Prior +0.3%HICP +1.1% vs +1.1% y/y prelimPrior +0.4%The HICP is the more important measure as that’s what the ECB targets. The final figure matches the preliminary estimate, so there’s nothing to see here.The data hasn’t been much of importance for the market anyway as the focus remains on the US-Iran war and the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz which is keeping oil prices elevated.The market is pricing in two rate hikes for the ECB by year-end. In my opinion, these expectations are overblown as that would just increase the pressure on stock markets, tighten financial conditions further and exacerbate the negative impact on the broader economy. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The HICP data came in as expected, but here’s why that doesn’t matter right now: With the focus shifting to geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Iran, traders should be wary of how these external factors could overshadow economic indicators. While the HICP figures are stable, they aren’t driving market sentiment at the moment. Instead, the volatility stemming from geopolitical developments could create significant price swings across various assets, including forex pairs and commodities. Keep an eye on how the EUR/USD reacts; if tensions escalate, we might see a flight to safety that could push the dollar higher against the euro. Moreover, the market’s indifference to the HICP suggests that traders are prioritizing risk management over economic data. This could lead to unexpected movements as positions are adjusted in response to news. Watch for any sudden shifts in sentiment, especially if the US-Iran situation escalates. The key levels to monitor are the recent highs and lows in the EUR/USD pair, as they could signal the next move based on geopolitical developments. 📮 Takeaway Focus on the EUR/USD reaction to US-Iran tensions; key levels to watch are recent highs and lows for potential volatility.

Prior +2.3%HICP +2.5% vs +2.5% y/y prelimPrior +2.4%Core CPI +2.7% vs +2.6% y/y priorNo changes to the preliminary estimates here. As mentioned for the French CPI, the data hasn’t been much of importance for the market as the focus remains on the US-Iran war and the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz which is keeping oil prices elevated.The market is pricing in two rate hikes for the ECB by year-end. In my opinion, these expectations are overblown as that would just increase the pressure on stock markets, tighten financial conditions further and exacerbate the negative impact on the broader economy. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Inflation data from France is getting overshadowed by geopolitical tensions, and here’s why that’s crucial for traders: While the HICP and Core CPI figures remained stable, the market’s attention is firmly on the US-Iran conflict and its potential impact on oil prices and global supply chains. Traders should be wary of how these geopolitical risks could lead to volatility in not just commodities but also equities and currencies. If tensions escalate, we might see a spike in oil prices, which could ripple through inflation metrics and central bank policies, especially in Europe. Keep an eye on the 2.5% level in HICP—if inflation expectations shift due to these tensions, it could lead to a reassessment of monetary policy across the Eurozone. On the flip side, if the situation stabilizes, we could see a relief rally in risk assets. Watch for any sudden shifts in sentiment or news updates regarding the US-Iran situation, as these could trigger rapid market movements. The next few weeks will be critical, especially with upcoming economic data releases that could further influence trader sentiment. 📮 Takeaway Monitor the 2.5% HICP level closely; geopolitical developments could trigger significant volatility across markets in the coming weeks.

The US dollar started the week on a negative note as the record jump in oil prices got unwound on G7 discussions about emergency oil reserves release and then on Trump’s comment to CBS suggesting that the war could be over soon. The relief rally in risk weighed on the greenback as rate cut bets returned.The positive mood didn’t last long though and the reports of Iran deploying mines in the Strait of Hormuz served as a wake-up call that things could still get worse before they get better. Sure enough, the US dollar restarted its run and as the prospects of a quick end to the war faded, the momentum increased.This morning, we’re seeing the US dollar extending the gains further and it’s now close to August 2025 levels. The are multiple reasons for such strength ranging from the hawkish repricing in interest rates expectations due to elevated oil prices to safe haven demand amid the risk-off sentiment. But the main reason is the unwinding of the overcrowded positioning. Last month, the Bank of America Fund Manager Survey noted record shorts on the US dollar. When you have such extremely crowded positions, you will usually see extreme unwinding once the fundamentals change. This is what happened with precious metals in January when gold fell by more than 20% in a couple of days and silver by more than 40%.The question now is: how much more room does the dollar have to appreciate?There’s no real limit in the short-term as the market is still pricing a bit of Fed easing by year-end, so there’s still some room to unwind those bets. There are basically two scenarios going forward:The war and the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz lasts more than expected leading to a bear market in stocks, tighter financial conditions (even without rate hikes) and eventually an economic recession. In this case, the demand destruction will lead to lower inflation expectations, rate cut bets and eventually a weak US dollar. This is the lower probability scenario.On the other hand, Trump folds as oil prices reach triple digit levels again and stocks fall to new monthly lows. In this case, we should see the same reaction of the one we got when Trump told CBS that the war could be over soon. But this time it would be much stronger. This is the higher probability scenario. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The US dollar’s dip reflects shifting market sentiment, and here’s why that matters: The recent volatility in oil prices, driven by G7 talks on emergency reserves and optimistic comments about the war’s resolution, has created a ripple effect across currencies. Traders should note that the dollar often inversely correlates with oil prices; as oil stabilizes, the dollar could face further downward pressure. This scenario is particularly relevant for those trading USD pairs, as a weaker dollar can boost commodities priced in USD, like gold and silver, making them attractive for long positions. But don’t overlook the potential for a rebound. If oil prices spike again due to geopolitical tensions or supply chain issues, the dollar could regain strength as investors flock to safe havens. Keep an eye on key levels—if the dollar index breaks below recent support, it could signal further weakness. Watch for any shifts in sentiment around oil prices and geopolitical developments, as these will directly impact currency pairs and broader market dynamics. 📮 Takeaway Monitor the dollar index closely; a break below support could lead to further declines, impacting USD pairs and commodity prices in the coming days.

