcoin futures repeatedly failed to turn rebounds into lasting upside control. Attempts to recover higher ground kept running into overhead friction, and the market eventually lost a major fair-value pivot before probing down toward the lower edge of the broader range. That part of the story was clearly bearish.But the bearish case also stopped getting cleaner. When price pushed below the lower edge of value, that lower ground did not hold as accepted trade. Instead, Bitcoin climbed back out of the worst area, stabilized, and started building shelves of support rather than accelerating into fresh downside control.That shift matters because it tells us the market was no longer comfortable living at the lows.The latest surge then changed the picture again. It reclaimed the main fair-value pivot near $69,320 and did so with much better internal participation than the earlier repair attempts. In plain English, buyers did not just squeeze price higher for a moment. They improved the quality of the move and shifted accepted trade back toward the middle of the larger structure.That is why the score is positive.Still, the move stopped at a key pivot rather than clearly establishing new value above it. So this is best described as bullish repair with improving acceptance, not yet a fully confirmed breakout regime.The blended read: 4h chart says reclaim, internal flow says prove itThis 4-hour Bitcoin futures chart displays a significant bullish breakout from a Volume Profile perspective. By anchoring the indicator to the contract roll-over date (March 25, 2026), the chart highlights the Value Area (VA)—the price range where 70% of all trading volume has occurred since that date. The price crossing above the top blue line, known as the Value Area High (VAH), signals that the market has moved from a state of “balance” or consolidation into “imbalance.” For investors, this indicates that buyers are now willing to transact at higher prices than the previous consensus, often a precursor to a sustained trend as the market seeks a new, higher fair value.Educationally, this setup teaches traders about Price Acceptance vs. Rejection. The horizontal bars on the left (Volume Profile) show where the “smart money” and institutional participants have been most active; the red line represents the Point of Control (POC), or the single price with the highest volume. When price breaks out of the VA and stays above it, it confirms acceptance of these new levels. If the price were to fall back inside the blue lines, it would suggest a “fakeout,” returning to the high-liquidity zone of the POC to find support. For now, the VAH has shifted from being a ceiling (resistance) to a floor (support), a classic technical shift that trend-followers use to confirm long entriesPutting both lenses together gives a more balanced view.The 4h chart says Bitcoin futures have already done something important by reclaiming the post-roll value area. That is a visible bullish improvement.The range-based order-flow read adds the nuance. It says the market has repaired enough damage to turn constructive again, but the rally still needs confirmation through acceptance above the reclaimed fair-value zone.That is why a balanced professional stance sits between outright caution and outright bullish conviction. This is no longer a clean bearish setup, but it is also not yet the kind of mature breakout structure that deserves a high-conviction bullish score.Key Bitcoin futures levels to watch nowThe first area to watch is $69,320. That is the major fair-value pivot that has just been reclaimed. Holding