It is that time of the month again and the weekend break sort of splits the momentum in closing out March trading this time around. It leaves the last two days of the month to work with, before we transition to April in the middle of the week. That’s not quite a clean look and feel to things but it is what it is.As we get into the new week, month-end flows will be a consideration in the sessions ahead. And seeing what analysts are saying, dollar buying looks to be what most are pointing to this time around.Credit Agricole notes that their month-end fixing model is pointing to “moderate” bids in the dollar against the rest of the major currencies bloc.”The moves in equity markets, when adjusted for market capitalisation and FX performance this month, suggest that month-end portfolio-rebalancing flows are likely to be moderate USD buying across the board with the strongest buy signal in the case of the USD vs the NOK.”To pair with that, Barclays is also suggesting a similar read as we look to this month-end. The firm notes that there should be “strong” dollar buying this time around for the most part.”Our passive month-end and quarter-end rebalancing model shows strong USD buying against most majors, and moderate buying against the EUR, JPY, and GBP.”While these flows can be spread out across the span of a few days, just be wary that month-end shenanigans can and tend to also hit closer to the London fix. So, that will be one to watch out for in the coming two days.The dollar itself had already been trading firmer last week, rebounding well after the Monday drop to post a solid weekly advance. Do keep that in mind as well with some key levels on the charts also in play, not least with USD/JPY testing the waters at the 160.00 level. And that could also invite intervention from Tokyo if they see fit. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source

I am looking at Etherum via the Ether futures chart looks like a market that is trying to stabilize and mean-revert after a very volatile March.In plain English, ETH had a strong upside push, failed to hold the higher prices, and is now rotating back toward the area where the market has done the most business. That is often what a mean-reversion phase looks like. Price is no longer in a clean impulsive uptrend, but it is also not collapsing. It is searching for balance.Ethereum price structure explainedETH is trading around $2,054, which is a respectable bounce, but the larger structure still shows some technical damage from the failed rally into the $2,390 area. That push higher was rejected, and since then the market has been unable to fully reclaim the more important overhead levels.The main resistance levels on my chart above are still $2,156.5 and $2,209.5. These acted as important ceilings during March. For bulls, that is the area that needs to be retaken and then held. Until that happens, the recent recovery is better described as a bounce inside a broader rebalancing process rather than a confirmed new uptrend.On the downside, the chart shows a very important lower framework around $1,980, then $1,914, then the March swing low near $1,803.5. If the market were to lose those levels in sequence, the deeper floor near $1,748.5 would come back into view.Ethereum technical analysis today: Volume profile and market balanceThe visible profile on the left has a fairly D-shaped look, which is often associated with a more balanced market. Educationally, that matters because a D-shape usually tells you the market is spending time agreeing on value, not trending aggressively away from it.The heaviest trading seems concentrated roughly between $1,950 and $2,080, which helps explain why price is currently gravitating back into that zone. This is where the market has memory. When price is inside that thick part of the profile, it often chops, rotates, and tests both sides before choosing its next directional move.That also fits with the idea of stabilization. ETH is no longer in the fast upside auction that carried it toward $2,390. It is now back near its more accepted value area.An important educational point here is the thinner volume zone above roughly $2,210. Thin areas tend to mean less historical friction. So if ETH can reclaim and hold above the nearby resistance, price can sometimes travel faster through those zones because there is less prior trade there to slow it down. That is why a successful break above $2,156.5 and especially $2,209.5 could open the way back toward $2,390 to $2,405.The technical analysis educational corner: Mean reversion and why it mattersMean reversion does not automatically mean bullish. It simply means the market is moving back toward its central value area after becoming stretched.That is a useful lens for this chart. ETH sold off from the highs, found support, and is now trying to hold around the area where the market has previously accepted price. In technical analysis terms, the current question is whether this is only a temporary return to fair value before another leg lower, or the early stage of a more durable base.Ether’s forward curve and broader contextThe forward curve shown on the right is in contango, with later-dated ETH