The headlines here are starting to weigh on the market mood once again now as Kaabi warns that this could even drive oil prices up to $150 a barrel. He warns that while not all parties in the region have called for a force majeure yet, in which QatarEnergy has already done so, it will eventually happen.Kaabi says that Qatar would expect every exporter in the Gulf region to eventually call for a force majeure “in the next few days that this continues”. Adding that as the conflict becomes more prolonged, “everybody’s energy price is going to go higher”.For now, he maintains that there is no damage to Qatar’s offshore operations but their onshore capacity remains unclear. Kaabi says that they are still figuring out the extent of the damage and “it is not clear yet how long it will take to repair”.For some context: QatarEnergy halts LNG production after military attacks on its facilitiesKaabi goes on to warn that if vessels continue to be unable to pass the Strait of Hormuz, that could see crude prices hit $150. That as it would take “weeks to months” for operations to return back to normal, even if the conflict were to end soon.”Our ships are all over the place. Each ship takes a day or two and you can only load six or seven at a time.”The full report can be found here (may be gated).We’re seeing oil prices climb further on the headlines now with WTI crude oil hitting fresh highs of $82.85, up nearly 2% on the day. That is the highest level since July 2024.Meanwhile, US futures are also slumping with S&P 500 futures down 0.3%. In the FX space, the dollar is finding bids across the board after a slower start to the day earlier. EUR/USD is now down 0.2% to 1.1580 from 1.1610 earlier and GBP/USD down 0.1% to 1.3337 from around 1.3370 before the report. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Oil prices are under pressure as geopolitical tensions rise, and here’s why that matters: Kaabi’s warning about potential force majeure in the region could send oil prices soaring to $150 a barrel. This isn’t just a headline; it reflects a growing concern among traders about supply disruptions. If tensions escalate, we could see a spike in volatility, impacting not just oil but also related markets like energy stocks and commodities. Traders should keep an eye on the $100 resistance level for crude oil; a break above that could trigger a rush to buy, while failure to hold could lead to a pullback. But here’s the flip side: if the situation stabilizes, we might see a quick correction. So, it’s crucial to monitor news from the region closely. Look for any announcements regarding force majeure declarations or diplomatic resolutions, as these could shift market sentiment dramatically. The next few weeks will be pivotal, especially with the daily charts showing a potential bullish flag pattern forming. 📮 Takeaway Watch for oil prices to test the $100 level; a breakout could lead to $150, but stability may trigger a pullback.

Prior +0.3%That’s a slight downwards revision to the early readings but it least shows that the euro area economy is still holding up towards the end of last year. As a whole for 2025, euro area GDP is seen increasing by 1.4%. That follows from the 0.9% growth posted in 2024.Looking at the details for Q4, household consumption expenditure contributed 0.2% while government expenditure contributed 0.1% to GDP. Gross fixed capital formation also had a positive contribution (+0.1%) and the overall figure was then slightly offset by negatives in changes in inventories (-0.1%) and exports less imports (-0.1%).Just a shortlist of the best and worst performing economies in the region (Q4 2025 year-on-year percentages), alongside the major ones:Malta (+6.4%)Cyprus (+4.5)Poland (+3.6%)Croatia (+3.3%)Lithuania (+3.1%)Spain (+2.6%)France (+1.2%)Italy (+0.8%)Austria (+0.7%)Hungary (+0.6%)Germany (+0.4%)Finland (+0.1%)Romania (-1.5%) This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The slight downward revision in euro area GDP growth to +0.3% might seem minor, but it signals potential headwinds for traders focused on European assets. With the euro area expected to grow by 1.4% in 2025, this slower growth could impact the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy decisions, particularly if inflation remains stubbornly high. Traders should watch for any shifts in ECB rhetoric, as a more dovish stance could weaken the euro against the dollar, especially if the Fed maintains its current rate path. Additionally, this news could ripple through related markets, affecting equities and commodities tied to European economic performance. It’s worth noting that while the euro area economy is holding up, the revision suggests that growth may not be as robust as previously thought, which could lead to increased volatility in forex pairs like EUR/USD. Keep an eye on key technical levels; a break below recent support could trigger further selling pressure. Watch for upcoming economic indicators that could provide more clarity on the euro area’s trajectory, particularly any shifts in consumer confidence or manufacturing data. 📮 Takeaway Monitor the EUR/USD pair closely; a break below recent support levels could signal further downside as growth forecasts are revised.