Every military analyst in the world warned that Iran would try to shut down the Strait of Hormuz but Trump evidently didn’t prepare for it. Now he’s asking for China and other countries for help in opening it.His latest message:Many Countries, especially those who are affected by Iran’s attempted closure of the Hormuz Strait, will be sending War Ships, in conjunction with the United States of America, to keep the Strait open and safe. We have already destroyed 100% of Iran’s Military capability, but it’s easy for them to send a drone or two, drop a mine, or deliver a close range missile somewhere along, or in, this Waterway, no matter how badly defeated they are. Hopefully China, France, Japan, South Korea, the UK, and others, that are affected by this artificial constraint, will send Ships to the area so that the Hormuz Strait will no longer be a threat by a Nation that has been totally decapitated. In the meantime, the United States will be bombing the hell out of the shoreline, and continually shooting Iranian Boats and Ships out of the water. One way or the other, we will soon get the Hormuz Strait OPEN, SAFE, and FREE! President DONALD J. TRUMPThis comes after he announced late yesterday that he bombed military targets on Kharg Island, which is where Iran loads and exports much of its oil. However he didn’t attack the oil infrastructure but said he would “reconsider” if Iran interfered with ships in Hormuz.All this is looking like a bigger mess than ever. He also said that Iran wants to negotiate but he doesn’t want to but that’s a tough one to believe and it’s more likely that Iran has asked for far more than the US is willing to give, including security guarantees. A Reuters report just now says Trump has rejected efforts by Middle East allies to start negotiations and it also says Iran won’t talk until US/Israel strikes stopSo the plan now appears to be for naval escorts through Hormuz but all reports suggest that can’t happen until month end. Even uber-hawk John Bolton (Trump’s former national security advisor) is now criticizing this mission.”I favor regime change in Iran, but I’m deeply worried that inadequate preparation will prevent that goal from being achieved. There seem to be holes in the strategy, from the lack of coordination with the opposition, to the lapse in preparing the American people ahead of the attack,” he writes.In any case, it appears we’re onto Plan B now, which is hope the naval escorts work, though that can’t possibly be a permanent solution. Meanwhile, Iran’s military doesn’t appear to be defeated as vdeos circulating online showed thick clouds of black smoke coming from Fujairah, a coastal city that hosts a major port in the UAE. Iran said the attacks on Kharg Island originated from that country.The thing that scares me here is Russia. They’re an ally of Iran and have every reason to try and prolong this war and send oil prices to the stratosphere. What a mess. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz could send shockwaves through global oil markets, impacting prices and trader sentiment. With a significant percentage of the world’s oil supply passing through this narrow passage, any disruption could lead to immediate price spikes. Traders should be on high alert for volatility in crude oil futures, particularly if tensions escalate further. Moreover, this situation could affect related assets like the US dollar and emerging market currencies, especially those heavily reliant on oil exports. If Iran’s actions lead to a sustained closure, we might see a shift in trading strategies, with investors flocking to safe havens like gold or the dollar. Keep an eye on key resistance levels in oil prices; a breach above recent highs could trigger a wave of speculative buying. On the flip side, if diplomatic efforts succeed quickly, we could see a sharp reversal in oil prices, creating a potential buying opportunity for those looking to capitalize on short-term fluctuations. Watch for news updates and any shifts in military posturing, as these will be crucial in determining market direction. 📮 Takeaway Monitor crude oil prices closely; any escalation in the Strait of Hormuz situation could lead to significant volatility and potential trading opportunities.