futures priced above the nearer contract. Educationally, contango usually suggests the market is willing to price somewhat higher levels in the future (which is typically “healthy” for the bullish case). It often reflects carry, time, and a market that is not pricing long-term stress as severely as the short-term chart may imply.That said, contango is not the same thing as immediate bullish momentum. The short-term chart still matters. ETH remains below the March highs, and the failure to sustain the move above the mid-March resistance zone leaves a lower-high style structure in place until proven otherwise.Practical reading of the chartA simple way to frame the chart is this:$1,980 is the key pivot and balance area$2,156.5 to $2,209.5 is the overhead gate bulls need to reclaim$1,914 is the next important support if the bounce fadesSo the educational takeaway is:If ETH can continue to hold above the high-volume middle of the range (advanced tip: Watch $2118 in Ether futures, above that, bulls are good… And give it some time to see it’s not a “fakie”) then the chart starts to shift from stabilization into recovery. If the bounce stalls again under resistance and slips back through the pivot zone, then the market is probably not done testing lower support.In practical terms, this is a chart of rebalancing after failed upside expansion, with the next directional clue likely coming from how price behaves around $1,980 on the downside and $2,156.5 to $2,209.5 on the upside. In between? Remember the key level of $2118 and watch it for guidance, IMHO.Ethereum technical analysis today: What to does the order flow tell us?Prediction Score: +6Score context: On a scale from -10 to +10, a +6 reflects a clear bullish bias with solid conviction, but not an extreme or one-sided setup.After I checked the order flow at Ether futures, the analysis shows that this week opened with a bullish tone in ETH futures.The main reason is that the order flow picture points to buyers gaining the upper hand early and then maintaining that advantage instead of fading quickly. In our heavier internal read of the opening sequence, the important takeaway is that buying pressure was not isolated to just one brief push. It showed enough follow-through to suggest a firmer opening tone.A few things stood out:Delta stayed constructive overall, with several positive pushes that helped confirm buyer control rather than a weak or easily rejected bounce.POC shifted higher and then held there, which is an important clue that the market was willing to do business at stronger prices instead of immediately rotating back down.The opening sequence also showed a healthier pattern of participation, with buyers repeatedly stepping in after minor interruptions rather than losing control of the tape.That combination is

There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below.That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1550 level. It’s a modest-sized one but not likely to feature much into play. The expiries do sit near the confluence of the key hourly moving averages, seen at 1.1548-57 currently. So, that could add another layer in terms of limiting any upside extensions to price action in the session ahead.The dollar is keeping steadier to start the new week though the risk mood is also calmer after the heavy selloff on Friday. The US-Iran conflict and accompanying headlines remain the key driver of trading sentiment. So, that overrides everything else including the potential impact for any expiries still.In terms of data releases, there won’t be much in Europe to shake things up today with only the German CPI figures to work with. That might offer some interest considering that we could start to see some impact of higher energy prices on March data, at least the early signs.Besides all of that, month-end and quarter-end flows will also be a consideration. So, keep that in mind especially as we gear towards the London fix over the next two days.For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.Head on over to investingLive (formerly ForexLive) to get in on the know! This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight EUR/USD is hovering around the 1.1550 level, and here’s why that matters: This level is significant as it aligns with key hourly moving averages, suggesting potential volatility if breached. Traders should keep an eye on this confluence point; a break below could trigger further selling pressure, while a bounce could indicate bullish sentiment. Given the current market dynamics, where economic indicators are fluctuating, this level could serve as a pivot for short-term trading strategies. If you’re looking at day trading or swing trading, monitoring price action around 1.1550 will be crucial. But don’t forget, the broader context matters too. With the euro facing headwinds from economic uncertainty in the Eurozone, any unexpected moves could lead to rapid shifts in sentiment. Watch for news releases or economic data that could impact the euro, as these could create additional volatility around this level. 📮 Takeaway Keep a close watch on EUR/USD at 1.1550; a break could signal a shift in momentum for short-term trades.

