The USD made new highs vs the EUR, JPY and GBP for the year today, but is seeing some corrective action ahead of the dump of data today. At 8:30 AM ET:PCE is expected to rise by 0.3% MoM and 2.9% YoY. The core is expected at 0.4% MoM and 3.1% YoY (vs 3.0% last month). Durable goods orders for January are expected at 1.2% versus -1.4% last month. Ex transportation is expected at 0.5% versus 1.0% last month. NonDef Cap goods are expected at 0.5% versus 0.8%.GDP 2nd revision is expected 1.4% change from the previous estimate.In the video above, I take a look at the 3 major currency pairs from a technical perspective. With the dollar moving to ahigh, and backing off, there is risk of a failure and disappointment. What would increase the disappointment for the 3 major currency pairs is the important take away from the morning video today. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The USD’s recent highs against the EUR, JPY, and GBP signal a strong dollar trend, but today’s data dump could shift momentum. With the PCE data set to release at 8:30 AM ET, traders should be on high alert. A 0.3% MoM increase in PCE and 2.9% YoY could reinforce the Fed’s hawkish stance, potentially pushing the USD even higher. Conversely, if the data disappoints, we might see a quick pullback. Watch how the USD reacts around key levels—if it holds above recent highs, it could indicate further strength. But if it slips, particularly below support levels against these currencies, it might trigger a broader risk-off sentiment. Here’s the thing: while the dollar’s strength is impressive, it’s crucial to consider the broader implications on commodities and equities. A stronger dollar often pressures gold and oil prices, so keep an eye on those correlations as well. Also, monitor how institutional players react to the PCE numbers; their positioning could dictate market direction in the short term. 📮 Takeaway Watch the PCE data closely; a strong reading could push the USD higher, while a miss might trigger a pullback, especially if it falls below recent support levels.

Prior -24.8KUnemployment rate: 6.7% vs 6.6% expectedPrior 6.5%Full-time employment change: -108.4K vs +44.9k last monthPart-time employment change: +24.5K vs -69.7K last monthParticipation rate: 64.9% vs 65.0% last monthAverage hourly wages (permanent, YoY): 4.2% vs 3.3% last monthFull report hereThis is an awful jobs report. The Canadian dollar is selling off across the board.StatCan notes that “employment declines in February were recorded in services-producing industries (-56,000; -0.3%) and goods-producing industries (-28,000; -0.7%). The largest declines were in wholesale and retail trade (-18,000; -0.6%), and ‘other services’ such as personal and repair services (-14,000; -1.8%).”In February, the number of people working full-time declined by 108,000 (-0.6%), offsetting growth recorded over the previous two months. At the same time, there was little variation in the number of people working part-time in February. On a year-over-year basis, there was little change in the number of people working full-time or part-time.Despite the bleak data, traders are still pricing a rate hike from the BoC by year-end as elevated oil prices continue to drive inflation expectations. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The latest Canadian jobs report is a shocker, and here’s why it matters: a significant drop in full-time employment and a higher unemployment rate could trigger further CAD weakness. With the unemployment rate rising to 6.7% against an expected 6.6%, and a full-time employment change of -108.4K, traders should brace for volatility in the CAD and related markets. This disappointing data suggests a struggling labor market, which could lead the Bank of Canada to reconsider its monetary policy stance. If the CAD continues to weaken, we might see a corresponding uptick in ETH, currently at $2,067.60, as traders look for safe havens or alternative investments. Keep an eye on the CAD/ETH correlation; a sustained CAD sell-off could push ETH higher as investors seek refuge. Here’s the flip side: if the market overreacts, we could see a short-term bounce in the CAD as traders take profits. Watch for key support levels in ETH around $2,000 and resistance at $2,100. The next few days will be crucial for gauging market sentiment and potential reversals. 📮 Takeaway Monitor ETH’s movement closely; if it breaks above $2,100, it could signal a bullish trend amid CAD weakness.