MUFG analysts Lin Li, Michael Wan, Lloyd Chan and Khang Sek Lee highlight that Asian currencies and rates are vulnerable as the Iran conflict threatens Oil supply via the Strait of Hormuz. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The Iran conflict is shaking up Asian currencies and rates, and here’s why you should care: With tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, oil supply disruptions could send crude prices soaring, impacting inflation and central bank policies across Asia. Traders need to keep an eye on how this plays out, especially with currencies like the Japanese Yen and Australian Dollar, which are sensitive to commodity price shifts. If oil spikes, expect central banks to react, potentially leading to interest rate adjustments that could further destabilize these currencies. On the flip side, if the conflict escalates, safe-haven assets like the US Dollar might strengthen, creating a ripple effect across forex pairs. Watch for key levels in USD/JPY and AUD/USD; a break above certain resistance points could signal a shift in market sentiment. Keep your charts handy and monitor news closely, as volatility could ramp up quickly in response to geopolitical developments. 📮 Takeaway Watch USD/JPY and AUD/USD closely; a spike in oil prices could lead to significant currency shifts in the coming days.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, extends its advance on Friday and is set for a second consecutive weekly gain amid escalating Middle East tensions, which continue to boost demand for the US Dollar (USD). 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The DXY’s rise signals a flight to safety, and here’s why that matters: With the US Dollar Index gaining for the second week in a row, traders should pay attention to how geopolitical tensions can drive currency movements. The ongoing unrest in the Middle East is pushing investors toward the USD, traditionally viewed as a safe haven. This trend could lead to further strength in the dollar, especially if the situation escalates. Traders might want to consider short positions in currencies negatively correlated with the USD, like the Euro or British Pound, as they may weaken against the dollar’s strength. But don’t overlook the potential for volatility. If tensions ease or if there’s a significant shift in market sentiment, we could see a rapid reversal. Keep an eye on key levels in the DXY—if it breaks above recent highs, it could signal a stronger bullish trend. Conversely, a pullback could provide a buying opportunity for those looking to enter long positions on the dollar. Watch for economic data releases next week that could impact the dollar’s trajectory, particularly any shifts in interest rate expectations from the Fed. 📮 Takeaway Monitor the DXY closely; a break above recent highs could signal further dollar strength, while easing tensions may prompt a reversal.

Commerzbank’s Senior Economist Dr. Henry Hao expects upcoming China data to confirm a structural divergence: Industrial Production around 5.5% year-on-year, supported by a 21.8% export surge in green tech, versus modest 3.0% retail sales and subdued Fixed-Asset Investment near 1.5%. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight China’s upcoming data is a mixed bag, and here’s why that matters for traders: With industrial production expected to rise 5.5% year-on-year, driven by a robust 21.8% surge in green tech exports, there’s a clear signal of strength in certain sectors. However, the retail sales forecast of just 3.0% and a mere 1.5% in fixed-asset investment suggest a broader economic slowdown. This divergence could impact commodities and currencies tied to Chinese demand, like copper and the Australian dollar. Traders should keep an eye on how these figures play out, especially if they deviate from expectations. A stronger industrial production figure could bolster commodity prices, while weak retail sales might trigger a sell-off in consumer-related stocks. The flip side is that if the data disappoints, we could see a ripple effect across global markets, particularly in sectors sensitive to Chinese growth. Watch for key levels in commodities and related currencies, as a break below recent support could signal further downside. Keep an eye on the release date for these figures, as volatility is likely to spike around that time. 📮 Takeaway Monitor China’s industrial production and retail sales data closely; a divergence could impact commodities and the Australian dollar significantly.

In our update from December 19 last year, we introduced mid-term election-year seasonality, showing an important peak would be due around April 18. See Figure 1 below. A seasonality chart is based on closing prices and portrays relative price movement. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight April 18 is shaping up to be a key date for market movements, and here’s why: Election-year seasonality often brings volatility, and traders should prepare for potential price swings as we approach this date. Historically, mid-term elections can lead to increased trading activity and shifts in investor sentiment, particularly in sectors sensitive to political changes. As we near April, keep an eye on how major indices respond—if they start trending up or down, it could signal broader market sentiment leading into the election. Also, consider how this may impact correlated assets like commodities or currencies, especially those tied to government policy. If you’re trading equities, watch for any significant price levels around this time, as breakouts or reversals could provide actionable opportunities. The real story is that while many traders might overlook this seasonal trend, those who capitalize on it could gain an edge in their strategies. 📮 Takeaway Mark April 18 on your calendar; it could trigger significant market volatility tied to election-year seasonality.