It’s the first Friday of the month and that means it’s time for non-farm payrolls. It’s a holiday today in much of the world and US stock and bond markets are closed, so that will make for an interesting released. The FX market has been quiet so far today and S&P 500 futures are down 17 points. Those will be two of the spots I’m watching in the aftermath of the release.Some quick reading:Why are non-farm payrolls being released on Good Friday? Here’s what’s open and what isn’tWhat is the distribution of forecasts for the US NFP?Preview: February non-farm payrolls by the numbers. A Good Friday report This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Non-farm payrolls are dropping today, and here’s why that matters: the market’s reaction could set the tone for next week. With the US stock and bond markets closed, the FX market is likely to see reduced volatility, but that doesn’t mean traders should ignore the implications of the payroll data. Historically, strong payroll numbers can lead to a stronger dollar, while weak numbers might trigger a sell-off. Given that it’s a holiday, many traders might be sidelined, but the data release could still influence sentiment. Watch for how the dollar reacts against major pairs like EUR/USD and USD/JPY. If payrolls come in significantly above or below expectations, we could see sharp moves next week, especially as liquidity returns. Keep an eye on the 1.1000 level for EUR/USD and 145.00 for USD/JPY as potential breakout points. The flip side? If the numbers are mixed, we might see a muted response, leading to a range-bound market. So, be ready to adjust your strategies based on the data release and market reactions next week. 📮 Takeaway Watch the non-farm payrolls data closely; significant deviations could trigger moves in the dollar, especially against EUR/USD and USD/JPY next week.

Prior -92K (revised to -133K)Two-month net revision -7KJanuary was +126K (revised to +160K). December was -141K Unemployment rate 4.3% vs 4.4% expected. Prior unemployment rate 4.4%. Unrounded unemployment 4.256%% vs 4.441% priorParticipation rate 61.9% vs 62.0% priorU6 underemployment rate 8.0% vs 7.9% priorAverage hourly earnings +0.2% m/m vs +0.3% expectedAverage hourly earnings +3.5% y/y vs +3.7% expectedAverage weekly hours 34.2 vs 34.3 expectedChange in private payrolls +186K vs +70K expectedChange in manufacturing payrolls +15K vs -5K expectedGovernment payrolls -8K vs -6K in FebruarySectors:Health care: +76K vs -28K priorConstruction: +26K vs -13K prior (revised from -11K)Social assistance: +14K vs +9K prior (revised to +5K)Financial activities: -15K vs +2K prior (revised from 0K)Transportation and warehousing: +21K vs -49K prior (revised from -11K)Professional and business services: +2K vs +7K prior (revised from 0K)There is plenty of good news in this report for the Fed and it should shut the door on rate-cut talk for a bit, if it wasn’t already closed by the war. Not only are jobs strong but the unemployment rate fell and wage numbers improved. That’s goldilocks stuff.The one caveat is the ongoing fall in labor force participation. Some of that is demographic but if it had stayed steady at 62.5% (where it was in November) then unemployment would be at 4.9%.For background, the US nonfarm payrolls report, published monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, is one of the most closely watched economic indicators in the world. It measures the net change in the number of employed people across nearly all sectors of the economy, excluding farm workers, private household employees, and nonprofit organization employees. The report, formally known as the Employment Situation, draws on two surveys: the establishment survey, which produces the payrolls figure from a sample of roughly 119,000 businesses, and the household survey, which generates the unemployment rate from interviews with about 60,000 households.The labor market entered 2026 in a weakened state. A major benchmark revision released with the January report revealed that 2025 job growth had been significantly overstated, with the full-year gain revised down from roughly 584,000 to just 181,000 — an average of about 15,000 jobs per month. Federal government employment has been a persistent drag, declining by approximately 330,000, or 11 percent, since peaking in October 2024 as the administration pursued workforce reductions.February’s report showed the economy shedding 92,000 jobs, the third decline in five months and well below expectations of a roughly 59,000 gain. A Kaiser Permanente strike sidelined over 30,000 healthcare workers, and severe winter weather weighed on construction and other sectors. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4 percent from 4.3 percent in January. On the positive side, wages continued to grow, with average hourly earnings rising 0.4 percent for the month and 3.8 percent year-over-year, both slightly above forecasts. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The latest employment data shows a mixed bag, and here’s why it matters: the downward revision in job numbers could signal a slowdown in economic momentum. With the unemployment rate dipping to 4.3%, slightly better than expected, it might seem like good news. But the revision from -92K to -133K in prior job losses raises questions about the labor market’s health. Average hourly earnings growth at +0.2% also fell short of the +0.3% forecast, indicating potential wage stagnation. This could affect consumer spending and, consequently, market sentiment. Traders should keep an eye on the participation rate, which slipped to 61.9%, as it reflects the overall labor market engagement. For those trading equities or forex, this data could lead to volatility, especially if the market reacts to the perceived weakness in job creation. Watch for key technical levels in major indices and currency pairs, particularly if they start to break down in response to this news. The next few trading sessions will be crucial as investors digest these figures and adjust their positions accordingly. 📮 Takeaway Monitor the S&P 500 and USD pairs closely; a breach below recent support levels could indicate further downside risk in response to the weak job data.