Prior estimate 1.4%GDP 2nd estimate 0.7% versus 1.4% preliminary. This is well below the expectations going into the 1st cut of the GDP (was expecting 3.0%).GDP Deflator 3.8% vs 3.6% est. and 3.7% preliminary Core PCE 2.7% versus 2.7% estimate and 2.7% preliminary GDP sales preliminary 0.4% versus 1.2% preliminary.Consumer spending 2.0% versus 2.4% preliminaryPCE price is preliminary 2.9% versus 2.9% preliminaryPCE X food, energy, and housing 2.8% versus 2.8% preliminary PCE services excluding energy and housing 3.6% versus 3.6% preliminaryOf note, the initial estimate for GDP growth was 3.0%, but subsequent revisions showed weaker underlying components. Government spending was reduced due to the effects of the government shutdown, contributing to the downward revision. Net exports were also revised lower, with exports accounting for the largest portion of that decline. In addition, both investment and consumer spending were adjusted lower compared to the first estimate, signaling softer demand than initially reported.Real final sales to private domestic purchasers—a key measure of underlying demand combining consumer spending and private fixed investment—rose 1.9% in Q4, revised down from the prior estimate by 0.5 percentage point.Inflation measures were little changed. The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 3.8%, revised up slightly by 0.1 percentage point. The PCE price index rose 2.9%, unchanged from the previous estimate, while core PCE (excluding food and energy) increased 2.7%, also unchanged from the prior estimate.Details from the BEAReal GDP increased at an annual rate of 0.7 percent (0.2 percent at a quarterly rate 1) in the fourth quarter, a downward revision of 0.7 percentage point from the previous estimate, reflecting downward revisions to exports, consumer spending, government spending, and investment.The downward revision to exports reflected a downward revision to services (led by charges for the use of intellectual property), reflecting updated data from BEA’s International Transactions Accounts.The downward revision to consumer spending reflected a downward revision to services that was partly offset by an upward revision to goods. Within services, the largest contributor to the downward revision was health care (both hospital and nursing home services as well as outpatient services), based on new fourth-quarter data from the U.S. Census Bureau Quarterly Services Survey (QSS). Within goods, the upward revisions were widespread, based on revised U.S. Census Bureau Monthly Retail Trade Survey data for November and December.Within government, the revision primarily reflected a downward revision to state and local government structures investment, based on revised October and new November and December U.S. Census Bureau Value of Construction Put in Place (VPIP) data.Within investment, the revision reflected downward revisions to structures and intellectual property products. The revision to structures was led by manufacturing structures, based on revised October and new November and December U.S. Census Bureau VPIP data. The revision to intellectual property products primarily reflected a downward revision to software, based on new U.S Census Bureau QSS data.Impact of the Shutdown from the BEAThe partial federal government shutdown from October 1 to November 12, 2025 weighed on Q4 growth. While the full impact cannot be precisely measured because it is embedded in broader data, the BEA estimates that reduced labor services from furloughed federal workers lowered real GDP growth by about 1.0 percentage point in the fourth quarter.Because furloughed employees ultimately received back pay, the shutdown did not affect current-dollar federal compensation, but it temporarily raised the measured price of federal employee compensation.For 2025Real GDP grew 2.1% in 2025, revised down slightly by 0.1 percentage point from the prior estimate, with growth primarily driven by increases in consumer spending and investment.On the inflation side, the price index for gross domestic purchases rose 2.6%, unchanged from the previous estimate. The PCE price index also increased 2.6%, while core PCE (excluding food and energy) rose 2.8%, both unchanged from earlier estimates.Looking ahead to 2026The Q1 estimate for GDP from the Atlanta Fed GDP model estimates Q1 growth at 2.7% given released data. Having said that, the model estimated Q4 growth at 3.0% going into the 1st estimate. When it came in at 1.4% it showed a crack from prior model estimates. That may have been skewed by the government shutdown. Will the bounce back be greater than estimated in Q1? What will the war impact (higher energy costs) flow through? Time will tell, but data will be more volatile.For the BEA release, CLICK HERE This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The GDP revision to 0.7% is a wake-up call for traders: economic growth is stalling. With expectations initially set at 3.0%, this sharp decline signals potential weakness in consumer spending and overall economic activity. The GDP deflator at 3.8% also suggests inflationary pressures are still present, complicating the Fed’s path forward. For day traders and swing traders, this could mean increased volatility in equities and possibly a flight to safety in bonds or gold. Watch for how the market reacts to these numbers, especially in sectors sensitive to consumer spending like retail and discretionary goods. If the market starts pricing in a more dovish Fed, we might see shifts in interest rate expectations, impacting forex pairs like USD/JPY or EUR/USD. Here’s the flip side: if the market overreacts to this data, it could create buying opportunities in oversold sectors. Keep an eye on key technical levels in major indices; a break below recent support could trigger further selling pressure. The next few trading sessions will be crucial as investors digest this information and adjust their positions accordingly. 📮 Takeaway Monitor the reaction in equities and forex markets; a break below key support levels could signal further downside risk.