This will be quite the anticipated report to watch in the session ahead. Prior to the US-Iran conflict, German inflation was already the key sticking point for the ECB in preventing the central bank from pursuing further rate cuts. Price pressures in Europe’s largest economy have been stubborn and showed little signs of waning upon the turn of the year.So when you factor in the Middle East developments in the past month, everything is turning up bad again. German manufacturing had been on the recovery path upon the turn of the year. And that has helped to alleviate some pressures on the economy for a while now.But with prices set to hit harder there amid surging input cost inflation, that will be a key challenge for the manufacturing sector in the months ahead. That especially if higher energy prices become more entrenched as the Middle East conflict stretches on.And therein lies the risk for inflation in Germany as well. Core annual inflation was seen at 2.5% in February, with services inflation being the main reason for the stickier reading. The latter was seen at 3.2% last month.This time around, headline inflation is likely to see a standout jump as higher energy prices strike first. The war may have been only going on for a month, but the impact will be evident when we see the German price figures later.Of note, headline annual inflation is expected to climb to 2.7% in March – up from 1.9% in February. If met, that will be the highest reading since January 2024. The monthly inflation figure is expected to surge by 1.1%, which will be the highest since September 2022.I wouldn’t expect surging prices to hit core inflation just yet. It will take time to filter through but the longer the US-Iran conflict lasts, the odds of that happening are much higher.Here’s the agenda for today:0800 GMT – North Rhine Westphalia0800 GMT – Hesse0800 GMT – Bavaria0800 GMT – Baden Wuerttemberg0800 GMT – Saxony1200 GMT – Germany national preliminary figuresDo note that the releases don’t exactly follow the schedule at times and may be released a little earlier or later. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight So German inflation is still a hot topic, and here’s why that matters: the ECB’s stance on interest rates hinges on these numbers. With the US-Iran conflict adding uncertainty, traders need to be on high alert. If inflation remains elevated, it could prevent the ECB from cutting rates, which would keep the euro stronger against other currencies, impacting forex pairs like EUR/USD. Look at the broader context—if inflation pressures persist, we might see a shift in market sentiment towards risk-off assets. This could lead to increased volatility in equities and commodities as investors reassess their positions. Keep an eye on key inflation data releases; if they come in higher than expected, it could trigger a rally in the euro and a sell-off in riskier assets. Conversely, if inflation shows signs of easing, expect the opposite reaction. Watch for the upcoming inflation report and how it aligns with ECB communications. This could be a pivotal moment for traders looking to position themselves ahead of potential rate changes. 📮 Takeaway Monitor the upcoming German inflation report closely; a higher reading could strengthen the euro and impact EUR/USD significantly.

Monday starts quietly, with no significant economic events scheduled for the FX market. For now, the key focus remains on developments about the conflict in Iran.The only other event of note on Monday is Fed Chair Powell’s participation in a moderated discussion at Harvard University in Massachusetts, which will include audience questions. While it is not expected to move markets, it remains worth watching for any noteworthy comments. On Tuesday, the Eurozone will release inflation data, while the U.S. will publish JOLTS job openings and Conference Board consumer confidence. Canada will also report its GDP m/m. Wednesday brings U.S. data including ADP employment change, retail sales m/m, and the ISM manufacturing PMI. Canada will release the BoC Summary of Deliberations. On Thursday, attention will turn to U.S. unemployment claims and Friday the focus will be on average hourly earnings m/m, the non-farm employment change and the unemployment rate. It is also worth noting that banks will be closed in many European countries, Canada and other parts of the world due to the Good Friday holiday, which could result in lower liquidity and more irregular market volatility. Several FOMC members are expected to deliver remarks throughout the week and don’t forget that the daylight saving time change has happened in Europe this weekend. Inflation data for the eurozone is expected to come in stronger, driven by rising energy prices, which could complicate the ECB’s goal for inflation to move toward a more favorable range. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has intensified price pressures, with its effects building throughout the month. However, as the situation is still evolving, it remains unclear how these dynamics will be reflected in the data. Some analysts expect the ECB to begin raising rates later this year, but it is still too early to draw firm conclusions. In Canada, the consensus for GDP m/m is 0.0%, compared with 0.2% previously. Following modest growth in December, the Canadian economy appears to have lost some momentum. This slowdown is largely due to temporary disruptions in the auto sector and weaker housing-related activity, partly driven by severe weather. However, strong energy output and resilient consumer spending have helped cushion the impact. RBC analysts note that early data points to a partial rebound in February, as auto production normalizes and consumer spending remains firm. Manufacturing and wholesale activity are also showing signs of recovery, although housing is likely to remain subdued. Overall, Q1 growth is still expected to be modest, with improvements in February and March offsetting the weak start to the year. On the external side, Canada’s trade deficit is projected to narrow, supported by recovering auto exports and higher oil prices, with further improvement likely if energy markets remain elevated. From a monetary