Investors are most long commodities since April 2022; stock market sentiment turns bearishIran’s Supreme Leader says “not the right time for peace”, US and Israel must be defeatedGermany March ZEW economic sentiment index -0.5 vs 39.0 expectedStrait of Hormuz disruption keeps oil prices supported; de-escalation is the only fixItaly February final CPI +1.5% vs +1.6% y/y prelimMilitary escorts not a sustainable solution to opening up Strait of Hormuz, says IMO chiefGold remains stuck in a tight range as traders await new catalysts to trigger a breakoutSwitzerland February producer and import prices -0.3% vs -0.2% m/m priorWhat are the main events for today?One down, six more to go on the week..FX option expiries for 17 March 10am New York cutRBA governor Bullock: If we have to change tack on policy, we will do soRBA governor Bullock: Cash rate was not high enough to bring inflation back to the targetAussie dollar sees a mixed reaction as the RBA delivers another rate hike todayIt’s been a light session in terms of news releases and market moves. On the data front, the main highlight was the German ZEW survey which collapsed to -0.5 vs 58.3 in the prior month. The US-Iran war and the surge in energy prices were responsible for this poor reading.On the news front, we just got a Reuters report saying that Iran’s new Supreme Leader has rejected proposals aimed at de-escalating tensions with the United States and Israel according to a senior Iranian official.The official told Reuters that Khamenei’s stance for revenge against the US and Israel was “very tough and serious”. He reportedly told the session that the Islamic Republic would not seek to reduce tensions until the US and Israel are defeated and forced to pay compensation for damages.On the markets front, the US dollar continues to pull back from the highs reached in the final part of last week on what looks like profit-taking from extreme levels rather than a change in fundamentals as we haven’t got any meaningful catalyst to trigger a reversal yet. Looking at the other markets, it’s been mostly boring rangebound price action as traders await new developments on the US-Iran front. Oil prices eased from the Monday highs but the path of least resistance remains to the upside.In the American session, we only have the weekly US ADP jobs data which hasn’t been a market-moving report for a long time now. Despite the very weak NFP report, all the other labour market data, including the ADP, have been pointing to stabilisation. The NFP might have been just a blip, but if we start to see deterioration in other data as well, then the Fed will have to take a hard decision because both the mandates will be in tension. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight With investors heavily long on commodities since April 2022, the market’s bearish stock sentiment is raising eyebrows. The recent comments from Iran’s Supreme Leader indicate geopolitical tensions are far from easing, which could keep oil prices elevated. The ZEW economic sentiment index from Germany, coming in at -0.5 versus the expected 39.0, signals a significant downturn in economic outlook, potentially impacting European equities. Traders should watch for how these factors interplay; if oil prices remain buoyed due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, commodities could continue to outperform stocks. However, the bearish sentiment in equities suggests a potential rotation out of risk assets, which could lead to increased volatility. Here’s the thing: while commodities are currently favored, the underlying economic indicators hint at a broader risk-off environment. Keep an eye on the S&P 500 and key support levels; a break below recent lows could trigger further selling pressure. Watch for any signs of de-escalation in geopolitical tensions, as that could shift sentiment quickly. 📮 Takeaway Monitor the S&P 500 for key support levels; a break below recent lows could signal increased selling pressure amid bearish sentiment.

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Global investors turn bearish as Iran and private credit concerns end “frothy bull” sentimentNet 45% of investors expect higher global CPI in the next 12 months, up from 9% a month agoNet 17% of investors expect lower short-term rates, lowest since February 2023 and down from 46% a month agoMeasure of risk sentiment drops to 5.6 from 8.2 a month ago, but well above April 2025’s 1.8Investors are most long commodities since April 2022 with a net 34% overweightNet 53% of investors were overweight emerging-market equities, the highest since February 2021Participants had the lowest allocation to consumer discretionary stocks since December 2022USD positioning swung rapidly from record underweight a month ago to neutral levelsGeopolitics and inflation now top tail risks, replacing AI bubble concernsThe Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey (FMS) is one of the most influential monthly reports in the financial world. It polls roughly 200 to 400 institutional fund managers (people managing hundreds of billions of dollars in hedge funds, pension funds, and mutual funds) to see how they are positioned in the markets.It’s useful as a contrarian indicator. In fact, when positioning gets overstretched on one side or the other, the risk of aggressive unwinding increases. We’ve seen what happened with precious metals in late January and with the US dollar this month. Complacency is punished in the markets. There’s generally a catalyst triggering the reversals or just multiple factors signalling an inflection point.In the March survey, we can see that the stock market sentiment has finally pulled back from “frothy” levels. This is great news for the bulls as once the US-Iran war ends, the relief rally will have much more room to run and we will probably see new record highs quickly. We can also notice that investors don’t expect rate cuts anytime soon now, which shouldn’t be surprising given the hawkish repricing we’ve experienced in the past couple of weeks. This opens up a nice asymmetric opportunity if the rate hike bets prove to be wrong.The record US dollar shorts have now been unwound and the positioning is back to neutral levels. The USD is likely to selloff once the US-Iran war ends as rate cut bets would likely return and the positive sentiment would push the other major currencies up.Lastly, investors are most bullish commodities since April 2022. Again, not surprising with oil prices trading around 2022 levels and energy generally having the biggest weight in commodity indices. We will see an aggressive reversal in oil prices once the US-Iran war ends. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Investor sentiment just flipped bearish, and here’s why that matters: rising inflation expectations and credit concerns could shake markets. With 45% of investors now anticipating higher global CPI, up from just 9% last month, it signals a significant shift in outlook. This inflationary pressure could prompt central banks to reconsider their interest rate strategies, especially with only 17% expecting lower short-term rates—down from 46% last month. Traders should keep an eye on how these expectations affect asset classes, particularly equities and commodities, which often react sharply to inflation data. If inflation continues to rise, we might see a sell-off in risk assets as investors seek safety. On the flip side, this bearish sentiment could create buying opportunities in undervalued sectors. Watch for key technical levels in major indices; a break below recent support could trigger further declines. Keep an eye on upcoming CPI reports and central bank communications for clues on future rate movements. 📮 Takeaway Monitor inflation data closely; a sustained rise could trigger a sell-off in risk assets, especially if indices break key support levels.