Prior was +2.9% PCE M/M +0.3% vs +0.3% expectedPrior +0.4%Core PCE Y/Y +2.8% vs +3.1% expectedPrior +3.0%Core PCE M/M +0.4% vs +0.4% expectedPrior +0.4%Consumer spending and income for January:Personal income +0.4% vs +0.5% expectedPrior +0.3%Personal spending 0.4% vs +0.4% expected Prior +0.3%Real personal spending +0.1% vs +0.1% priorThis is a problematic report for the Federal Reserve doves. The numbers were mostly in-line with expectations but if you zoom in, that’s back-to-back months of +0.4% core PCE. You don’t need too many more months like that to get to 2% inflation and those numbers will stay in the y/y calculation for the next 10 months. In addition, the energy price shock is coming.For some background, the Personal Income and Outlays report, published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, includes the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index — the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation. Unlike the CPI, which uses a fixed basket, the PCE index accounts for changes in consumer behavior through a chain-weighted methodology, giving it a broader and more adaptive scope.In December 2025, the headline PCE price index rose 0.4 percent month over month, an acceleration from 0.2 percent gains in both October and November. On a year-over-year basis, headline PCE climbed to 2.9 percent, up from 2.8 percent in November and continuing a gradual upward drift from the 2.5–2.7 percent range that prevailed through mid-2025. Core PCE, which strips out food and energy, also rose 0.4 percent on the month and reached 3.0 percent year over year — its highest reading since February 2025 and a notable step up from the 2.8 percent pace that had held relatively steady for several months.On the spending side, nominal PCE increased 0.4 percent, but after adjusting for inflation, real spending grew just 0.1 percent, a deceleration from November. Services spending drove the gains while goods spending contracted in real terms. Personal income rose 0.3 percent, though real disposable income was essentially flat. The personal saving rate slipped to 3.6 percent, its lowest since October 2022 and down from 4.9 percent as recently as May, suggesting consumers were increasingly drawing down savings to sustain spending.The December report was released on February 20, delayed from its original late-January date due to the government shutdown. The uptick in core PCE reinforced expectations that the Fed would hold rates steady in the near term, with markets attentive to whether the reversal of the disinflationary trend would persist into 2026. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The latest PCE data shows a mixed bag, and here’s why that matters: inflation pressures are easing, but consumer spending isn’t as robust as hoped. Core PCE year-over-year at 2.8% versus the expected 3.1% indicates a cooling trend, which could influence the Fed’s future rate decisions. However, personal income growth at 0.4% falling short of expectations suggests consumers might be tightening their belts, potentially impacting retail stocks and broader market sentiment. Traders should keep an eye on the implications for interest rates, especially if inflation continues to decline. If the Fed sees sustained lower inflation, we might see a shift in monetary policy that could affect everything from equities to forex pairs. On the flip side, the market might be overreacting to these numbers. If consumer spending picks up unexpectedly in the coming months, we could see a rebound in sectors tied to discretionary spending. Watch for key resistance levels in the S&P 500 around recent highs, as a break could signal a bullish trend despite the current data. Keep an eye on the next PCE release and any Fed commentary for potential volatility in the markets. 📮 Takeaway Monitor the next PCE release closely; a sustained drop in inflation could shift Fed policy, impacting equities and forex significantly.