The Swiss Franc (CHF) is experiencing marked losses against both the Euro (EUR) and the US Dollar (USD) as the American session draws to a close on Thursday. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The Swiss Franc’s decline against the Euro and USD signals potential volatility ahead. As the American session wraps up, traders should note that this weakness could stem from broader market sentiment or economic indicators affecting the CHF. If the trend continues, it might indicate a shift in risk appetite, particularly if investors are favoring the USD and EUR over the traditionally stable Swiss Franc. This could trigger a sell-off in CHF pairs, impacting not just forex traders but also those in commodities and equities linked to Swiss exports. Keep an eye on key support levels for the CHF against both the Euro and USD; a break below these could accelerate losses. On the flip side, if the CHF finds support, it could present a buying opportunity for those looking to capitalize on a potential rebound. Watch for any economic data releases from Switzerland that could influence this trend, particularly in the coming days, as they might provide clarity on the CHF’s direction. 📮 Takeaway Monitor CHF support levels closely; a break could lead to increased volatility against EUR and USD in the coming sessions.

Argentina Consumer Price Index (MoM) came in at 2.9%, above expectations (2.7%) in February 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Argentina’s CPI hitting 2.9% is a wake-up call for traders: inflation’s not cooling. This higher-than-expected figure could signal continued volatility in the forex market, especially for the Argentine peso. Traders should be wary of potential interventions from the Central Bank as they try to stabilize the currency amidst rising inflation. If inflation persists, we might see a shift in monetary policy that could affect interest rates, impacting both local and foreign investments. Keep an eye on how this plays out in the coming weeks, as any further spikes could lead to increased volatility in related assets, particularly in commodities and emerging market funds. On the flip side, if the government manages to implement effective measures to curb inflation, we could see a rebound in investor confidence. Watch for any announcements from the Central Bank regarding interest rate adjustments or fiscal policies that could influence market sentiment. The next few months will be crucial for gauging the effectiveness of these strategies and their impact on the peso’s stability. 📮 Takeaway Monitor Argentina’s inflation trends closely; a sustained rise could trigger Central Bank actions affecting the peso and related markets.

AUD/USD turned lower on Thursday, retreating from the multi-year peak of 0.7187 achieved on Wednesday. The Greenback hedged sharply higher as the Middle East war intensified, pushing Oil prices up and fuelling demand for the safe-haven US Dollar (USD). 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight AUD/USD’s drop from 0.7187 highlights a crucial shift in market sentiment. The recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are driving investors towards the USD, a classic safe-haven move. As oil prices surge, the inflationary pressures could further support the dollar, making it a key player in the forex market. Traders should keep an eye on the 0.7100 support level for AUD/USD; a break below could signal further downside, while a bounce might indicate a temporary pullback in the dollar’s strength. Additionally, the correlation between oil prices and the AUD could mean that any volatility in crude could directly impact the Aussie dollar’s trajectory. But here’s the flip side: if the geopolitical situation stabilizes, we might see a reversal, with the AUD regaining strength. Watch for any news that could ease tensions, as that could shift sentiment back towards riskier assets. The immediate focus should be on the daily chart for AUD/USD, particularly around the 0.7100 level, as it could dictate the next move. 📮 Takeaway Monitor the 0.7100 support level for AUD/USD; a break could lead to further declines, while stabilization in the Middle East might reverse the trend.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held his first press conference on Thursday since the war with Iran started and said that they are aiming to stop Iran from moving nuclear and ballistic projects underground, and changing the Middle East. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Netanyahu’s remarks signal escalating geopolitical tensions, and here’s why that matters for traders: The focus on Iran’s nuclear ambitions could lead to increased volatility in oil markets, especially if military actions escalate. Traders should keep an eye on crude oil prices, which often react sharply to Middle Eastern conflicts. If tensions rise, we could see oil breach key resistance levels, potentially pushing prices higher in the short term. Additionally, this situation could impact broader market sentiment, leading to risk-off behavior that might affect equities and currencies linked to emerging markets. But it’s worth noting that while geopolitical tensions often drive prices up, they can also lead to swift corrections if the market perceives a lack of immediate threat. Traders should monitor the situation closely, especially any developments that could indicate a shift in military strategy or diplomatic efforts. Key watchpoints include oil price movements and any statements from major oil producers that could influence supply dynamics. 📮 Takeaway Watch for crude oil prices; a breakout above recent highs could signal increased volatility due to escalating tensions in the Middle East.