Trump posted this on Truth Social:With a little more time, we can easily OPEN THE HORMUZ STRAIT, TAKE THE OIL, & MAKE A FORTUNE. IT WOULD BE A “GUSHER” FOR THE WORLD??? President DONALD J. TRUMPTrump initially pitched a 4-6 week timeline for this war and then repeatedly said they were ahead of schedule. Today marks the end of the fifth week and now Trump is talking about “a little more time”. Officials have floated 2-3 more weeks but this sounds like he’s nudging the discourse towards something longer.The idea of ‘taking the oil’ is the sort of thing that sparks a forever war, as you have to secure all those facilities and fields.Yesterday, the US also escalated the conflict by bombing Iran’s largest bridge, along with Trump warning that more is coming. Monday at 8 pm ET is his ‘deadline’ for opening Hormuz or bombing Iran’s energy infrastructure. There is also a build up of US ground troops and special forces that numbers in the 10-20K range in the region. That’s not nearly enough for a proper ground invasion or ‘taking the oil’ In terms of the fight, a notable development today was that an F-15 was shot down in Iran.An ejection seat from the plane has been found by residents in Southern Iran, the whereabouts or status of the pilot and weapons officer is currently unknown, with unconfirmed reports that one or both of the crewmembers have been captured by members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).A pair of prisoners of war could complicate negotiations but I wouldn’t rule out that the US was able to extract the pilots either.On the US fiscal side, Trump is out with a budget proposal that would raise military spending by 40%.S&P 500 futures are down 20 points, or 0.3% in today’s holiday-thinned session. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Trump’s comments on the Hormuz Strait could shake oil markets—here’s why. The geopolitical tension surrounding the Hormuz Strait is a critical point for oil traders, as it accounts for a significant portion of the world’s oil supply. Trump’s suggestion to ‘open’ the Strait and capitalize on oil resources could signal a shift in U.S. foreign policy, potentially escalating tensions in the region. If this rhetoric translates into action, we could see volatility in crude oil prices, particularly if traders react to any military movements or sanctions. Watch for Brent crude to test key resistance levels around $90, as any disruption could push prices higher. But here’s the flip side: if this is just political posturing, we might see a quick pullback in oil prices as traders reassess the situation. Keep an eye on the daily charts for signs of bullish or bearish momentum, especially around any major announcements from the U.S. government. Overall, the situation is fluid, and traders should be prepared for rapid shifts in sentiment and price action. 📮 Takeaway Monitor Brent crude around $90 for potential breakout or reversal signals as geopolitical tensions evolve.