US equity futures are flirting with the best levels of the pre-market following a wave of economic data that points to rate cuts if/when the US or Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz.Notable in the pre-market news was a report saying that Trump told other world leaders earlier this week that he expected Iran to surrender shortly. We also heard from Hegseth who claimed that Iran’s new supreme leader is “wounded and likely disfigured”. A new report also said France and Italy opened talks with Iran in the hopes of securing safe passage for its oil.All that’s leading to some optimism the war can be wrapped up shortly, though there are certainly cogent arguments that the US has overplayed its hand and the oil can be cut off for months.In terms of economic data, the numbers today likely boosted the case for a rate cut. Notably, US GDP in Q4 was cut in half to 0.7% from 1.4%. That comes after many weeks of the Atlanta Fed tracker saying it would be +5% and dozens of White House pundits touting super-strong growth based on that flawed metric (which was particularly skewed by the US government shutdown). On the inflation front, PCE numbers were entirely in-line with expectations.As a result, S&P 500 futures are up 0.5% after rising as high as 0.7% in the immediate aftermath of the data.There is no doubt that economic data is secondary at the moment but it will quickly become primary again when the war ends. At the moment, the market is sensing some possibility of a breakthrough on the weekend and is still hanging onto Trump’s 4-5 week timeline, which he said had been significantly moved up. Expect another day of volatile trading today and for the market to bounce around based on war reports and tweets. WTI crude was last down $3.44 to $92.25. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight US equity futures are showing strength, hinting at potential rate cuts ahead. The recent economic data suggests that if the US or Iran reopens the Strait of Hormuz, we could see a shift in monetary policy. This is crucial for traders as it could lead to a risk-on environment, pushing equities higher. Keep an eye on key levels in the S&P 500; a break above recent highs could trigger further buying. However, the geopolitical tension remains a wild card—any escalation could reverse this optimism quickly. So, while the pre-market excitement is palpable, remember that volatility could spike if news from Iran shifts unexpectedly. Watch for reactions from major indices and sectors that are sensitive to interest rates, like tech and financials, as they could lead the charge or pull back sharply depending on the news flow. 📮 Takeaway Monitor S&P 500 levels closely; a breakout could signal a strong bullish trend, but geopolitical risks remain a significant factor.

The USDCHF moved to its highest level since January 23 earlier in the session as the U.S. dollar attracted buying interest. Since that high, the pair has retraced part of the advance, but it continues to hold a gain of about 0.19% on the day, keeping the bullish tone intact for now.Key support tested on the dipThe pullback brought the price down to an important short-term barometer level at 0.7862. This level represents the 50% midpoint of the move down from the November 2025 high at 0.81237 to the January 2026 low at 0.75915, which comes in at 0.78625.The area is also reinforced by multiple swing lows from December, making it a technically significant support zone.So far, the corrective move lower has held that support. The price dipped to 0.7861 before bouncing, and the pair is currently trading near 0.7871.What keeps buyers in control?As long as 0.7862 continues to hold as support, buyers maintain the near-term advantage and the broader push higher remains intact.However, a break below that level would shift the short-term bias back toward the sellers, with downside targets coming in near 0.7837, followed by 0.78175.Video breakdownIn the video, I walk through the key technical levels driving the USDCHF move, explain why the 0.7862 level is such an important pivot for buyers and sellers, and outline the next upside and downside targets traders should be watching going into the next trading sessions. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The USDCHF hitting its highest point since January 23 signals strong dollar demand, but traders need to watch for potential retracement risks. The recent bullish momentum in USDCHF, currently up about 0.19%, reflects broader market sentiment favoring the U.S. dollar amid ongoing economic data releases. This uptick could be tied to expectations around interest rate decisions, which often drive currency movements. Traders should keep an eye on key resistance levels around recent highs, as a failure to maintain these could lead to profit-taking and a pullback. If the pair starts to retrace significantly, it could indicate a shift in sentiment, especially if correlated assets like EURUSD also show weakness. On the flip side, if the dollar continues to strengthen, it may push USDCHF even higher, potentially breaking through established resistance. Monitoring economic indicators, particularly U.S. employment and inflation data, will be crucial in gauging the dollar’s trajectory. Watch for any signs of reversal or consolidation around current levels, as these could provide actionable trading opportunities. 📮 Takeaway Keep an eye on USDCHF’s resistance levels; a break could lead to further gains, while a retracement might signal profit-taking opportunities.