policy perspective, the BoC’s upcoming summary of its March decision is expected to reinforce a broadly balanced stance, suggesting that the current policy rate is appropriately set while officials monitor incoming data. However, the details may provide further insight into how concerned policymakers are about renewed inflation pressures, particularly from higher energy costs. The consensus for U.S. retail sales m/m is 0.4% versus -0.2% previously, while core retail sales m/m are expected to print 0.3% vs. 0.0%. The main driver of this week’s data is likely to be strong auto purchases in February, although the broader outlook remains less encouraging. Elevated energy costs are expected to weigh on consumers’ disposable income, potentially limiting spending on non-essential goods despite the boost from vehicle sales. In the U.S., the consensus for average hourly earnings m/m is 0.3% vs. 0.4% previously. Non-farm payrolls are expected to rise by 56K, following a -92K print, while the unemployment rate is projected to remain unchanged at 4.4%. Recent indicators suggest some softening in hiring after February’s downside surprise, which was partly driven by weather-related disruptions. While the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady, there is a risk it could edge up to 4.5%. A weaker-than-expected report could prompt markets to reassess expectations for future Fed rate cuts, which have already been largely priced out amid the conflict in Iran. Given the Fed’s dual mandate of price stability and full employment, policymakers are likely to view any short-term spike in energy prices as temporary, rather than as a signal for significant policy adjustments. This article was written by Gina Constantin at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source

Composite indicators on medium-to-long-term inflation expectations show a gradual increase towards 2%Underlying inflation must be judged comprehensively by examining a wide range of informationIf recent rise in food prices were to persist, they could exert sustained upward impact on consumer pricesThe output gap has been on an improving trendLabour market remains extremely tight and wages are rising moderatelyFirms are continuing to pass on higher wagesThe mechanism in which wages and prices are rising moderately in tandem has been taking holdIncrease in oil prices can affect underlying inflation in both different directions, upward and downwardGiven changes in firms’ price-setting behaviour, prices may not be more susceptible to depreciation in yen currencyFull releaseThere’s nothing there that hasn’t already been said by the BOJ in recent weeks. That especially after they sort of pushed back against the government in releasing a new monthly core CPI estimate and also revaluing the estimated natural rate of interest in the past week. So, this is just a follow up on that.For some context, the BOJ had been under a bit of scrutiny lately as Japan’s headline inflation numbers show a drop back below the desired 2% target level. However, the central bank remains adamant that core prices and underlying inflation in general remains on an upward trajectory.As such, they are defending that raising interest rates remains the right path for monetary policy. That despite also challenges from the government. Hence, resulting in all the “evidence” being released in the past week in trying to prove to markets and the public that they are indeed the ones that are right. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Inflation expectations are creeping up, and here’s why traders should care: The gradual rise towards 2% in medium-to-long-term inflation signals potential shifts in monetary policy. If food prices continue to climb, we could see sustained upward pressure on consumer prices, which might prompt central banks to tighten their policies sooner than expected. This could impact interest rates and, consequently, forex pairs sensitive to rate changes. Traders should keep an eye on the output gap, which has been improving, as it often correlates with inflationary pressures. A tighter labor market could further exacerbate inflation, leading to increased wage demands. This scenario might create volatility in both the forex and equity markets, particularly in sectors reliant on consumer spending. Watch for key economic indicators, such as CPI releases and employment reports, as they could provide clues on how aggressively central banks might act. If inflation data surprises to the upside, expect a potential sell-off in risk assets as traders adjust their positions ahead of tighter monetary policy. 📮 Takeaway Monitor inflation data closely; a sustained rise could trigger central banks to act, impacting forex and equities significantly.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWUSD:The US dollar strengthened across the board heading into the weekend as traders hedged on risks of a potential ground invasion. This morning, we are seeing some weakness as those hedges get unwound. The focus remains solely on the US-Iran negotiations and there’s some cautious optimism as Pakistan confirmed that negotiations may take place in Islamabad in the coming days and Trump said that they are performing extremely well and they could make a deal pretty soon, although he added that they might fail as well.The path of least resistance for the dollar remains to the upside. Traders will keep a watchful eye on the headlines and especially on Trump’s Truth Social account, as we are always one post away from huge market moves. Traders are not pricing in any change to interest rates this year as we have just 5 bps of tightening expected by year-end.JPY:On the JPY side, nothing has changed as lack of progress on the inflation front and geopolitical risks will likely keep weighing on the currency. The latest Japanese CPI report showed further easing in inflation with the Core figure falling well below the BoJ’s 2% target. The BoJ last week has announced that it will begin publishing data on the estimated core consumer price inflation rate but even their estimates are not really calling for immediate action. On the wage growth side, the initial outcome of the spring wage negotiations points to a third straight fiscal year in which Japan sees average wage hikes of above 5%. This should keep the tightening bias intact, but the central bank might want to wait for the US-Iran war to end to avoid exacerbating growth fears.We got some verbal intervention in the APAC session which gave the yen some reprieve. Traders are pricing in a 61% chance of a rate hike at the upcoming meeting with a total of 50 bps of tightening by year-end.USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that USDJPY probed above the 160.00 handle but couldn’t sustain a breakout as the price pulled back. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a better risk to reward setup around the 157.65 support to position for a rally into the 161.95 level. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking below the support to open the door for a bigger correction into the 154.00 handle.USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we have a minor upward trendline defining the bullish momentum and the confluence with the broken resistance around the 159.60 level. We can expect the buyers to step in here with a defined risk below the trendline to keep pushing into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break to pile in for a drop into the 157.65 support.USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, there’s not much we can add here as the buyers will look for a bounce around these levels, while the sellers will target a break. The red lines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we have Fed Chair Powell speaking. Tomorrow, we get the Tokyo CPI, the US Consumer Confidence and US Job Openings data. On Wednesday, we have the US ADP, the US Retail Sales and the US ISM Manufacturing PMI. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US NFP report. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The US dollar’s recent strength is shifting as traders unwind hedges, and here’s why that matters for crypto: With SOL currently at $83.88, the interplay between geopolitical tensions and currency strength could create volatility in crypto markets. As the dollar weakens, we might see increased capital flow into altcoins like Solana, especially if traders seek higher returns outside traditional fiat. Keep an eye on the US-Iran negotiations; any positive developments could further weaken the dollar, potentially pushing SOL higher. However, if the dollar strengthens again due to renewed geopolitical fears, SOL could face downward pressure. Watch for key support levels around $80; a break below that could trigger stop-loss orders and lead to a sharper decline. On the flip side, if SOL can hold above $85, it might attract more buyers looking for a breakout. Traders should monitor the dollar index closely, as its movements will likely dictate the sentiment in crypto markets over the coming days. 📮 Takeaway Watch SOL closely; if it holds above $85, it could signal a bullish breakout, while a drop below $80 may trigger further selling.

The other state releases around the same time:Brandenburg CPI +% vs +2.0% y/y priorHesse CPI +% vs +2.2% y/y priorSaxony CPI +2.6% vs +1.9% y/y priorNorth Rhine Westphalia +2.7% vs +1.8% y/y priorBaden Wuerttemberg CPI +2.5% vs +1.8% y/y priorThe readings point to higher headline annual inflation in March than in February with broad monthly increases as well. That is very much expected amid higher energy prices due to the US-Iran conflict. So, we are already seeing the early indications of that with more impact set to follow in the weeks/months ahead.The monthly readings are also strong as seen below:Bavaria CPI +1.2% m/mSaxony CPI +1.1% m/mNorth Rhine Westphalia +1.2% m/mBaden Wuerttemberg +1.2% m/mThe national estimate later is seen at 2.7%, as compared to the 1.9% in February. So far, the numbers above point to the likelihood that we will get something along the lines of 2.6% to 2.7%. So, we’ll see. But either way, it will just reaffirm stronger headline inflation for March.However, that is not likely to feed through to core prices just yet. As mentioned earlier, it will take time before it shows up in core inflation. But the longer the US-Iran conflict drags on, the higher the risk of stronger price pressures becoming more entrenched and spilling over to core prices and the broader economy. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Inflation readings from multiple German states are showing an uptick, and here’s why that matters: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures from Brandenburg, Hesse, Saxony, North Rhine Westphalia, and Baden Wuerttemberg indicate a rising trend in inflation, with Saxony and North Rhine Westphalia notably hitting 2.6% and 2.7% respectively. This could signal a broader economic shift, prompting the European Central Bank (ECB) to reconsider its monetary policy stance. If inflation continues to climb, we might see interest rates rise sooner than expected, which would impact both the euro and related assets like bonds and equities. Traders should keep an eye on how these inflation metrics influence the euro’s performance against the dollar, especially if we see a break above key resistance levels. The immediate reaction could lead to increased volatility in forex markets, particularly for EUR/USD. Watch for any ECB comments or policy shifts in the coming weeks, as these could provide critical insights into future market movements. 📮 Takeaway Monitor the euro’s response to rising inflation in Germany; a break above key resistance could signal a shift in monetary policy and increased volatility.