The July 1 deadline for the USMCA six-year review is approaching and almost nobody in trade circles believes it will be met cleanly. A Scotiabank-hosted event in Mexico City this week with CSIS fellow Diego Marroquín Bitar laid out why, and the takeaway is straightforward: expect a drawn-out, painful process that extends well into 2027, with plenty of uncertainty along the way.That’s a bearish scenario for both CAD and MXN and helps to explain why the loonie has traded cautiously despite the big rally in oil prices.The base case — what Marroquín and CSIS co-author Bill Reinsch call a “painful extension” — means Mexico and Canada eventually make enough concessions on energy, steel rules, Chinese investment, and other sore points to get Washington to sign off. But that deal won’t come easily, and the fact that serious bilateral talks got started late makes a tidy resolution this year nearly impossible, they believe. What’s interesting is how differently Ottawa and Mexico City are playing this. Mexico is leaning in — deepening integration with the U.S., trying to make itself indispensable to American supply chains, cooperating on fentanyl enforcement more than many expected under President Sheinbaum. Canada is hedging, diversifying trade partners to reduce its leverage exposure to Washington. Both strategies carry risk. Mexico’s accommodation could still run into domestic political constraints around energy sovereignty and judicial reform. Canada’s diversification play is limited by geography — you can only pivot so far when 75% of your exports go south.The China angle is the one that has real bipartisan heat in Washington. Both parties want Chinese investment out of Mexico’s strategic sectors — EVs, energy, infrastructure — and they view Mexico as a potential back door for Chinese inputs entering North American supply chains. That makes for a problem but Mexico has signaled alignment here and the U.S. will want it codified in the agreement with teeth.Rules of origin in autos are the other flashpoint to watch. The current 75% regional content threshold could be pushed toward 85%, which manufacturers with Mexican operations say isn’t feasible on a short timeline. Tighter rules without transition periods would disrupt the integrated production model that makes North American auto manufacturing competitive in the first place. The irony of protectionist overreach making the continent less competitive is not lost on anyone at the negotiating table, but that doesn’t mean it won’t happen.There’s a wild card worth flagging. The Supreme Court’s ruling against IEEPA tariffs has taken away Washington’s easiest unilateral tool, which means the USMCA review itself becomes the primary U.S. leverage point. That concentrates the pressure but also raises the stakes — if the administration can’t extract concessions through the review process, there’s no plan B sitting in the back pocket.The geopolitical backdrop may actually help. The U.S. has limited bandwidth with the Iran situation still unresolved, and opening too many fronts simultaneously carries costs heading into midterms. That could paradoxically push Washington toward getting something done on USMCA rather than letting it languish.Near-term milestones: USMCA preparations should ramp through April. The USTR Section 301 investigation covering both Mexico and Canada has an April 15 deadline for written submissions, with hearings starting April 28. That’s when the real contours of U.S. demands will start to crystallize.The advisors in the report believe the USMCA probably survives in some form — the economic integration runs too deep for anyone to walk away. But the version that emerges on the other side could look meaningfully different, with tighter rules, more restrictions, and a power dynamic that tilts further toward Washington. For anyone positioned in Canadian or Mexican equities, the auto sector, or cross-border supply chain plays, this is the slow-moving story that deserves more attention than it’s getting.Ultimately, I believe that it will be a big tailwind for MXN and CAD once it’s resolved but they raise good points about the negotiations dragging on. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The looming July 1 deadline for the USMCA review is a ticking time bomb for traders. With trade circles bracing for a messy outcome, the implications for forex and commodities markets could be significant. A prolonged negotiation process might lead to increased volatility in the Mexican peso and Canadian dollar, as uncertainty often drives speculative trading. Traders should keep an eye on how these currencies react in the lead-up to the deadline, especially if any preliminary statements hint at delays or complications. Additionally, commodities tied to North American trade, like agricultural products, could see price swings based on market sentiment surrounding the USMCA negotiations. Here’s the kicker: while mainstream coverage focuses on the deadline itself, the real story is how traders can position themselves ahead of potential fallout. Monitoring key economic indicators and sentiment shifts in the lead-up to July will be crucial. Watch for any sudden movements in the peso or CAD, particularly if they breach significant support or resistance levels, as these could signal larger trends in response to the USMCA situation. 📮 Takeaway Keep an eye on the Mexican peso and Canadian dollar as the July 1 USMCA deadline approaches; volatility is likely if negotiations stall.