There is one report floating around and it suggests that Marco Rubio reached out to Iran’s leaders this week to open talks on a ceasefire. Iran didn’t even answer. Then the US went through France to try to open up talks and Iran said its goals weren’t achieved yet.What are the goals? A longer-term energy crisis, like $200 oil.The thinking is that Iran has prepared for this fight for generations and is still in a position to execute the strategy, daring the US navy to enter the Strait of Hormuz to try and help ships get through.There is some backing for this talk as the WSJ today reports:Arab diplomats trying to find a diplomatic path out of the war now being waged by the U.S. and Israel against Iran say Tehran, emboldened by its ability to rattle the global economy by choking oil shipments, has laid out steep preconditions for any return to talks.Iran wants firm guarantees it won’t be attacked again along with reparations. These demands were relayed by the Supreme Leader yesterday but we’ve also now learned that he was nearly killed in a strike, with the US saying he’s “disfigured”.There is also the constant braggadocio from top US officials, including Haggseth that the operation is going better than expected and Trump can stop it at any time. The market is skeptical and that’s why the forward curve on crude is marching higher.It’s also starting to get baked into stock markets with the Fear & Greed Index now into extreme territory.That dynamic has Bank of America feeling contrarian.”We suggest fading oil >$100/bbl, US$ (DXY) >100, 30-year UST yield >5%, SPX <6.6k, levels set to provoke war/oil/Fed/tariff policy response to short-circuit Main St risks”It’s compelling and it’s landing somewhat today with all those trades moving in their direction except the dollar.My guess is that everyone is trying to time the TACO and that’s the right move but it depends on your assessment of how bad Iran truly wants to fight and what the US is willing to pledge in order to end the battle. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight So, Iran’s silence on ceasefire talks is a big deal for traders. The lack of response from Iran could signal ongoing geopolitical tensions, which often lead to volatility in oil and forex markets. If tensions escalate, we could see oil prices spike, impacting currencies of oil-exporting nations. Traders should keep an eye on crude oil futures; a break above recent resistance levels could trigger a rally. Additionally, the US dollar might react if the situation worsens, as safe-haven assets typically gain traction during geopolitical instability. But here’s the flip side: if talks resume or if there’s a sudden de-escalation, we could see a sharp correction in oil prices and a strengthening of risk-on currencies. Watch for any updates in the coming days, especially from the US or France, as they might influence market sentiment significantly. Keeping tabs on the daily charts for oil and the USD index will be crucial in navigating this potential volatility. 📮 Takeaway Monitor crude oil prices closely; a breakout above resistance could signal increased volatility in related forex pairs.

Consumer sentiment preliminary for March 55.5 vs 55.0 estimate. Weakest cents December of last year.prior month 56.6.Current conditions 57.8 vs 56.6 prior monthExpectations 54.1 vs 56.6 prior month. Weakest since November of last year.1 year inflation expectations 3.4% vs 3.4% prior month5 year inflation expectations 3.2% vs 3.3% prior monthSurveys of Consumers Director Joanne HsuConsumer sentiment dipped about 2%, reaching its lowest reading of the year. Interviews completed prior to the military action in Iran showed an improvement in sentiment from last month, but lower readings seen during the nine days thereafter completely erased those initial gains. Gasoline prices have exerted the most immediate impact felt by consumers, though the magnitude of passthrough to other prices remains highly uncertain. A broad swath of consumers across incomes, age, and political affiliation all reported declines in expectations for their personal finances, down 7.5% nationally. Interviews for this release were collected between February 17 and March 9, with about half completed after the start of the US military conflict in Iran.This month, year-ahead inflation expectations ended six months of consecutive declines, stalling at 3.4%. The current reading exceeds those seen in 2024 and remains well above the 2.3–3.0% range seen in the two years pre-pandemic. Long-run inflation expectations inched down to 3.2%. In 2024, readings ranged between 2.8% and 3.2%, while in 2019 and 2020, they were consistently below 2.8%. Note that for both time horizons, interviews completed after February 28th exhibited higher inflation expectations than those completed before that date.What it is?Published monthly by the University of Michigan’s Institute for Social Research, the index is based on a survey of approximately 600 households. It is a widely watched leading indicator of U.S. consumer spending, as higher confidence typically correlates with increased economic activity This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Consumer sentiment just hit a low not seen since last December, and here’s why that matters: The preliminary March reading of 55.5, slightly above the 55.0 estimate, signals growing pessimism among consumers. This decline from 56.6 last month reflects concerns about current economic conditions, which dropped to 57.8. The expectations component plummeting to 54.1 is particularly alarming, indicating that consumers are bracing for tougher times ahead. For traders, this sentiment shift could lead to increased volatility in consumer-driven sectors, especially retail and discretionary stocks. If sentiment continues to weaken, we might see a ripple effect across the broader market, impacting everything from equities to commodities. It’s also worth noting that inflation expectations remain stable, with one-year expectations at 3.4% and five-year at 3.2%. This stability might provide some cushion against aggressive monetary tightening, but the overall sentiment suggests that consumers are not confident about future economic growth. Keep an eye on related assets like consumer staples and utilities, which could see inflows as investors seek safety. Watch for any further declines in sentiment; a drop below 54 could trigger more significant market reactions. 📮 Takeaway Monitor consumer sentiment closely; a drop below 54 could lead to increased volatility in retail and discretionary sectors.