UPDATE: A U.S. F-15E fighter jet was shot down over Iran during the ongoing 2026 conflict, and while one crew member was recovered quickly, the second, a weapons systems officer reportedly holding the rank of colonel, survived ejection but was injured and evaded capture for roughly 36 hours in mountainous terrain while Iranian forces and civilians searched for him, reportedly with incentives offered for his capture; the U.S. then conducted a large-scale, high-risk special operations rescue mission involving multiple aircraft and support assets, successfully extracting him alive, with U.S. officials stating there were no American fatalities, although Iranian sources claim additional U.S. aircraft were downed during the operation, reflecting the typical uncertainty and conflicting narratives seen in active conflict situations.That American fighter was injured and walked 7 km from the downed plane, getting out of danger and finding a hiding spot. A long and hard life-or-captive saga of 36 hours.Previously reported:This is not a one-sided war. Iran has shown it can still hit back. Iranian fire brought down a U.S. F-15E, an A-10 was also hit during the rescue effort, and the wider conflict has now wounded 365 U.S. service members and killed 13, according to Pentagon data reported by AP. Iran is also still using the Strait of Hormuz as leverage, and Reuters reported that U.S. intelligence thinks Tehran is unlikely to loosen its grip on the waterway soon.The search for the missing airman from the downed F-15 is still on and I hope he will find his way to peace and back to his family’s arms.But Iran has also been hit hard in the past 48 hours. There were strikes on a petrochemical zone in southwestern Iran that injured five people, a projectile hitting an auxiliary building near the Bushehr nuclear plant that killed one person, airstrikes on warehouses storing bottled water in western Iran, a hit on a Red Crescent relief warehouse in Bushehr, and earlier strikes that damaged the new B1 bridge between Tehran and Karaj. Separate Reuters reporting said airstrikes on the Iranian side of the Iraq border killed one Iraqi and seriously wounded at least five others. More broadly, Reuters reported on March 27, citing the IFRC and Iranian Red Crescent, that more than 1,900 people had been killed and at least 20,000 injured inside Iran since the start of the U.S.-Israeli attacks.One correction is also important for accuracy about Iran hitting an Oracle (ticker: ORCL) in Dubai. The Oracle item should be toned down. Dubai authorities reported no injuries after debris from aerial interceptions hit the facades of two buildings, including Oracle’s Dubai office. That is more careful and more accurate than saying Iran directly struck Oracle’s headquarters. The stock is still bombed with a 57% down from its ATH from 05 Sept 2025, so not sure it cares about that little Dubai hit vs other worries it might have had.And here is my simple market take:Stocks. My read is mixed, but definately not automatic crash mode like many voices I’m hearing on social media. Global stocks were mixed rather than uniformly down this week, but fuel-sensitive areas like airlines and transport remain vulnerable when oil jumps. Energy names may hold up better. Defense stocks are not a guaranteed winner from here either, because U.S. defense shares actually underperformed in March as investors unwound a crowded “buy the conflict” trade. Stocks like Intel are more bullish than bearish so a dip may have been found but we need to see if it holds (like Intel protecting $50 per share).The USD ($). The pattern has been simple: bad war headlines tend to help the USD because investors run to safety, while ceasefire hopes weaken it again. So we still have the US Dollar strengthening on renewed escalation fears and softening when ceasefire hopes briefly rose. Oil. This is still the clearest upside-risk market. Oil told short sellers ‘April Fool’s!” as it rose more than 14% from 01 to 02 April. Oil prices jumped after Trump’s latest threats, and intelligence assessments say Iran is unlikely to give up its Hormuz leverage soon. If the strait stays squeezed, oil remains the most obvious pressure point for the global economy. Gold. Gold is supported by fear, but not in a straight line. Gold can rise when the USD softens, but it can also fall when investors rush into $ cash. So the better way to think about gold here is “supported but choppy,” not “guaranteed up every day.” Your pocket at home. The first hit is usually fuel, flights and delivery costs. The second hit is groceries and household goods. Higher energy prices are already pushing up factory input costs, air freight rates and food-price pressure. It also reported that jet fuel in Europe hit around $220 a barrel, which tends to feed quickly into airline tickets, and that natural gas prices in Europe and Asia are soaring, which can raise power bills. At the same time, the Fed said on April 1 that households and firms still seemed to be treating the oil shock as more short-term than permanent, so the pain is real, but it has not yet turned into full demand collapse.My plain-English takeaway is this: if the war stays hot and Hormuz stays constrained, oil is the most obvious winner, the USD keeps a fear bid, gold stays volatile, and households feel it through petrol, flights, utilities and later food. If diplomacy suddenly gains traction, stocks can bounce fast and the Dollar can give back part of its safe-haven premium. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source