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWUSD:The US dollar strengthened across the board heading into the weekend as traders hedged on risks of a potential ground invasion. This morning, we are seeing some weakness as those hedges get unwound. The focus remains solely on the US-Iran negotiations and there’s some cautious optimism as Pakistan confirmed that negotiations may take place in Islamabad in the coming days and Trump said that they are performing extremely well and they could make a deal pretty soon, although he added that they might fail as well.The path of least resistance for the dollar remains to the upside. Traders will keep a watchful eye on the headlines and especially on Trump’s Truth Social account, as we are always one post away from huge market moves. Traders are not pricing in any change to interest rates this year as we have just 5 bps of tightening expected by year-end.INR:The Indian rupee opened higher today after the RBI capped the open positions banks can hold in the onshore currency market at $100 million at the end of each trading day. This measure was announced on Friday after market close. The central bank continues to intervene in the market but with no avail. In fact, the gains were quickly faded, and the rupee is now trading around Friday levels again. Traders continue to focus on the US-Iran negotiations and the risks of further escalation. If we do get an escalation like a ground invasion, then we will likely see the USDINR pair skyrocketing again. On the other hand, if the US and Iran reach a deal or Trump decides to pull back militarily and end the hostilities, then we should get a meaningful correction. In the big picture, the Indian Rupee remains on a bearish structural trend against the US dollar, so the dip-buyers will likely look for opportunities around strong technical levels to keep pushing into new highs.USDINR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that USDINR opened near the upper bound of the broken channel and rose immediately as dip-buyers quickly piled in to fade the intervention. If the price falls back to the upper bound of the channel, we can expect the buyers to step in to keep pushing into new highs. The sellers will need the price to fall below the upper bound of the channel to regain some control and target a bigger correction into the lower bound of the channel. USDINR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see how quickly traders faded the RBI’s intervention once again. The price is now trading right around Friday’s levels. We can expect the sellers to step in here with a defined risk above the highs to position for a drop back into the upper bound of the channel. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into new highs.USDINR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, there’s not much we can add here as the sellers will look for a pullback into the lower bound of the channel, while the buyers will target a break.UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we have Fed Chair Powell speaking. Tomorrow, we get the US Consumer Confidence and US Job Openings data. On Wednesday, we have the US ADP, the US Retail Sales and the US ISM Manufacturing PMI. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US NFP report. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The recent strength of the US dollar could impact crypto assets like SOL, currently at $83.88. As traders unwind hedges against geopolitical risks, the dollar’s fluctuations can lead to volatility in the crypto market. SOL’s current price suggests it’s holding strong, but if the dollar continues to gain traction, we might see a pullback in altcoins as investors flock to safer assets. Keep an eye on the US-Iran negotiations; any positive developments could further bolster the dollar, leading to a potential dip in SOL. On the flip side, if tensions escalate, we could see a flight to crypto as a hedge, providing support for SOL. Watch for key support levels around $80 and resistance near $85. Monitoring these levels on a daily chart will be crucial for short-term trading strategies. 📮 Takeaway Watch SOL closely around $80 for support; a break below could signal further downside, while resistance at $85 could trigger profit-taking.

The study notes that the costs of tariffs enacted by the Trump administration are “falling mostly on domestic importers and consumers”. In putting a number to that, the study reveals that US consumers are bearing around a third of the tariff burden currently. And if the tariffs are going to stay for longer, that cost will increase even more.For now, it is noted that US exporters are only absorbing a small fraction of the higher tariff-related costs. It is being estimated that a 10% increase in tariffs implies only a 9.5% increase in prices.Overall, it is a tough situation for US consumers. The current estimate shows that they are already being burdened by about a third of the cost. But if US firms exhaust their ability to absorb the tariffs and pass it on down the chain, the burden for households could rise to over half.This also implies that US firms would absorb 40% of higher tariff costs in the longer-term should the extent to which exporters absorb tariffs remains limited in scope.While the US is the one being hit hardest from their own tariffs, European exporters are not immune to the situation. The study predicts that a 10% increase in tariffs would also result in a 4.3% decline in import volumes in the case of product categories that are still traded under tariffs.The full study can be found here. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Tariffs are hitting US consumers hard, and here’s why that matters for traders: the economic ripple effects could impact consumer spending and inflation rates. With around a third of the tariff burden falling on domestic importers and consumers, we might see shifts in retail sales and consumer sentiment, which are critical indicators for market performance. If consumer spending declines, it could lead to weaker earnings reports from major retailers, potentially dragging down stock prices in the retail sector and affecting related markets like commodities and forex. Traders should keep an eye on upcoming economic data releases, particularly retail sales figures and inflation reports, as these will provide insight into how consumers are reacting to the tariffs. If inflation rises alongside a drop in consumer spending, we could see increased volatility in both the stock and forex markets. Watch for key support and resistance levels in major indices and currency pairs, as these could signal broader market trends influenced by consumer behavior. 📮 Takeaway Monitor retail sales and inflation data closely; a decline in consumer spending could trigger volatility in stocks and forex markets.