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWThe S&P 500 has been surprisingly resilient this week even though the US-Iran war kept a lid on the market. The conflict entered its 7th day today and the risk of things deteriorating further and eventually dragging the stock market to new lows remains high. In fact, the longer this war drags on, the worse the consequences will be for the global economy as growth expectations would turn negative and the Fed would not be able to act fast amid the inflationary pressures from higher energy prices. The bias for now remains neutral to bearish, so the bulls will need to wait for clear de-escalation before piling back in.S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that the S&P 500 is trading around the lower bound of the 6,760-7,040 range as the US-Iran war has been weighing on the market. The buyers will likely continue to step in around the support with a defined risk below it to keep targeting the 7,040 resistance. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to pile in for a drop into the 6,540 support next.S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, there’s not much we can add here as the price action has been rangebound amid the US-Iran war. The buyers will continue to step in around the support, while the sellers will look for a break to extend the drop into new lows.S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we have a minor resistance zone around the 6,850 level. If the price gets there, we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the resistance to position for a break below the major support around the 6,750 level. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break to pile in for a rally into the 6,920 resistance next. The red lines define the average daily range for today.UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we conclude the week with the US NFP report but continue to keep an eye on the US-Iran war as that’s what the market is focused on right now. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The S&P 500’s resilience amidst the US-Iran conflict is a double-edged sword for traders. While the index has held steady, the underlying tension could lead to sudden volatility. If the conflict escalates, we might see a sharp sell-off, especially if the S&P breaks below key support levels. Traders should keep an eye on the 4,200 mark; a breach could trigger stop-loss orders and exacerbate losses. On the flip side, if the market continues to hold, it could attract buyers looking for a dip, but that’s a risky play given the geopolitical backdrop. Watch for news updates that could shift sentiment quickly, as the market’s current calm might be deceptive. The real story is how quickly traders react to headlines—be prepared for rapid shifts. In this environment, consider adjusting your positions to hedge against potential downturns while looking for opportunities in sectors that typically perform well during geopolitical tensions, like defense or energy. 📮 Takeaway Monitor the S&P 500 closely; a drop below 4,200 could signal a significant sell-off amid rising geopolitical tensions.

The report notes that Tokyo is considering to release its national oil stockpile, even without coordinated international action.The headline sounds convoluted but there’s more nuance to it when you put things into context. Now, Japan is not an oil exporter and in fact relies heavily on oil imports – one of the biggest economies to do so. And for a better overview, over 90% of Japan’s crude oil imports are drawn from the Middle East. That means almost all of it has to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, which is now in de facto closure.So, why is Japan planning this national oil reserves release?The whole purpose is to try and strategically lower oil prices. Or in their own words if and when the time comes, for “energy security reasons”.The legality of the move is questionable and in practical terms, Japan can’t just outright release reserves for the sole purpose of lowering energy prices. But with the source of their imports now being stifled, there is a literal shortage of physical oil arriving at Japanese refineries.In terms of what kind of buffer Japan has to work with, the country is estimated to hold around 254 days’ worth of oil in its reserves capacity. So, the release of the reserves will at least help to calm the domestic situation before it gets more heated.Now, Japan doesn’t exactly have to seek permission per se in releasing its own oil reserves. However, they are bound by the IEA coordination rule, which requires countries to maintain a minimum of 90 days of net oil imports as emergency reserves.And typically during a global crisis, which this arguably is one, the IEA tends to want to lean towards a more collective and coordinated response. That being by pushing for multiple countries to release oil reserves simultaneously. Hence, why it might be a bit of bad form on the part of Tokyo if they are to push forward with this idea. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Japan’s potential move to release its national oil stockpile could shake up the global oil market. While the headline suggests a unilateral action, it’s crucial to understand that Japan’s heavy reliance on oil imports means this decision is likely a response to rising prices or supply chain concerns. If Tokyo goes ahead, it could signal to other nations that they might need to follow suit, especially if oil prices continue to climb. Traders should keep an eye on WTI and Brent crude prices, as any significant release could lead to a temporary dip in prices. However, there’s a flip side: if Japan’s action fails to stabilize prices, it might lead to increased volatility in the oil market. Watch for reactions from OPEC and other major oil producers, as they could adjust their strategies in response. Key levels to monitor include recent support and resistance zones in crude oil futures, which could guide trading decisions in the coming weeks. 📮 Takeaway Keep an eye on Japan’s oil stockpile release; it could impact WTI and Brent prices significantly, especially if it triggers a broader market response.